Trending Now - Inflation Expected to Rise Soon Despite Recent Stability
WHO:
President Trump
David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation
DeutscheBank analysts
Laura Rosner-Warburton, senior economist at MacroPolicy Perspectives
Austan Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon
Bureau of Labor Statistics
AAA (American Automobile Association)
WHAT:
The February inflation data was gathered before the United States and Israel launched an attack on Iran on February 28th, 2026.
Fuel for heating rose by 3.1% in February 2026.
Food costs rose 3.1% on an annual basis, while food away from home jumped 3.9%.
Gas prices surged by almost 60 cents per gallon, or about 20%, since the outbreak of the Iran war.
Oil prices soared as high as nearly $120 per barrel on March 5th, 2026, before rapidly falling back.
Gas prices jumped to $3.54 a gallon on March 10th, 2026, an increase of about 20% in one month.
Laura Rosner-Warburton expects inflation could jump by as much as 0.8% or 0.9% in March 2026.
Core inflation is expected to have increased 0.3% in February 2026 from the previous month.
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at about 3.6% at its last meeting in January 2026.
The unemployment rate increased from 4.3% in January 2026 to 4.4% in February 2026.
The economy grew at an annualized pace of 1.4% over the final three months of 2025.
Annual inflation rate held steady at 2.4% in February 2026.
Monthly prices rose by 0.3% in February 2026.
Energy prices increased by 0.6% in February 2026.
Fuel oil prices rose by 11.1% in February 2026.
Gasoline prices increased by 0.8% in February 2026.
Core inflation remained unchanged at 2.5% on an annual basis.
U.S. crude oil prices surged to about $86 per barrel on March 10th, 2026.
Average price of gasoline in the U.S. reached $3.53 on March 10th, 2026.
92,000 jobs were lost in February 2026, raising the unemployment rate to 4.4%.
Inflation is projected to jump by 0.8% or 0.9% in March 2026.
Oil prices could soar to $150 per barrel if shipments do not resume.
WHERE:
Strait of Hormuz, located between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.
United States
WHEN:
February 2026 data released on March 11th, 2026.
Iran war began on February 28th, 2026.
Federal Reserve's next interest-rate decision scheduled for March 18th, 2026.
WHY:
The Iran war has caused violent gyrations in oil prices, impacting inflation and consumer costs.
The Iran war has caused a spike in oil prices, impacting inflation.
Economic conditions prior to the Iran war included sluggish hiring and elevated inflation.
HOW:
The Supreme Court invalidated Trump’s most sweeping tariffs toward the end of February 2026, but businesses have yet to receive refunds for overpayments.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures changes in prices of a basket of goods and services.
The Federal Reserve is considering interest rate adjustments in response to inflation and employment data.
(UPDATED March 11, 2026 23:04 UTC)
The February inflation data shows that fuel for heating rose by 3.1%, while food costs increased by 3.1% annually, and food away from home jumped by 3.9%. Gas prices surged to $3.54 a gallon on March 10, reflecting a nearly 20% increase in just one month, largely due to the ongoing conflict in Iran, which has caused significant fluctuations in oil prices. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4% in February, and the economy grew at an annualized pace of 1.4% over the last quarter of 2025, as the Supreme Court invalidated Trump’s sweeping tariffs, leaving businesses awaiting refunds for overpayments.
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(UPDATED March 11, 2026 17:16 UTC)
Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the annual inflation rate held steady at 2.4% in February, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% after 92,000 jobs were lost during the month. Fuel oil prices surged by 11.1%, contributing to a 0.6% increase in energy prices, and U.S. crude oil prices reached about $86 per barrel, with projections suggesting they could soar to $150 if shipments do not resume amid the ongoing Iran war. The Federal Reserve is scheduled to make its next interest-rate decision on March 18, as economic conditions remain affected by sluggish hiring and elevated inflation.