Trending Now - Fed Keeps Interest Rates Steady Amid Iran War Economic Uncertainty

WHO:

President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as the chair of the Federal Reserve.

Jerome Powell is the current chair of the Federal Reserve, set to step down in May 2026.

Gregory Daco is the chief economist at EY-Parthenon.

Sonu Varghese is the chief macro strategist at Carson Group.

Gus Faucher is an economist at PNC.

WHAT:

The Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady at its meeting on March 18, 2026.

The current benchmark interest rate is in a range of 3.5% to 3.75%.

There is a 99% probability that the Fed will maintain the current rate on March 18, 2026.

There is a 95% probability that the Fed will maintain the current rate at its April 30, 2026 meeting.

There is a 77% probability that the Fed will hold steady in June 2026.

Employers shed 92,000 jobs in February 2026.

EY-Parthenon revised its forecast to show only one 0.25-percentage-point rate cut in 2026, likely in December.

WHERE:

The Federal Reserve is based in the United States.

WHEN:

The Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision meeting is on March 18, 2026.

The job market data reported is for February 2026.

President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh in January 2026.

Jerome Powell is set to step down in May 2026.

WHY:

The Iran war is complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding interest rates due to rising oil and gas prices.

Higher energy prices could lead to increased transportation costs, food prices, and utilities, contributing to inflation.

The Fed aims to reduce inflation toward a 2% annual target while supporting a labor market showing signs of fatigue.

HOW:

The Federal Reserve uses interest rate adjustments as a tool to manage inflation and economic activity.

CME FedWatch forecasts probabilities based on 30-Day Fed funds futures prices.

(UPDATED March 16, 2026 11:16 UTC)

Today, President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as the chair of the Federal Reserve, with Powell set to step down in May. The Fed is expected to hold interest rates steady at its upcoming meeting on March 18, with a current benchmark rate between 3.5% and 3.75%, and a 99% probability of maintaining that rate. Meanwhile, the job market showed signs of weakness with a loss of 92,000 jobs in February, and rising energy prices due to the Iran war are complicating the Fed's efforts to manage inflation while supporting a fatigued labor market.