Trending Now - Insider Trading Surges Amid Military Conflicts, Report Finds
WHO:
Mediaite - Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke was indicted on federal charges.
CBS News - Nicolas Vaiman is the co-founder and CEO of the data analytics firm Bubblemaps.
CBS News - Michelle Kendler-Kretsch is a reporter at the anti-corruption data collective.
CBS News - Rob Schwartz is a partner at the law firm Morgan Lewis.
CBS News - "Deebs" is the head of investigations at Bubblemaps, a former U.S. military officer.
CBS News - David Kovel is a former commodities trader and a New York lawyer.
WHAT:
Mediaite - Military bets on long-shot wagers with less than 35% odds have a 52% success rate, compared to a 7% success rate for sports bets, according to Michelle Kendler-Kretsch.
CBS News - The nine connected Polymarket accounts made winning bets on pivotal moments in the war with Iran, including the removal of Iran's supreme leader and the announcement of a ceasefire.
CBS News - The accounts made over 80 bets with a 98% win rate, even when the odds were low.
Mediaite - Gannon Ken Van Dyke allegedly made $400,000 on Polymarket using insider information about the capture of Nicolás Maduro.
Mediaite - Nine connected Polymarket accounts made collectively $2.4 million betting on U.S. military operations with a 98% win rate.
CBS News - More than $1 billion has been staked online this year on military decisions and outcomes.
CBS News - The accounts made winning bets on pivotal moments in the war with Iran, including the first U.S. strikes and the announcement of a ceasefire.
CBS News - Van Dyke allegedly made a series of wagers totaling roughly $34,000, netting over $400,000.
WHERE:
Mediaite - The betting took place on Polymarket, a prediction market platform.
CBS News - The analysis was conducted by Bubblemaps, based in Paris, France.
WHEN:
CBS News - The Justice Department alleges Van Dyke made wagers the day before the raid to capture Nicolás Maduro.
CBS News - On March 23, more than $800 million was staked on oil prices dropping shortly before President Trump posted on Truth Social.
WHY:
CBS News - The U.S. prohibits making military bets on platforms like Polymarket, but users find digital workarounds.
CBS News - The ability to bet on war has created a new category of insider trading.
HOW:
CBS News - The head of investigations at Bubblemaps, known as "Deebs," stated that many individuals involved in military operations could potentially learn classified information, increasing the number of potential insiders.
Mediaite - Gannon Ken Van Dyke allegedly used classified information to place bets.
CBS News - The linked accounts made bets even when the odds of winning were low, indicating potential insider trading.
CBS News - Polymarket stated they act on suspicious activity, including referrals to law enforcement.
(UPDATED May 18, 2026 17:43 UTC)
Military bets on long-shot wagers with less than 35% odds have surprisingly achieved a 52% success rate, while sports bets lag far behind with only a 7% success rate, according to Michelle Kendler-Kretsch. Notably, nine connected Polymarket accounts have made over 80 bets on significant events in the war with Iran, boasting an impressive 98% win rate even when the odds were low. Deebs, the head of investigations at Bubblemaps, highlighted that many individuals involved in military operations could potentially access classified information, raising concerns about the number of potential insiders.
--
(UPDATED May 18, 2026 14:21 UTC)
Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke has been indicted on federal charges for allegedly using insider information to make over $400,000 in bets on Polymarket regarding the capture of Nicolás Maduro. This incident is part of a larger trend where more than $1 billion has been staked online this year on military decisions, with nine connected accounts reportedly achieving a remarkable 98% win rate on their bets. The U.S. prohibits military betting on platforms like Polymarket, yet users have found ways to navigate these restrictions, raising concerns about a new form of insider trading.