Impact of Iran War on Oil Prices and Consumer Goods Explained
WHO:
Fast Company - Brett House, economist at Columbia Business School
Fast Company - Mark Barteau, professor of chemical engineering and chemistry at Texas A&M University
Fast Company - David Ortega, professor of food economics and policy at Michigan State University
Fast Company - Andy Polk, senior vice president of the Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America trade group
Fast Company - Judah Levine, head of research at the freight booking platform Freightos
Fast Company - Josh Steinitz, chief strategy officer of the business logistics platform ShipStation Global
AP - Cathy Bussewitz, Anne D’Innocenzio, Wyatte Grantham-Philips, Dee-Ann Durbin, Rio Yamat, Associated Press writers
WHAT:
NPR - The price of the base oil used to blend widely-used synthetic motor oil has "more than tripled to record levels" since the start of the war, according to Amanda Hay, an analyst with Independent Commodity Intelligence Services.
NPR - Regular motor oil prices have increased by 60% since the war began, as reported by Nathan Matheson, owner of Nathan's Small Engine Repair and Automotive Services.
Fast Company - A tentative deal to end the Iran war has been reached.
Fast Company - Oil prices fell to about $80 per barrel for U.S. benchmark crude, down from over $120 per barrel during the conflict.
Fast Company - U.S. grocery prices are expected to rise by 3.2% this year, compared to a historical average of 2.6%.
Fast Company - Footwear prices in the U.S. were 5.2% higher in May compared to the same month the previous year.
Fast Company - The World Food Program of the United Nations expects a "devastating impact" on crop yields due to fertilizer shortages.
WHERE:
Fast Company - The Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil and fertilizer supply.
Fast Company - West Coast of the U.S., where gas prices will take longer to drop due to insufficient refining capacity.
Fast Company - Europe, where war-related food price inflation is expected to peak sometime next year.
WHEN:
Fast Company - Rabobank expects war-related food price inflation to peak sometime next year in Europe.
Fast Company - Shipping costs and out-of-stock items may persist until the end of the year.
WHY:
NPR - The U.S. has the largest trade deficit in the world for "group III base oil," which is primarily imported from the Middle East, according to Holly Alfano, CEO of the Independent Lubricant Manufacturers Association.
Fast Company - The Iran war disrupted supplies of crude and refined fuel, as well as supply chains for fertilizer, food, and footwear.
Fast Company - Fuel accounts for roughly 15% to 30% of the total cost of food, contributing to ongoing inflationary pressure.
HOW:
NPR - The world's largest facility producing group III base oil, the Shell Pearl GTL plant in Qatar, was damaged by an Iranian missile in March, with half of its output expected to be offline for at least a year.
Fast Company - Refineries pay for crude oil a month or more in advance, delaying the processing of cheaper products even after oil prices drop.
Fast Company - Airlines typically buy fuel in advance and adjust schedules gradually, meaning lower oil prices take time to affect ticket prices.
(UPDATED June 16, 2026 20:10 UTC)
The price of the base oil used to blend widely-used synthetic motor oil has skyrocketed, more than tripling to record levels since the start of the war, according to analyst Amanda Hay. Regular motor oil prices have also surged by 60%, as noted by Nathan Matheson, owner of Nathan's Small Engine Repair and Automotive Services. This situation is exacerbated by the fact that the U.S. has the largest trade deficit in "group III base oil," primarily imported from the Middle East, and the Shell Pearl GTL plant in Qatar, the world's largest facility for this oil, was damaged by an Iranian missile in March, leaving half of its output offline for at least a year.
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(UPDATED June 16, 2026 16:30 UTC)
A tentative deal to end the Iran war has been reached, leading to a significant drop in oil prices, which have fallen to about $80 per barrel for U.S. benchmark crude, down from over $120 during the conflict. However, U.S. grocery prices are still expected to rise by 3.2% this year, while footwear prices increased by 5.2% in May compared to the previous year, as the war disrupted supplies and contributed to ongoing inflationary pressures. The World Food Program warns of a "devastating impact" on crop yields due to fertilizer shortages, with food price inflation in Europe anticipated to peak sometime next year.