World Cup Drives Prediction Markets to Historic $50B in July

WHO:

CoinMarketCap - Kalshi and Polymarket are the main prediction market platforms involved.

bloomingbit - The Block reported on the trading volume data.

WHAT:

Casino.org - Rothera, a partnership between Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group, had a total ADV of $70 million in July, representing 3.7% of industry ADV.

Casino.org - Other platforms tracked had $161 million ADV in July, with a market share of 8% of industry ADV, down from 10% in June.

Casino.org - Sports open interest came in at $1.16 billion in July, down 28% month-over-month.

Casino.org - Non-sports open interest was $423 million in July, down 22% month-over-month.

Casino.org - Average daily volume (ADV) across U.S. prediction markets approached $2 billion in July, reaching $1.91 billion.

Casino.org - Non-sports turnover on prediction markets increased by 5% month-over-month to $424 million in July.

Casino.org - Sports ADV grew by 12% month-over-month to $1.333 billion in July, with sports accounting for 76% of total ADV.

Casino.org - The prediction market volume generated by the 2026 FIFA World Cup reached a record $20 billion, surpassing the previous largest event, the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election, which generated $3.6 billion.

CoinMarketCap - Prediction market trading reached a record $50.59 billion in July, up 7.8% from $46.95 billion in June.

CoinMarketCap - Kalshi accounted for $37.7 billion of the total volume, a 14% increase from June.

CoinMarketCap - Polymarket's volume fell 26% to $7.9 billion, while Polymarket US grew 54% to $5 billion.

CoinMarketCap - The combined volume for Polymarket and Polymarket US decreased from $14 billion to $12.9 billion.

CoinMarketCap - Approximately $1.9 billion was traded on Kalshi's market for the World Cup final between Spain and Argentina.

CoinMarketCap - Polymarket's market on the overall tournament winner attracted around $4 billion.

CoinMarketCap - Open interest across all three platforms fell from approximately $2 billion at the start of July to $1.2 billion by the end of the month, a drop of roughly 40%.

WHERE:

CoinMarketCap - Polymarket US is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in the United States.

WHEN:

CoinMarketCap - The FIFA World Cup tournament ran from June 11 through July 19.

CoinMarketCap - Polymarket US removed its waitlist in May, allowing access to all US users.

WHY:

CoinMarketCap - The increase in trading volume was driven by strong interest during the FIFA World Cup.

CoinMarketCap - More than a dozen state regulators have accused Kalshi and Polymarket of running unlicensed gambling operations.

HOW:

CoinMarketCap - Hyperliquid's permissionless deployment function went live on the testnet, allowing third-party teams to create and operate outcome prediction markets.

Casino.org - Rothera, a partnership between Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group, launched in June and had a total ADV of $70 million in July, representing 3.7% of industry ADV.

CoinMarketCap - Kalshi and Polymarket are contesting enforcement actions from state regulators, arguing that federal oversight takes precedence over state-level rules.

Rothera, a collaboration between Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group, reported a total average daily volume of $70 million in July, which accounts for 3.7% of the industry's total ADV. In contrast, other platforms tracked had an average daily volume of $161 million for the same month, marking a decline in market share from 10% in June to 8% in July, while sports open interest fell to $1.16 billion, down 28% month-over-month. Additionally, Hyperliquid's permissionless deployment function has launched on the testnet, enabling third-party teams to create and manage outcome prediction markets.