Musk Pacs Spend $400M as El Niño Threatens California Deluge

WHO:

The Washington Post - California Gov. Gavin Newsom, state agencies, emergency officials, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), FEMA Administrator Cameron Hamilton, and President Donald Trump’s administration are involved in preparations for potential storms and flooding.

The Washington Post - Newsom said, “They swore an oath to serve this country and protect the American people. Now they’re abandoning FEMA’s mission and telling Americans in states across the country to fend for themselves.”

The Washington Post - A California emergency management official, speaking anonymously, recalled Hamilton telling state leaders, “the water is now shut off, you are on your own.”

Yale Climate Connections - Climate scientist Daniel Swain assessed California winter-weather risks; meteorologist Jan Null said a very wet winter does not necessarily produce destructive flooding.

Yale Climate Connections - The Brennan Center reported that FEMA had lost 17 percent of its staff since 2025, including one-third of full-time employees responsible for day-to-day operations.

WHAT:

The Washington Post - California directed agencies to prepare “6.2 million sandbags, more than 52,000 feet of portable flood barriers, and 400,000 tons of rock” for emergency levee repairs; crews are inspecting levees, bypasses, and waterways.

The Washington Post - FEMA had not issued a policy or written declaration specifying plans to withdraw federal aid. The anonymous California official said, “States are in a new era of being in this alone.”

Yale Climate Connections - Eight of 10 seasonal forecast models gave at least a 10 percent chance that one or more months from January through March 2027 would be the wettest on record in Southern or Central California. In some Central Coast locations, Swain estimated odds of 40–50 percent; he put the chance of a dry winter at 5–10 percent or less.

Yale Climate Connections - About 13 percent of 454 European Copernicus model ensemble members predicted California’s wettest winter on record; 8 percent showed statewide December-through-February precipitation below average.

Yale Climate Connections - Swain said the risk of a damaging California megastorm this winter was “at least 10x baseline,” implying at least a 10 percent risk of a flood costing more than $10 billion in 2023 dollars.

Yale Climate Connections - A 2022 study found climate change had doubled the risk of a megastorm and more than tripled the risk of a trillion-dollar megaflood. A separate study estimated a 1 percent annual chance of a Los Angeles-area flood inundating about $56 billion in property and affecting about 425,000 people to a depth of at least one foot.

Yale Climate Connections - California coastal waters from San Francisco Bay southward were 2–6°C (3.6–10.8°F) above average and record-warm from San Francisco Bay to Los Angeles. Swain said coastal waters could average 8–10°F above average in winter, adding moisture to storms.

Yale Climate Connections - Warm coastal waters may mean more mountain precipitation falls as rain, with snow mainly at the highest elevations; atmospheric instability may increase coastal thunderstorm, flash-flood, damaging-wind, and isolated-tornado risks.

Yale Climate Connections - Los Angeles water levels rose 9.5 inches from May through September 2026 and were about 1–2 feet above expected levels during October. Hurricane Rachel’s waves inundated nearly all of the Balboa Peninsula by 2–3 feet.

Yale Climate Connections - A March analysis reported that President Donald Trump approved 23 percent of blue-state disaster-aid requests, compared with 89 percent of red-state requests.

WHERE:

The Washington Post - California is preparing vulnerable regions for storms, flooding, and possible levee damage.

Yale Climate Connections - The risk outlook covers California, including the Central Valley, Central Coast, Southern California, and the Los Angeles area.

WHEN:

Yale Climate Connections - King tides are expected November 24-26, 2026, December 22-25, 2026, and January 20-23, 2027; the article says they are almost certain to cause coastal flooding, including on calm days.

Yale Climate Connections - Swain was scheduled to discuss megaflood risks during a 30-minute Zoom call at 7:30 p.m. EDT Wednesday, October 21.

(UPDATED October 21, 2026 16:13 UTC)

California is preparing for a potentially dangerous winter of storms and flooding, while state officials warn they may have to manage emergencies with less federal help. The state has directed agencies to prepare 6.2 million sandbags, more than 52,000 feet of portable flood barriers and 400,000 tons of rock, as crews inspect levees and waterways. California’s governor accused the Trump administration of abandoning FEMA’s mission, though FEMA has issued no written plan to withdraw federal aid. Forecasts show a heightened chance of an exceptionally wet winter, and climate scientist Daniel Swain says the risk of a damaging megastorm is at least 10 times the baseline. Warm coastal waters could add moisture to storms and bring more mountain precipitation as rain. FEMA has lost 17 percent of its staff since 2025, including a third of its full-time operations employees.