AI Predicts World Cup Champion After 100,000 Simulations

WHO:

Fast Company - Achim Zeileis is a professor of statistics at the University of Innsbruck.

Fox News - Sportradar is a sports technology company that provides real-time sports data and stats.

WHAT:

Fast Company - A machine learning algorithm was trained to predict the most likely course of the World Cup.

Fast Company - The algorithm produced a probabilistic forecast for each possible match in the tournament.

Fast Company - Spain is the favorite for the title with a winning probability of 14.5%.

Fast Company - England and France are closely following Spain, each with a winning probability of 12.4%.

Fast Company - Germany has a winning probability of 11.2%.

Fast Company - Portugal and Argentina have winning probabilities of 8.9% and 8.2%, respectively.

Fast Company - The United States has a 78% chance of reaching the Round of 32.

Fast Company - The probability of the U.S. winning the final at MetLife Stadium is 1%.

Fox News - France vs. Spain was the most common matchup in the final, occurring nearly 7,000 times (7%).

Fox News - Spain and France each won the tournament 16% of the time in simulations.

Fox News - Brazil vs. Spain was the second-most common final matchup, occurring nearly 5,000 times (5%).

Fox News - Spain, France, England, Brazil, and Argentina won the title a combined 63,000 times out of 100,000 simulations.

Fox News - Kylian Mbappé scored the most goals in over 13,000 simulations (13%).

Fox News - Harry Kane won the Golden Boot in 12,000 simulations (12%).

WHERE:

Fast Company - The final is set to take place at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey.

WHEN:

Fast Company - The final is scheduled for July 19.

HOW:

Fast Company - The algorithm combines statistical models and expert insight from bookmakers and transfer markets to determine team strengths.

Fast Company - The simulation was run 100,000 times to determine the tournament’s most likely course.

Fox News - The AI simulation engine ran the entire 48-team tournament across 100,000 universes.

(UPDATED June 11, 2026 14:23 UTC)

A machine learning algorithm developed by Achim Zeileis, a professor of statistics at the University of Innsbruck, has been trained to predict the outcomes of the World Cup, producing a probabilistic forecast for each match in the tournament. According to the simulations, Spain is the favorite to win with a 14.5% chance, closely followed by England and France at 12.4% each, while the final is set to take place at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey on July 19. The algorithm, which ran the entire 48-team tournament 100,000 times, indicates that Kylian Mbappé is projected to score the most goals, while Harry Kane is expected to win the Golden Boot in 12,000 of those simulations.