Rising Costs of Essentials Expected to Persist Post-iran Conflict
WHO:
AP News - Brett House, an economist at Columbia Business School, stated that the world is worse off due to the Iran conflict.
AP News - Mark Barteau, a professor at Texas A&M University, discussed the impact of refining capacity on gas prices.
AP News - David Ortega, a professor of food economics and policy at Michigan State University, commented on grocery prices.
AP News - Andy Polk, senior vice president of the Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America, shared insights on footwear prices.
Yahoo Finance - Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, provided analysis on gas prices.
Yahoo Finance - David Doherty, head of natural resources research at BloombergNEF, discussed the dynamics of gas price changes.
WHAT:
Morgan Stanley - The bank now sees Brent crude averaging $80 per barrel in the last quarter of 2026, down from an earlier forecast of $100 per barrel for the same period.
Goldman Sachs - The bank cut its price forecast for the fourth quarter to $80 per barrel from $90 per barrel.
Citi - The bank cut its oil price forecast to $75 per barrel of Brent in the third quarter of this year, falling further to an average of $70 per barrel in the final quarter.
AP News - In May, footwear prices were reported to be 5.2% higher than the same month a year earlier, according to government figures.
AP News - The World Food Program of the United Nations expects the fertilizer shortage to have a “devastating impact” on crop yields for months to come.
ShipStation Global - Consumers might notice higher shipping costs and more out-of-stock items online until the end of the year.
AP News - Oil prices fell to about $80 per barrel following a tentative agreement to end the Iran war.
AP News - Gas prices are expected to fall slowly due to the time it takes for crude oil price changes to affect retail prices.
AP News - Grocery prices in the U.S. are expected to rise by 3.2% this year, compared to a historical average of 2.6%.
Yahoo Finance - The national average price of gasoline dropped below $4 per gallon for the first time since mid-April.
Yahoo Finance - Oil futures for Brent crude fell to below $83 per barrel, the lowest price since late February.
WHERE:
AP News - The Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for oil transport, was mentioned as being affected by the conflict.
Yahoo Finance - The national average price of gasoline was referenced in the context of the United States.
WHEN:
Yahoo Finance - The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is expected to occur within 30 days following the signing of a preliminary agreement.
Yahoo Finance - Senior U.S. officials indicated it could take over two weeks for shipping operations to return to normal.
WHY:
AP News - The conflict over the Strait of Hormuz disrupted supplies of crude and refined fuel, affecting various supply chains.
Yahoo Finance - The preliminary agreement between the U.S. and Iran aims to ease tensions and restore oil flow.
HOW:
AP News - Refineries typically pay for crude oil a month or more in advance, affecting the timing of price changes at the pump.
Yahoo Finance - The government is implementing emergency EPA waivers to allow nationwide sales of E15 gasoline to ease fuel supply disruptions.
(UPDATED June 16, 2026 16:24 UTC)
Morgan Stanley has revised its forecast for Brent crude oil prices, now predicting an average of $80 per barrel in the last quarter of 2026, down from an earlier estimate of $100. Similarly, Goldman Sachs has lowered its fourth-quarter price forecast to $80 per barrel from $90, while Citi anticipates Brent will drop to $75 per barrel in the third quarter and further decline to an average of $70 in the final quarter. Meanwhile, consumers may face higher shipping costs and more out-of-stock items online until the end of the year, alongside a reported 5.2% increase in footwear prices compared to the same month last year and concerns from the World Food Program about the long-term effects of fertilizer shortages on crop yields.
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(UPDATED June 16, 2026 14:41 UTC)
Oil prices have dropped to about $80 per barrel following a preliminary agreement aimed at ending the Iran conflict, which has significantly impacted global supply chains. As a result, the national average price of gasoline has fallen below $4 per gallon for the first time since mid-April, although experts predict that gas prices will decrease slowly due to the lag in how crude oil price changes affect retail prices. Meanwhile, grocery prices in the U.S. are expected to rise by 3.2% this year, surpassing the historical average of 2.6%, as analysts continue to monitor the ongoing effects of the conflict and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, anticipated within the next 30 days.