Rising U.s.-iran Tensions Signal Prolonged High Gas Prices

WHO:

NPR - Emily Blain, an accredited financial counselor in Minnesota.

NPR - Thomas Weinandy, principal research economist at Upside.

NPR - Kimberly Palmer, personal finance expert at NerdWallet.

CNBC - Speculators on Kalshi.

WHAT:

Fortune - President Trump promoted the "Freedom Fuel Network," which offers gasoline prices well below the average market price, with the first station in Philadelphia pricing gas at $3.47.

Fortune - The nationwide average gasoline price is currently $3.88, while the average in Pennsylvania is just under $4.00.

Fortune - Gas prices peaked at $4.63 a gallon in May, following the start of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, but have since declined, remaining nearly 34% higher than in January.

Fortune - The Freedom Fuel Network was incorporated in Delaware in late June, shortly before its public rollout, but details about its ownership and management remain unclear.

Fortune - A federal trademark application for "Freedom Fuel Network" was submitted on July 1, covering retail fuel and convenience store services.

AP News - Global oil demand is set to decline by about 1 million barrels per day in 2026, marking the first annual decrease since 2020.

AP News - Global oil demand averaged 97.9 million barrels per day in May, down 5.3 million barrels per day from a year earlier.

AP News - China's oil consumption decreased by 1.5 million barrels per day, representing a 9% decline, which was the largest globally.

CNBC - Oil prices edged lower, with global benchmark Brent crude futures for September delivery easing to $76.25 per barrel.

NPR - Trump stated that the tenuous ceasefire was over, contributing to rising gas prices.

CNBC - Speculators now place 39% odds that gas prices will be above $3.75 on Election Day, up from 22% before recent developments in the Middle East.

CNBC - The IEA reported that world oil demand is set to decline by 1 million b/d year-on-year in 2026, marking the first annual decrease since 2020.

Al Jazeera - The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has cut as much as 14 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil flows.

Al Jazeera - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that global oil supply rose by 4.1 million bpd in June following the agreed memorandum of understanding (MoU) and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, although supply remained 9.4 million bpd below pre-war levels.

CNBC - Oil prices edged lower, with global benchmark Brent crude futures for September delivery easing to $76.25 per barrel.

NPR - Gas prices are expected to remain volatile, with experts indicating that price swings will likely persist due to ongoing conflicts.

CNBC - Speculators on Kalshi now believe there is a 75% chance gas prices will be above $3.50 per gallon on Election Day, up from previous odds of 37%.

CNBC - The odds of gas prices exceeding $4.60 this year have increased to 43%, up from about one-in-three before renewed hostilities.

CNBC - The national average of gas prices was at $3.84, up 5 cents from the day prior.

CNBC - WTI crude eased to below $72 per barrel on Thursday.

CNBC - Speculators now believe there is a 75% chance gas prices will be above $3.50 per gallon on Election Day, up from previous odds of 37%.

CNBC - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that world oil demand is set to decline by 1 million b/d year-on-year in 2026, marking the first annual decrease since 2020.

NPR - The average cost of a gallon of regular unleaded gas was $3.85.

NPR - Gas prices peaked at $4.56 in May and fell as low as $2.79 in January.

NPR - U.S. oil prices rose to $75 per barrel, up from around $68 per barrel.

CNBC - Speculators believe there is a 75% chance gas prices will be above $3.50 per gallon on Election Day, November 3.

CNBC - The high for gas prices in 2026 was on May 21, when the average hit $4.56.

CNBC - There is a 39% chance gas prices will be above $3.75 on Election Day.

CNBC - There is a 43% chance gas prices will cross $4.60 this year.

WHERE:

NPR - The U.S. and Israel launched a war on Iran, affecting gas prices.

NPR - Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been disrupted.

WHEN:

CNBC - Election Day is on November 3.

WHY:

AP News - The drop in global oil demand is attributed to higher oil prices and disruptions to physical supply caused by the war between the U.S. and Iran.

Al Jazeera - The latest round of fighting was triggered by rival interpretations of provisions governing the Strait of Hormuz in the MoU.

CNBC - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that the decline in global oil demand is attributed to the war in Iran disrupting production and exports in the Middle East.

CNBC - The decline in global oil demand is attributed to the war in Iran disrupting production and exports in the Middle East.

NPR - Oil prices have spiked due to the war on Iran and disruptions in shipping.

CNBC - The odds of higher gas prices increased due to recent developments in the Middle East.

HOW:

AP News - The war has left ships loaded with crude oil stranded in the Persian Gulf for more than three months, unable to safely travel through the Strait of Hormuz.

Al Jazeera - Sources indicated that a lull in fighting has allowed for backroom diplomacy efforts to revive the ceasefire.

Al Jazeera - Sources in the Middle East confirmed that Pakistan and Qatar are working to bring the U.S. and Iran back to the negotiating table, with discussions reportedly taking place through various channels.

CNBC - The IEA's forecast for oil demand decline is based on the assumption of a ceasefire and gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which is currently uncertain due to ongoing hostilities.

CNBC - The IEA's forecast assumes a ceasefire and gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which is currently uncertain due to ongoing hostilities.

NPR - Gas prices fluctuate based on hostilities and peace talks in the region.

NPR - Consumers are advised to budget for higher gas prices and shop around for the best prices.

(UPDATED July 11, 2026 07:37 UTC)

President Trump has launched the "Freedom Fuel Network," which promises gasoline prices significantly lower than the national average, with the first station in Philadelphia offering gas at $3.47 per gallon. Currently, the nationwide average for gasoline stands at $3.88, while Pennsylvania's average is just under $4.00, following a peak of $4.63 in May due to the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran. The Freedom Fuel Network was incorporated in Delaware in late June, and a federal trademark application was submitted on July 1, although details about its ownership and management are still unclear.

(UPDATED July 11, 2026 01:23 UTC)

Global oil demand is projected to decline by about 1 million barrels per day in 2026, marking the first annual decrease since 2020, with May's average demand at 97.9 million barrels per day, down 5.3 million from the previous year. China's oil consumption saw a significant drop, decreasing by 1.5 million barrels per day, which is a 9% decline and the largest reduction globally. This decline in demand is largely attributed to higher oil prices and supply disruptions caused by the ongoing war between the U.S. and Iran, which has left ships loaded with crude oil stranded in the Persian Gulf for over three months.

(UPDATED July 10, 2026 22:22 UTC)

Trump announced that the fragile ceasefire has ended, which is contributing to rising gas prices. Speculators are now estimating a 39% chance that gas prices will exceed $3.75 on Election Day, a significant increase from the previous 22%. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency has reported that global oil demand is projected to decline by one million barrels per day year-on-year in 2026, marking the first annual decrease since 2020.

(UPDATED July 10, 2026 19:23 UTC)

The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has significantly impacted global oil flows, cutting as much as 14 million barrels per day. Despite a recent increase in global oil supply of 4.1 million barrels per day in June, it still remains 9.4 million barrels per day below pre-war levels, while oil prices have dipped slightly, with Brent crude futures for September delivery settling at $76.25 per barrel. Meanwhile, sources in the Middle East indicate that Pakistan and Qatar are actively working to facilitate negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, with discussions occurring through various channels.

(UPDATED July 10, 2026 18:23 UTC)

Gas prices are expected to remain volatile, with experts warning that price swings will likely continue due to ongoing conflicts, particularly in the Middle East. Speculators now believe there is a 75% chance that gas prices will exceed $3.50 per gallon on Election Day, a significant increase from previous odds of 37%, while the likelihood of prices surpassing $4.60 this year has risen to 43%. This forecast from the International Energy Agency highlights a decline in global oil demand, largely attributed to the war in Iran disrupting production and exports, and it hinges on the uncertain prospect of a ceasefire and the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

(UPDATED July 10, 2026 16:44 UTC)

Gas prices have risen to an average of $3.84 per gallon, a five-cent increase from the previous day, while WTI crude has dipped below $72 per barrel. Speculators now estimate a 75% chance that gas prices will exceed $3.50 per gallon on Election Day, a significant rise from earlier predictions of 37%. The International Energy Agency reports that global oil demand is expected to decline by one million barrels per day in 2026, primarily due to disruptions in production and exports caused by the ongoing war in Iran.

(UPDATED July 10, 2026 12:48 UTC)

Gas prices are currently averaging $3.85 per gallon, following a peak of $4.56 in May, as speculators predict a 75% chance that prices will exceed $3.50 on Election Day, November 3. This increase is largely attributed to the ongoing war on Iran and disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which have caused oil prices to rise to $75 per barrel. Experts advise consumers to budget for potentially higher gas prices and to shop around for the best deals as the situation in the Middle East continues to evolve.