Trending Now - Oil Prices Rise, Complicating Federal Reserve's Rate Decisions
WHO:
Nathan Sheets, chief global economist at Citi
Tim Duy, chief economist at SGH Macro
Chris Waller, governor of the Federal Reserve
Stephen Miran, governor of the Federal Reserve
Michelle Bowman, governor of the Federal Reserve
Beth Hammack, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Austan Goolsbee, president of the Chicago Fed
Kevin Warsh, nominated to replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair
Eric Rosengren, Former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Esther George, Former Kansas City Fed President
Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chair
President Trump
Eric Rosengren, Former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Esther George, Former Kansas City Fed President
Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chair
President Trump
WHAT:
The average 30-year mortgage rate increased to 6.1% on March 10th, 2026, up from 6% the previous week.
Economists now predict the first rate cut by the Federal Reserve may not occur until September 2026 or later.
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates unchanged during meetings in late April and June 2026.
The Federal Reserve's inflation forecast may be adjusted to at least 2.8% by the end of 2026.
Oil prices are currently above $100 per barrel.
Esther George stated, “I would love to see them quit focusing on when they can resume rate cuts because the path of inflation and other things to me were already uncertain.”
President Trump indicated that the Iran war will be over “very soon,” but acknowledged that the US military campaign still has further to go.
The Federal Reserve is considering holding interest rates steady due to the impact of the Iran war and oil prices.
The Fed has cut rates three times in the fall of 2025 to stabilize the labor market.
Inflation has remained above the Fed’s 2% goal for over five years.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures index showed prices at 3.1% at the beginning of 2026, while the Consumer Price Index indicated a 2.5% increase as of February 2026.
WHERE:
Washington, D.C. (location of the Federal Reserve)
WHEN:
Jerome Powell's term as chair of the Federal Reserve ends on May 15th, 2026.
The Federal Open Markets Committee meeting took place on January 28, 2026.
The two-day policy meeting of Federal Reserve officials is occurring during the week of March 17, 2026.
WHY:
The Iran war and the resulting oil price shock are complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding interest rates, leading to divisions among officials.
The ongoing Iran war and high oil prices are causing divisions among Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate decisions.
The ongoing Iran war and the resulting oil price shock are influencing the Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding interest rates.
President Trump has indicated that stopping Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon is more important than domestic oil concerns.
HOW:
A judge recently dismissed subpoenas issued by the Justice Department to the Federal Reserve, which may impact ongoing investigations.
Fed officials are assessing the economic impact of consumer spending, which accounts for 70% of economic growth, and the pressure on consumers from rising prices over the past five years.
Fed officials are assessing the economic impact of tax refunds, low gas prices, a stabilizing job market, and the effects of tariffs on inflation.
(UPDATED March 17, 2026 19:25 UTC)
In a significant update from the Federal Reserve, the average 30-year mortgage rate has risen to 6.1% as of March 10, up from 6% the week prior, and economists now believe the first rate cut may not happen until September 2026 or later. With the ongoing Iran war and its impact on oil prices complicating decision-making, the Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates unchanged during meetings in late April and June, while also potentially adjusting its inflation forecast to at least 2.8% by the end of 2026. In related news, a judge has dismissed subpoenas from the Justice Department to the Federal Reserve, which could affect ongoing investigations.
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(UPDATED March 17, 2026 13:28 UTC)
Today, oil prices have surged above $100 per barrel, prompting discussions among Federal Reserve officials about interest rate decisions amid the ongoing Iran war. Esther George expressed her desire for the Fed to shift focus away from rate cuts, citing uncertainties around inflation, while President Trump stated that the war in Iran will conclude "very soon," though he acknowledged that the U.S. military campaign still has more to accomplish. As these developments unfold, Fed officials are closely evaluating the economic impact of consumer spending, which drives 70% of growth, and the pressures consumers face from rising prices over the past five years.
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(UPDATED March 17, 2026 05:27 UTC)
In Washington, D.C., the Federal Reserve is currently deliberating on whether to hold interest rates steady, influenced by the ongoing Iran war and fluctuating oil prices. President Trump has emphasized that preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon takes precedence over domestic oil issues, while the Fed has already cut rates three times in the fall of 2025 to stabilize the labor market amidst persistent inflation above their 2% target. As Fed officials assess various economic factors, including tax refunds and low gas prices, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index shows prices at 3.1% at the start of 2026, with the Consumer Price Index reflecting a 2.5% increase as of February.