FIFA World Cup Drives 3 Million New Users to Prediction Markets

WHO:

Yahoo Finance - Kalshi, a prediction market platform, added three million new users.

Yahoo Finance - Tarek Mansour, CEO of Kalshi.

Yahoo Finance - Vijay Viswanathan, associate dean of integrated marketing communications at Northwestern University.

Yahoo Finance - Brian Sung, a partner at law firm Haynes Boone.

Yahoo Finance - Rapper Drake, who placed a five million dollar wager.

WHAT:

South China Morning Post - China's sports lottery market experienced a total of 83.3 billion yuan (approximately $12.1 billion) in gambling sales during the World Cup.

South China Morning Post - CCTV reported that its tournament broadcasts reached a cumulative cross-media audience of more than 70 billion individual views by the eve of the World Cup final.

South China Morning Post - Live cross-media broadcasts during the final between Argentina and Spain reached a cumulative audience of 282 million, peaking with a real-time viewership of 41.23 million.

EIN Presswire - The Goal26 model achieved a lower cumulative Brier Score of 0.052 compared to 0.056 for aggregated human predictions, indicating more consistent probability calibration throughout the tournament.

Yahoo Finance - Kalshi spent an estimated $32 million on national linear TV advertising this year, with 36 ads shown during live World Cup matches accounting for about 40% of its national TV spending.

Sportico - Kalshi accounted for roughly 83% of notional trading volume out of CFTC-approved prediction market exchanges in July, maintaining the same share as in June.

Sportico - Kalshi recorded an 88% share of U.S. notional volume in May, and has yet to experience a month below 80% U.S. notional volume share since its inception.

Sportico - Polymarket's U.S. exchange rose to about 10% of U.S. prediction market notional volume share in June and July, up from roughly 8.5% in May.

Yahoo Finance - Kalshi's trading volumes surged during the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with the platform reporting a record trading volume of over $1.2 billion on its contract predicting the World Cup winner.

Bloomberg Markets - Prediction-market trading swelled to 27% of sports bets during the World Cup.

EIN Presswire - The Goal26 model achieved a lower cumulative Brier Score of 0.052 compared to 0.056 for aggregated human predictions, indicating more consistent probability calibration.

StateScoop - A report published by the Center for Internet Security counts more than one billion cyberattacks that were blocked over the course of the games.

EIN Presswire - Goal26 published new research evaluating its machine learning model against over 50,000 publicly submitted FIFA World Cup 2026 tournament brackets.

EIN Presswire - The Goal26 model achieved a lower cumulative Brier Score of 0.052 compared to 0.056 for aggregated human predictions, indicating more consistent probability calibration.

Variety - Television audiences across Europe for the World Cup final opposing Spain and Argentina saw a significant increase, demonstrating the impact of home-team interest on viewership.

Techmeme - Kalshi and Polymarket bets on the FIFA World Cup final topped $5.69 billion.

Techmeme - Total wagers on Kalshi and Polymarket platforms surpassed $50 billion for the first time in June.

EIN Presswire - Goal26's machine learning model outperformed aggregated public predictions in selected FIFA World Cup forecasting measures, achieving a lower cumulative Brier Score of 0.052 compared to 0.056 for human predictions.

Yahoo Finance - Kalshi's contract predicting the World Cup winner achieved a record trading volume of over $1.2 billion.

Yahoo Finance - Kalshi's trading volumes surged during the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

Yahoo Finance - More than $1.2 billion has traded on Kalshi's contract predicting the World Cup winner.

Yahoo Finance - The World Cup winner market closed when Spain beat Argentina in the final, 1-0.

Bloomberg Markets - Prediction-market trading swelled to 27% of sports bets during the World Cup.

Yahoo Finance - One Polymarket trader lost $11.6 million on World Cup wagers.

WHERE:

Yahoo Finance - Kalshi operates as a prediction market platform, with partnerships including ADI Predictstreet, FIFA's official prediction market sponsor.

WHEN:

Yahoo Finance - The World Cup final occurred on a Sunday, when Spain defeated Argentina.

WHY:

EIN Presswire - The study aimed to assess the relative performance of statistical machine learning and collective human judgment in tournament forecasting rather than to position one approach as a replacement for the other.

Yahoo Finance - Tarek Mansour stated, "Our volumes are where the news is at," emphasizing the importance of timely information in driving trading volume.

Yahoo Finance - Kalshi's marketing strategy leveraged soccer's global reach to attract new users, with partnerships including campaigns featuring soccer stars Luka Modric and Jose Mourinho, plus a partnership with the Argentina national team.

EIN Presswire - The study conducted by Goal26 aimed to evaluate the predictive performance of its machine learning model against human consensus in tournament forecasting.

Yahoo Finance - Kalshi's marketing strategy leveraged soccer's global reach to attract new users.

Yahoo Finance - The surge in prediction markets poses a competitive threat to traditional sportsbooks.

HOW:

PR Newswire - Migu's AI-powered features attracted more than 35 million participants over the course of the tournament, with over 7 million users submitting predictions for a single match.

Sportico - Kalshi and Polymarket's advertising efforts during the World Cup included physical activations like Times Square billboards and partnerships with media companies to share betting referral links.

StateScoop - The Center for Internet Security provided an information-sharing platform that was used by 4,000 people monitoring the games.

EIN Presswire - The Goal26 model was trained on international football match data spanning from 1998 through the 2026 FIFA World Cup, incorporating historical match results, January 2026 FIFA rankings, and a rolling five-match Points Per Game (PPG) metric.

EIN Presswire - The Goal26 model employs a Random Forest classifier trained on international football match data spanning from 1998 through the 2026 FIFA World Cup, incorporating historical match results, January 2026 FIFA rankings, and a rolling five-match Points Per Game (PPG) metric.

EIN Presswire - The Goal26 model employs a Random Forest classifier trained on international football match data spanning from 1998 through the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

Yahoo Finance - Kalshi partnered with ADI Predictstreet for stadium co-branding deals and worked with OpenAI to surface its odds inside ChatGPT searches.

Yahoo Finance - Kalshi's strategy prioritizes speed and relevance over volume alone, according to Tarek Mansour.

China's sports lottery market saw an impressive 83.3 billion yuan, or about $12.1 billion, in gambling sales during the World Cup. Meanwhile, CCTV's broadcasts amassed a staggering cumulative audience of over 70 billion views by the time the final approached, with live coverage of the match between Argentina and Spain reaching 282 million viewers and peaking at 41.23 million in real-time. Additionally, Migu's AI-powered features drew in more than 35 million participants throughout the tournament, with over 7 million users making predictions for a single match.