Trending Now - 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Influenced by El Niño
WHO:
CNN - Colorado State University (CSU) researchers are involved in the hurricane season forecast.
CNN - Phil Klotzbach is a senior research scientist and lead author of CSU’s forecast.
WHAT:
CBS News Science - Colorado State University predicts 13 named storms and six hurricanes for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.
CNN - The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts a 90% chance that an El Niño will develop by fall 2026, with a 50% chance it will be a strong event.
Los Angeles Times - The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicates that sea surface temperatures could exceed the seasonal average by 2 degrees Celsius, raising the odds of a "super" El Niño.
CNN - Only one Atlantic hurricane season since 2016 ended with a below-average number of storms: 2025.
CNN - Last year, 2025, saw 13 named storms, including five hurricanes, with Category 5 Melissa being the most notable, which devastated Jamaica.
CBS News Science - The CSU forecast indicates that the initial prediction of 17 storms for 2025 overshot the mark.
CNN - CSU predicts a slightly below-average Atlantic hurricane season for 2026, with 13 named storms expected.
CNN - Of the 13 named storms, six are expected to become hurricanes, and two are predicted to strengthen into Category 3 or stronger major hurricanes.
CBS News Science - CSU's forecast includes 13 named storms and six hurricanes for the 2026 season.
WHERE:
CNN - The forecast pertains to the Atlantic Ocean region.
WHEN:
CNN - The Atlantic hurricane season spans from June through November.
CNN - The El Niño is expected to officially commence mid-summer 2026.
CNN - The peak of the hurricane season is expected to be from mid-August to mid-October 2026.
CNN - The La Niña conditions ended in April 2026.
WHY:
NY Post - Forecasters now say there is a 61% chance that the El Niño climate pattern will develop between May and July 2026, with a 25% probability that it could grow into a "very strong" event.
CBS News Science - The latest NOAA outlook indicates a more than 90% chance that an El Niño will develop by fall 2026, with a 50% chance it will be at least a strong event.
NY Post - Forecasters now say there is a 61% chance that the El Niño climate pattern will develop between May and July 2026.
CNN - The impending return of El Niño has given forecasters slightly more confidence than normal that there will be less tropical activity overall.
CNN - The forecast indicates that the burgeoning El Niño is the “dominant factor” influencing the upcoming hurricane season.
CNN - El Niño conditions typically lead to increased wind shear, which can weaken storms or prevent their formation.
HOW:
CNN - The El Niño is expected to build later in spring 2026 and officially commence mid-summer, influencing the peak of the hurricane season from mid-August to mid-October 2026.
CNN - CSU has been fine-tuning forecast models for years, which have proven to be better at predictions than seasonal averages alone.
CNN - CSU uses forecast models that have been fine-tuned over the years for better predictions than seasonal averages alone.
CNN - Forecasters monitor El Niño and La Niña because they affect weather patterns in a consistent and predictable manner.
(UPDATED April 10, 2026 05:40 UTC)
Forecasters are now predicting a 61% chance that the El Niño climate pattern will develop between May and July 20th26, with a 25% probability it could escalate into a "very strong" event. According to the latest NOAA outlook, there is over a 90% chance that an El Niño will form by fall 2026, and a 50% chance it will be at least a strong event. This El Niño is expected to build later in spring and officially begin by mid-summer, potentially impacting the peak of the hurricane season from mid-August to mid-October.
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(UPDATED April 10, 2026 03:59 UTC)
Colorado State University is predicting 13 named storms and six hurricanes for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has announced a 90% chance that an El Niño will develop by fall 2026, with a 50% chance it will be a strong event, while forecasters estimate a 61% chance that this climate pattern will emerge between May and July. Additionally, the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts suggests that sea surface temperatures could exceed the seasonal average by 2 degrees Celsius, increasing the likelihood of a "super" El Niño.
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(UPDATED April 9, 2026 19:21 UTC)
The Atlantic hurricane season of 2025 was notable for being the only one since 2016 to end with a below-average number of storms, recording just 13 named storms, including five hurricanes, with the most significant being Category 5 Melissa, which devastated Jamaica. Forecasters have gained some confidence in predicting less tropical activity overall due to the impending return of El Niño, although the Colorado State University forecast initially predicted 17 storms for 2025, which turned out to be an overshoot. CSU has been refining its forecast models over the years, leading to more accurate predictions compared to relying solely on seasonal averages.
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(UPDATED April 9, 2026 17:24 UTC)
Researchers at Colorado State University, led by senior scientist Phil Klotzbach, are predicting a slightly below-average Atlantic hurricane season for 2026, with 13 named storms expected. Of those storms, six are anticipated to develop into hurricanes, and two could strengthen into major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher. The forecast highlights that the upcoming El Niño will be the dominant factor influencing the season, which runs from June through November, with peak activity expected between mid-August and mid-October.