US Expected to Reach Record Low Homicide Rates by 2026
WHO:
ABC News - Council on Criminal Justice, Adam Gelb (president and CEO)
AP News - John Roman (director of the Center on Public Safety and Justice at the National Opinion Research Center from the University of Chicago)
WHAT:
AP News - The report showed a small jump in domestic violence incidents and sexual assaults over the same period between 2025 and 2026.
AP News - The number of cities that saw a longer-term increase in homicides was limited to Norfolk, Austin, Pittsburgh, and Minneapolis, which experienced more homicides in 2026 than in the same period in 2019.
AP News - Should the trend continue, the annual homicide rate is projected to reach the lowest levels in over a century once final numbers are released at the end of the year.
AP News - Roughly a third of the 30 sampled cities recorded an increase in homicides from the first half of 2025 to the same period in 2026, including Norfolk, Virginia, which saw a 64% increase, and San Francisco, which saw a 55% increase.
ABC News - An 18% decrease in the homicide rate across 30 American cities was reported.
AP News - The decrease translates to about 215 fewer homicides in 2026 compared to 2025.
AP News - The report tracked 13 crimes and recorded drops in nine categories, including carjackings, residential burglary, and aggravated assaults.
AP News - There was a 23% drop in the lethality of crimes committed.
AP News - A 13% drop in residential burglaries year over year was noted.
AP News - There was a 50% drop in burglaries compared to pre-pandemic levels in 2019.
AP News - Reported shoplifting increased by 5%.
AP News - A small increase in drug offenses was reported, although still lower than pre-pandemic levels.
WHERE:
ABC News - Data collected from 30 American cities.
AP News - Cities mentioned include Norfolk, Virginia, and San Francisco.
WHEN:
ABC News - The report was released on a Thursday.
AP News - The report compares data from 2025 to the same period in 2026.
WHY:
AP News - John Roman stated that explanations for crime trends transcend specific administrations, including factors like decreased drug usage and an influx of federal funding for localities after the pandemic.
AP News - John Roman stated that conservative politicians affiliated with Trump might attribute crime trends to intensified immigration crackdowns and the deployment of the National Guard, while liberal politicians might credit Biden’s public safety legislation.
AP News - Experts suggest that the positive changes exceed expectations and improve on baseline crime rates from before 2020 and the COVID-19 pandemic.
AP News - Factors contributing to improvements are not specific to a single local public safety measure.
HOW:
AP News - Roman noted that federal funding for localities after the pandemic was often spent on social programming, which funded jobs like teachers and social workers working with high-risk youth.
AP News - The Council on Criminal Justice collects data from police departments and other law enforcement sources.
(UPDATED July 23, 2026 15:38 UTC)
A recent report indicates a small increase in domestic violence incidents and sexual assaults between 2025 and 2026. Additionally, only a few cities, including Norfolk, Austin, Pittsburgh, and Minneapolis, experienced a rise in homicides during the same period compared to 2019. John Roman noted that the reasons behind these crime trends go beyond individual administrations, pointing to factors such as reduced drug usage and increased federal funding for localities following the pandemic.
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(UPDATED July 23, 2026 14:45 UTC)
The annual homicide rate is projected to reach its lowest levels in over a century, pending final numbers to be released at the end of the year. However, about a third of the 30 sampled cities reported an increase in homicides during the first half of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025, with Norfolk, Virginia, experiencing a staggering 64% rise and San Francisco seeing a 55% increase. John Roman highlighted that while conservative politicians linked these crime trends to stricter immigration policies and National Guard deployments, liberal politicians credited Biden’s public safety legislation, noting that federal funding post-pandemic was often directed towards social programs that employed teachers and social workers to assist high-risk youth.
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(UPDATED July 23, 2026 13:27 UTC)
A recent report from the Council on Criminal Justice reveals an 18% decrease in the homicide rate across 30 American cities, translating to about 215 fewer homicides in 2026 compared to the previous year. The report also highlights significant drops in various crime categories, including a 23% decrease in the lethality of crimes and a 50% reduction in burglaries compared to pre-pandemic levels in 2019, although reported shoplifting has increased by 5%. Experts indicate that these positive changes exceed expectations and reflect improvements over baseline crime rates from before 2020, with data collected from sources like police departments and law enforcement agencies.