Prediction Markets Surge: Will the UK Follow the US Trend?

WHO:

Netflix - The documentary features interviews with Shayne Coplan (CEO of Polymarket), Tarek Mansour (CEO of Kalshi), Michael Selig (Chairman, CFTC), James Surowiecki (author of The Wisdom of Crowds), and others.

The Guardian - Dode Dahroug, a 51-year-old former RAF pilot, and his 16-year-old son are mentioned in the context of using prediction markets.

WHAT:

Netflix - More than $5.6 billion was wagered on the 2026 World Cup final through Polymarket and Kalshi.

The Guardian - Registered prediction markets are estimated to have attracted trading volumes of at least $45 billion during the World Cup.

The Guardian - Analysts at Eilers & Krejcik Gaming estimate actual World Cup stakes to be closer to $5.6 billion in the US.

The Guardian - The Gambling Commission states that approximately £2 billion is being wagered via sportsbooks in the UK.

WHERE:

Netflix - The documentary is available for streaming on Netflix.

The Guardian - The events discussed include locations such as Reading, UK, and the Atlanta stadium in Georgia, USA.

WHEN:

Netflix - Instadocs: The Prediction Games premiered on July 26.

The Guardian - The US Supreme Court lifted a federal ban on sports betting in 2018.

WHY:

The Guardian - Prediction markets have gained popularity in the US due to uneven regulation of sports betting across states.

The Guardian - Polymarket and Kalshi argue that they are financial trading products to circumvent sports betting prohibitions.

HOW:

Netflix - Prediction markets turn opinions into prices, which helps keep people honest.

The Guardian - The Guardian was able to set up an account with Polymarket using a VPN and deposit cryptocurrency to test betting.

(UPDATED July 27, 2026 01:30 UTC)

A new documentary titled "Instadocs: The Prediction Games" premiered on Netflix, featuring interviews with industry leaders like Shayne Coplan, Tarek Mansour, and Michael Selig, while also highlighting the experiences of Dode Dahroug and his son with prediction markets. During the 2026 World Cup final, over $5.6 billion was wagered through platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, contributing to an estimated trading volume of at least $45 billion in registered prediction markets. The documentary is now available for streaming, shedding light on the growing popularity of prediction markets in the U.S., driven by the uneven regulation of sports betting across states.