El Niño Expected to Dampen 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Activity

WHO:

FOX Weather - Colorado State University (CSU) is involved in forecasting the Atlantic hurricane season.

The Weather Channel - CSU's tropical meteorology project team is responsible for the latest forecast update.

WHAT:

FOX Weather - CSU revised its Atlantic hurricane season forecast to 9 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane (Category 3 or stronger).

The Weather Channel - The forecast indicates this could be the least active hurricane season in over a decade, with 5 fewer storms and 3 fewer hurricanes than an average season.

FOX Weather - The probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline has dropped to 17%, down from 24% in June.

The Weather Channel - Tropical Storm Arthur has already formed, causing significant flooding in Louisiana.

WHERE:

FOX Weather - The Atlantic Ocean is the region of focus for the hurricane season forecast.

The Weather Channel - Specific areas mentioned include the Caribbean Sea and the region from Africa to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula.

WHEN:

FOX Weather - CSU will issue a mid-season forecast in August.

The Weather Channel - The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is typically from mid-August through mid-October.

WHY:

FOX Weather - The forecast is influenced by a very strong El Niño, which is typically associated with fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic.

The Weather Channel - A strengthening El Niño is expected to produce higher wind shear and dry air, creating hostile conditions for hurricane development.

HOW:

FOX Weather - El Niño alters atmospheric circulation and influences global weather patterns, affecting hurricane activity.

The Weather Channel - Wind shear over the Caribbean Sea is reported to be the second highest on record for early July, impacting storm development.

(UPDATED July 9, 2026 01:31 UTC)

Colorado State University has revised its Atlantic hurricane season forecast, predicting nine named storms, four hurricanes, and one major hurricane, which could make this the least active season in over a decade. The forecast indicates a significant drop in the probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline, now at 17%, down from 24% last month, and Tropical Storm Arthur has already formed, causing flooding in Louisiana. CSU will provide a mid-season update in August, as the peak of the hurricane season typically occurs from mid-August through mid-October, influenced by a strong El Niño that creates conditions less favorable for hurricane development.