Fake Poll Scandal Roils Democrats as GOP Forecast Improves
WHO:
PBS - Columbia University statistics and political science professor Andrew Gelman questioned whether Wedgewood Polling had always intended its work as an experiment, writing that the timing of its statement—on the day it was caught—was “kind of suspicious.”
PBS - FiftyPlusOne identified Jack Sims and Andrew Prater as the people running Wedgewood Polling and said Sims had prior polling experience.
Fox News - FiftyPlusOne co-founder G. Elliott Morris said the group was investigating Wedgewood and had emailed it for comment before the group’s admission.
Fox News - Former Obama staffer Tommy Vietor described Wedgewood’s actions on X as “lying and fraud.”
Fox News - Wisconsin Assembly member Francesca Hong lost the Democratic gubernatorial primary to the establishment-backed candidate.
Washington Examiner - Neera Tanden, a Haley Stevens supporter, wrote that “a lot of smart people fell for the op.”
Washington Examiner - Retiring Sen. Gary Peters said he had seen polls that were questionable “right from the start” for his race.
Fox News - Wedgewood’s Nebraska gubernatorial and Senate polling GoFundMe raised $500 of its $5,000 goal.
Newsweek - Polling analyst Nate Silver removed fabricated Wedgewood Polling results from his forecast aggregations and said the polls had generally been about 1 point more favorable to Democrats than the broader consensus.
Newsweek - The Michigan Senate candidates discussed were Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers, a former U.S. representative.
Fox News - Wedgewood Polling acknowledged fabricating most of its polls. Its results were cited by El-Sayed’s campaign and by the nonpartisan aggregator Political Polls.
Washington Examiner - Michigan state Sen. Mallory McMorrow said fabricated polling harmed her campaign. She said donations dried up, volunteers panicked, and reporters urged her to drop out; she withdrew from the race.
Fox News - Democratic strategist Jennifer Holdsworth said donors pulled back funding from a super PAC she ran for McMorrow while the campaign was being outspent by $80 million.
Fox News - Veteran Democratic strategist Mike Nellis called Wedgewood’s operators “absolute scumbags” and said they should be prosecuted “to the full extent of the law.”
Washington Examiner - Other people named in coverage included Wisconsin progressive Francesca Hong, Rep. Haley Stevens, Sen. Gary Peters, and Democratic strategist Neera Tanden.
WHAT:
PBS - FCC Chair Brendan Carr warned that broadcasters could violate regulatory obligations by airing fake polls. FCC Commissioner Anna Gomez disagreed, saying broadcasters reporting publicly available polling in good faith should not be punished when a poll is wrong.
PBS - FCC guidelines say enforcement for news distortion requires proof of deliberate distortion of a factual report; mere inaccuracy or differences of opinion are not actionable.
PBS - Ipsos senior vice president Courtney Kennedy said Michigan’s Democratic primary polls often used text-to-web surveys, which reached progressive young voters more effectively than moderate voters. Phone interviews better reached Haley Stevens’s supporters; Kennedy said, “You get what you pay for.”
PBS - Abdul El-Sayed defeated Haley Stevens by one percentage point, despite several polls showing him with a comfortable double-digit lead.
PBS - Wedgewood Polling’s X account was opened in June 2026, and its website later displayed an error message.
PBS - Straight Arrow News reported that Wedgewood described itself as a two-person operation but declined to identify its members or appear on camera.
PBS - Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute of Public Opinion, said probability-based polls select samples so every person has a mathematically determined, nonzero chance of selection.
PBS - The Pew Research Center says polls that omit a margin of error risk failing to represent the larger population.
Washington Examiner - The Democratic Party has won a Senate seat in Michigan in every election since 1994, according to the article.
Washington Examiner - The article said polling momentum pointed toward Democrats taking the House, while Senate control remained close enough that a small polling error could change which party appeared favored.
Washington Examiner - The article reported that the White House party has lost House seats in all but two midterm elections since 1938.
Washington Examiner - Haley Stevens lost Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary to Abdul El-Sayed by a much smaller margin than polls predicted.
Washington Examiner - El-Sayed’s lead in the RealClearPolitics polling average was under 3 points, while Democrats were leading or within striking distance in Texas, Kansas, Iowa, and Ohio.
Washington Examiner - Wedgewood said its releases had been cited by MS Now; the organization also named VoteHub among aggregators that accepted its polls.
Silver Bulletin - A hypothetical model treating Senate races as independent coin flips gave Democrats a 91% chance of winning the Senate; Silver Bulletin’s FLIPR forecast put their odds in the mid-70s.
Silver Bulletin - Silver Bulletin said Democrats led in enough state polls to claim a 54–46 Senate majority under the independent-races approach.
Silver Bulletin - The article said Donald Trump sued pollster Ann Selzer over her 2024 poll showing Kamala Harris winning Iowa; the lawsuit was dismissed.
Newsweek - Silver’s forecast shifted slightly toward Republicans after fake polls were removed. In Michigan, El-Sayed’s lead fell from 3.6 points to 3 points; a Marist poll showing him ahead by 2 points also entered the model.
Newsweek - The generic-ballot average changed from 51.7% for Democrats and 42% for Republicans to 51.5% and 41.9%, respectively. Susan Collins and Troy Jackson each lost a small amount of support in Maine: 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points.
Newsweek - Between 15 and 17 Wedgewood polls had been cited by various sites before removal. Silver said Wedgewood was permanently banned from his aggregations.
Fox News - The New York Times removed 15 Wedgewood polls; Decision Desk HQ removed 17 and said the removals did not change its projected Senate or House seat totals or chamber-control probabilities.
Washington Examiner - Wedgewood said most of its results were not legitimate and described the project as an experiment concerning polling-industry vulnerabilities. It said it conducted one genuine poll, in Nebraska.
Washington Examiner - McMorrow said a late-June poll showed her falling to single digits, contradicting her campaign’s internal polling. She said she left the race on July 5.
Fox News - Wedgewood polls also showed Francesca Hong ahead of Republican Tom Tiffany in Wisconsin and James Talarico leading Ken Paxton among Hispanic voters in Texas, 64% to 30%.
Washington Examiner - Separate polling controversies involved Median Strategies’ fabricated Los Angeles mayoral poll and a pollster using unconventional methods for Florida Republican gubernatorial candidate James Fishback, who received 10.5% of the vote.
WHERE:
Newsweek - The forecast changes included the Michigan and Maine Senate races.
Fox News - Wedgewood polling was cited in races in Michigan, Wisconsin, Texas, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Nebraska.
Washington Examiner - The article discussed the Michigan Democratic Senate primary, Wisconsin’s gubernatorial race, and polling in Los Angeles and Florida.
WHY:
Silver Bulletin - Nate Silver said pollsters use Census Bureau demographic matching, past-vote benchmarks, and assumptions in likely-voter models to address lower survey response among Republican-leaning and noncollege voters.
Silver Bulletin - FLIPR’s lower Senate odds account for national and regional correlated polling errors, unlike a model treating each race independently.
Fox News - Wedgewood said it fabricated numbers to demonstrate vulnerabilities, weak oversight, and low barriers to entry in political polling.
Washington Examiner - Wedgewood said the project was intended to show how purported polling could gain credibility without independent verification.
HOW:
Newsweek - Silver said Wedgewood had previously answered aggregators’ questions about pollster identities, methods, and funding, which led to its polls being included.
Fox News - FiftyPlusOne researchers examined purported Wedgewood raw survey data, found irregularities, and contacted the organization for comment before its admission.
Washington Examiner - Wedgewood said fabricated results entered major aggregators and national media coverage despite the organization lacking formal credentials and genuine data for most releases.
(UPDATED October 22, 2026 02:11 UTC)
Wedgewood Polling acknowledged fabricating most of its results, which were cited in several high-profile races and by polling aggregators. Michigan state Sen. Mallory McMorrow said a misleading poll damaged her campaign, prompting donations to dry up and volunteers to panic; she withdrew from the race. Abdul El-Sayed defeated Haley Stevens in Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary by a much narrower margin than some polls predicted. Nate Silver removed Wedgewood’s numbers from his forecasts, permanently banned the firm, and said the change slightly shifted his projections toward Republicans. The New York Times and Decision Desk HQ also removed polls, though Decision Desk said its seat projections were unchanged. Wedgewood described its work as an experiment exposing vulnerabilities in polling, but analysts questioned that explanation. FCC Chair Brendan Carr warned broadcasters about airing fake polls, while Commissioner Anna Gomez said good-faith reporting should not be punished for inaccurate results.
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(UPDATED October 22, 2026 01:21 UTC)
Wedgewood Polling has acknowledged fabricating most of its results, saying it wanted to expose weaknesses in political polling and how easily unverified numbers could gain credibility. The fake polls were cited by campaigns, news organizations and major aggregators, after Wedgewood had answered questions about its identity, methods and funding. Researchers at FiftyPlusOne spotted irregularities in the purported raw data and contacted the group before its admission. The fallout includes Michigan, where Abdul El-Sayed beat Haley Stevens in the Democratic Senate primary by less than polls had predicted. Nate Silver removed Wedgewood’s results from his forecasts, slightly narrowing El-Sayed’s projected lead; other outlets also removed the polls. Michigan state Senator Mallory McMorrow said a misleading poll hurt her campaign, prompting donor pullbacks and volunteer anxiety before she withdrew. Wedgewood’s Nebraska polling fundraiser has raised just $500 toward its $5,000 goal.
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(UPDATED October 21, 2026 20:20 UTC)
A polling operation called Wedgewood acknowledged fabricating most of its political surveys, saying it wanted to expose weak oversight and how easily unverified results could gain credibility. The fake numbers appeared in major aggregators and news coverage, and were cited by campaigns, including Abdul El-Sayed’s Michigan Senate campaign. Nate Silver removed them from his forecasts and permanently banned Wedgewood; the adjustment slightly narrowed El-Sayed’s lead over Mike Rogers. Other aggregators also pulled the surveys, though Decision Desk HQ said its projections were unchanged. In Michigan, Mallory McMorrow said a misleading poll fueled panic, dried up donations and prompted reporters to urge her to quit; she later withdrew. Strategists said her campaign was already being heavily outspent. Wedgewood said it conducted one genuine poll, in Nebraska, and its fundraising effort there raised $500 toward a $5,000 goal.
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(UPDATED October 21, 2026 19:19 UTC)
Polling analyst Nate Silver removed fabricated Wedgewood Polling results from his forecast models after the organization admitted most of its polls were not legitimate. Wedgewood said it created the numbers to expose weak oversight and how easily unverified polling could gain credibility. Silver said the polls had generally favored Democrats by about a point and permanently banned Wedgewood from his aggregations. Their removal slightly shifted his forecasts toward Republicans: Abdul El-Sayed’s lead over Mike Rogers in Michigan fell from 3.6 points to 3 points, while the Democratic advantage in the generic ballot dipped slightly. The New York Times removed 15 Wedgewood polls, and Decision Desk HQ removed 17, saying its seat projections were unchanged. Michigan Democrat Mallory McMorrow said a misleading poll damaged her campaign, prompting donors and volunteers to retreat; she later withdrew. Researchers identified irregularities before Wedgewood acknowledged the fabrication.