Trending Now - Italian Volcano Approaches Critical Stage, Eruption Possible

WHO:

Live Science - Davide Zaccagnino, postdoctoral researcher at the Southern University of Science and Technology in Guangdong, China.

Live Science - Christopher Kilburn, volcanologist at University College London.

WHAT:

Live Science - Campi Flegrei is speeding toward a transition that could involve a major eruption or another geological change.

Live Science - The caldera is home to about 500,000 people who would be at risk in the event of an eruption.

Live Science - The caldera stretches about 9 miles (15 kilometers) in diameter and formed in a massive eruption 40,000 years ago.

Live Science - The floor of the caldera has risen about 4.6 feet (1.4 m) since 2005.

Live Science - The researchers found that the increasing rate of acceleration can self-sustain until around 2030 to 2034.

WHERE:

Live Science - Campi Flegrei, a volcanic caldera located west of Naples, Italy.

WHEN:

Live Science - The transition of Campi Flegrei is expected to occur within the next decade.

Live Science - The researchers suggest that significant changes could occur around 2030 to 2034.

WHY:

Live Science - The increased activity of Campi Flegrei is attributed to the movement of deep magmatic fluids, which are fracturing and uplifting the brittle crust of the caldera.

Live Science - The study indicates that the crust may have reached a point where it can no longer support the accumulating stress.

HOW:

Live Science - Researchers used a physics-based model to analyze Campi Flegrei's accelerating activity, categorizing it into exponential acceleration or finite-time singularity.

Live Science - Zaccagnino and his team are developing a system to update activity predictions every few months based on the latest earthquakes and uplift data from Campi Flegrei.

(UPDATED May 21, 2026 04:21 UTC)

Researchers Davide Zaccagnino and Christopher Kilburn have found that Campi Flegrei, a volcanic caldera near Naples, Italy, is rapidly approaching a transition that could lead to a significant eruption or other geological changes, putting around 500,000 residents at risk. The caldera, which formed from a massive eruption 40,000 years ago and has seen its floor rise about 4.6 feet since 2005, is experiencing increased activity due to the movement of deep magmatic fluids that are fracturing the crust. Their study suggests that this accelerating activity could continue until around 2030 to 2034, and they are developing a system to provide updated predictions based on the latest seismic data.