Antarctica's Ice Sheet Could Trigger Irreversible Sea Level Rise

WHO:

Space Daily - Authors of the study include David Chandler, Petra Langebroek, Ronja Reese, Torsten Albrecht, Julius Garbe, and Ricarda Winkelmann, affiliated with the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, the Norwegian research centre NORCE, and Northumbria University.

Phys.org - Dr. Felicity McCormack from Monash University leads research on Antarctic ice loss.

WHAT:

Space Daily - A modelling study published in Communications Earth & Environment indicates that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet could begin an irreversible collapse at ocean temperatures between zero and 0.25°C above current levels.

Space Daily - The study suggests that once the collapse begins, it would contribute roughly four metres to global sea levels over centuries to millennia.

Phys.org - Research predicts that the next three to five decades will provide a critical window to anticipate and plan for Antarctic ice loss and its contribution to sea level rise.

WHERE:

Space Daily - The study focuses on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, particularly the Amundsen Sea region, which includes Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers.

WHEN:

Space Daily - The modelling study was published in June 2025.

Phys.org - The research indicates a critical window for planning will occur over the next three to five decades.

WHY:

Space Daily - The study identifies a threshold of 0.25°C for ocean warming that may have already been reached, which could lead to a self-sustaining collapse of the ice sheet.

Phys.org - The research aims to understand the predictability of Antarctic ice loss to inform sea level rise projections.

HOW:

Space Daily - The authors ran model simulations extending back 800,000 years to analyze how the ice sheet has responded to past conditions.

Space Daily - The mechanism described in the study is marine ice sheet instability, where warm water undercuts ice shelves, leading to glacier retreat and instability.

(UPDATED June 20, 2026 19:22 UTC)

A new modelling study published in June 2025 reveals that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet could face an irreversible collapse if ocean temperatures rise just slightly above current levels. This research, led by Dr. Felicity McCormack from Monash University and involving experts from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, indicates that such a collapse could contribute approximately four metres to global sea levels over centuries to millennia. The study highlights a critical window over the next three to five decades for anticipating and planning for the impacts of Antarctic ice loss on sea level rise, driven by marine ice sheet instability as warm water undercuts ice shelves.