Talarico Gains 5-Point Edge Over Paxton in Texas Senate Poll

WHO:

USA Today - Democratic candidate James Talarico and Republican candidate Ken Paxton are running in the Texas Senate race.

USA Today - The Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) is the organization that conducted the poll.

USA Today - Democratic strategist Luke Warford directs TPOR.

WHAT:

USA Today - Talarico leads Paxton by 5 points in the Texas Senate race, with Talarico at 45% and Paxton at 40%.

USA Today - The poll indicates that 14% of Texas voters remain undecided.

USA Today - Among voters leaning toward candidates, 19% lean toward Paxton, 10% toward Talarico, and 5% toward Libertarian Ted Brown.

USA Today - Talarico is favored among Black voters by 63 points (71% to 8%) and Latino voters by 46 points (66% to 20%).

USA Today - Paxton leads among white voters by 20 points (53% to 33%).

WHERE:

USA Today - The poll was conducted in Texas, targeting likely Texas voters.

WHEN:

USA Today - The poll was conducted from July 15-17.

USA Today - The poll results were released on July 28, 2026.

WHY:

USA Today - Talarico's lead is attributed to voters believing he better understands the economic challenges working Texans face by 7 points and that they trust him to address affordability issues over Paxton by a 9-point margin.

USA Today - The poll follows a joint investigation published on July 7 alleging that Paxton had voted in six elections using a former address, prompting a complaint from the Collin County Democratic Party on July 14.

HOW:

USA Today - The poll surveyed 1,048 likely Texas voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

(UPDATED July 29, 2026 10:54 UTC)

In the Texas Senate race, Democratic candidate James Talarico is leading Republican candidate Ken Paxton by five points, with Talarico at 45% and Paxton at 40%, according to a recent poll conducted by the Texas Public Opinion Research. The survey, which included 1,048 likely Texas voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points, reveals that 14% of voters remain undecided, while Talarico enjoys significant support among Black and Latino voters. This lead follows a joint investigation alleging that Paxton voted in six elections using a former address, which has raised concerns among voters about his trustworthiness.