Anti-trump Mood Gives Democrats an 11-Point Midterm Edge

WHO:

The Guardian - Maine Republican Sen. Susan Collins urged the Trump administration to reverse its waiver of Russian sanctions.

The Guardian - North Carolina Republican Sen. Thom Tillis criticized special envoy Steve Witkoff for calling Vladimir Putin a “humanitarian,” saying Witkoff should ask families of children Putin had kidnapped and murdered whether they agreed.

The Guardian - A 24-year-old Kansas man, Jaden J. Read of Clearwater, was arrested over alleged threats to shoot Trump.

NPR - G. Elliott Morris, author of the Strength In Numbers newsletter and CEO of Wave Polling and Research, said Trump’s ratings reached new lows on seven of the 10 issues tracked since May 2025 and that Trump was underwater on every issue asked about.

Yahoo - The Senate requires 51 seats for Democratic control; in a 50–50 split, Vice President JD Vance would cast the tiebreaking vote.

Yahoo - The listed Senate candidates include Mike Rogers and Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan; Michael Whatley and Roy Cooper in North Carolina; John E. Sununu and Chris Pappas in New Hampshire; Dan Sullivan and Mary Peltola in Alaska; Ashley Hinson and Josh Turek in Iowa; Ken Paxton and James Talarico in Texas; Pete Ricketts and Dan Osborn in Nebraska; Roger Marshall and Adam Hamilton in Kansas; and Darline Graham and Annie Andrews in South Carolina.

The Guardian - The New York Times and Siena University conducted a poll of likely voters.

The Guardian - The poll reported that Donald Trump’s approval rating was 36%, a new low for that survey.

CNN - SSRS conducted a national poll of 1,701 U.S. adults, including 1,206 registered voters.

CNN - CNN reporters Isabelle LaBianco and Katie Doran contributed to the report.

CNN - The poll’s respondents included registered voters, Black and Latino voters, women, younger adults, independents, and voters who said they were extremely motivated to vote.

WHAT:

The Guardian - A New Mexico judge ordered Meta to pay $25 billion after a jury found it had misled consumers about data privacy. Judge Francis Mathew said more than $219 billion was warranted under state law before reducing the penalty. The case involved allegations that Cambridge Analytica obtained Facebook user data without consent; the state said as many as 87 million users’ data had been harvested through a third-party app.

The Guardian - The Supreme Court left in place a lower-court block on the Trump administration’s policy ending gender-affirming care for transgender people in federal prisons. Justices Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas dissented.

The Guardian - Federal authorities said a Crime Stoppers tip led investigators to Read’s alleged Facebook threats. Read allegedly wrote, “Let’s shoot Trump honestly, where’s our shooter?” and “I just got a 308 and 305 round and I’m killing this pedo.” He was held pending a detention hearing.

The Guardian - The FBI reported that Americans lost almost $21 billion to cybercrime and internet scams.

NPR - A Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll found registered voters preferred Democratic congressional candidates 52% to 41%, and likely voters preferred them 54% to 42%.

NPR - Trump’s job approval was 34%, with 62% disapproving and 50% strongly disapproving.

NPR - Prices and inflation ranked among the country’s top three problems for 63% of respondents and were listed first by 39%.

NPR - Nearly one in 10 respondents who said they voted in the 2024 presidential race regretted their choice, including almost 15% of self-described Trump voters and 15% of third-party voters.

NPR - Democrats held a 47% to 35% advantage over Republicans in trust to handle respondents’ personal top issue, a nearly 10-point increase since May 2025.

NPR - A majority of respondents wanted Congress to roll back or check Trump’s positions on tariffs and trade, health care, foreign policy, elections and voting, government spending and social programs, immigration and deportations, and artificial intelligence.

NPR - The poll surveyed 2,028 respondents and reported a 2.2-percentage-point margin of sampling error.

Yahoo - Democrats need to gain three House seats to take control; the article reports that congressional maps redrawn by Republican lawmakers in Southern states could limit Democratic gains.

Yahoo - The RealClear Politics generic-ballot average showed Democrats ahead by about 9 points, with the lead growing over the preceding month.

Yahoo - Silver Bulletin’s average showed Trump’s job approval at 38% and disapproval at 60%, a net disapproval of 22 points. On cost of living, 24% approved and 73% disapproved of his handling.

Alternet - A Politico poll found that more than two-thirds of voters expected Democrats to try to impeach Trump if they won the House; voters were divided on whether House impeachment would meaningfully weaken him.

CNN - In autumn 2018, 55% of Americans said things in the United States were generally going well, and 69% described economic conditions as good; ahead of the 2026 midterms, those figures were 30% and 26%, respectively.

CNN - Nearly 4 in 10 Republican-aligned adults younger than 45 disapproved of Trump. Younger Republicans and Republican-leaning independents rated Trump about 20 points worse than older Republicans on the economy, inflation, and his priorities.

CNN - Strong motivation to vote was 29 points lower among younger than older Republican-aligned adults, compared with a 15-point age gap among Democratic-aligned adults.

CNN - Among voters who viewed both parties negatively, 90% said their votes were about changing Washington, while 65% said neither party could do a better job of bringing change. Among independent voters, 36% said a Democratic win in Congress would make no difference; the comparable shares were 29% among Latino voters and political moderates.

Alternet - A Politico poll found that 54% of Americans said Trump had committed impeachable offenses, including 81% of voters planning to support Democrats and one-quarter of Republican midterm voters. More than 41% said Trump used the presidency for financial benefit to himself or his family.

Alternet - Among Democratic midterm voters, 65% supported impeaching HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., 63% Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, 58% Vice President JD Vance, and 49% Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

CNN - The poll found 18% of voters held negative views of both parties.

The Guardian - Likely voters preferred Democratic candidates over Republicans by 11 percentage points.

The Guardian - The share identifying Democrats as the party of the working class rose from 48% to 53%; the Republican share fell from 45% to 40%.

CNN - Democrats led Republicans 49% to 39% among registered voters in voters’ choice for Congress in their districts—a 10-point advantage and the largest Democratic lead in CNN polling since just before the 2020 election.

CNN - Democrats led among Black voters by 70 points, Latino voters by 40, women by 21, younger adults by 31, independents by 15, and voters extremely motivated to vote by 18.

CNN - Roughly 6 in 10 voters said their midterm vote would send a message about Trump; by a 2-to-1 margin, they described the message as opposition rather than support.

CNN - Democrats led 46% to 37% among registered voters who named the economy as their top concern. About 3 in 10 voters said neither party would handle the economy and cost of living well.

CNN - Government corruption was the top concern for 19% of voters, and the state of U.S. democracy for 18%.

CNN - Trump’s approval was 32%, a poll record low and 7 points below his rating before the 2018 midterms. Strong approval was 13%, down 17 points from his last midterms.

CNN - Trump’s approval was 27% on the economy and 23% on inflation. Two-thirds of Americans said his policies had worsened economic conditions; nearly 7 in 10 said he had not gone far enough to reduce prices.

CNN - Trump’s approval among Republicans was 74%, down from 88% in February 2025. Nearly 4 in 10 Republican-aligned adults under 45 disapproved of him.

CNN - Among White adults without college degrees, 45% approved of Trump, down from 63% at the start of his second term; 40% strongly disapproved and 22% strongly approved.

CNN - Of those White adults, 53% approved of Trump’s handling of immigration and 55% of voting rights and election integrity; 64% disapproved of his economy handling and 68% of his inflation handling.

CNN - Forty-one percent said the country would be better off if Democrats won control of Congress, 37% said worse off, and 22% said there would be no difference.

CNN - Voters who had already voted favored Democrats 70% to 29%; those yet to vote favored Democrats 46% to Republicans 41%.

CNN - About 13% of registered voters said they had already cast ballots; roughly half planned to vote on Election Day, with the remainder planning early or mail voting.

CNN - Both parties had net-negative favorability ratings. Voters with negative views of both parties favored their district’s Democrat 48% to 28%; 18% supported neither.

CNN - About 4 in 10 voters said neither party would better handle government corruption; voters with a preference slightly favored Democrats.

WHERE:

NPR - The poll was shared with NPR.

CNN - The poll measured preferences for congressional candidates in voters’ own districts and nationwide.

WHEN:

NPR - Strength In Numbers/Verasight conducted the survey from Oct. 13-19.

CNN - SSRS conducted the poll from October 15-18.

WHY:

The Guardian - Collins said waiving Russian sanctions would not measurably increase U.S. diesel supply but would give Russia more funding to attack Ukraine.

NPR - Fifty-eight percent of respondents said electing a Congress to check and balance Trump was more important than electing one to help him pass his agenda; 25% chose helping him pass it.

NPR - Two in five respondents said their vote would mostly be a statement against Trump and his agenda, while one in five said it would show support.

Yahoo - The article said a Democratic House majority could block Trump’s agenda, investigate his administration, and impeach him; a Democratic Senate majority could obstruct his Supreme Court nominees.

CNN - The article said cost-of-living concerns and dissatisfaction with Trump’s performance contributed to Democrats’ advantage.

CNN - More than three-quarters of voters viewed the election as a chance to change things in Washington.

HOW:

CNN - SSRS surveyed a random national sample of adults from a probability-based panel, online or by telephone with a live interviewer.

CNN - The margin of sampling error was ±2.9 percentage points for the full sample and ±3.3 points among registered voters.

(UPDATED October 22, 2026 03:09 UTC)

Several polls show Democrats holding a substantial lead in congressional preferences, while President Trump’s approval has fallen to new lows. CNN’s survey found Democrats ahead 49% to 39% among registered voters, and another poll showed a double-digit Democratic advantage among likely voters. Trump’s approval was 34% in one survey, with 62% disapproving; another put it at 36%, a record low for that poll. Prices and inflation ranked among Americans’ top concerns, and most respondents wanted Congress to check Trump on issues including trade, health care and immigration. Separately, a New Mexico judge ordered Meta to pay $25 billion after a jury found it misled consumers about privacy. The Supreme Court also left in place a block on ending gender-affirming care in federal prisons. Republican senators criticized the administration’s Russia sanctions waiver and envoy Steve Witkoff’s praise of Vladimir Putin.

--

(UPDATED October 22, 2026 02:11 UTC)

Several polls show Democrats holding a substantial advantage in congressional races, while President Trump’s approval has fallen to record lows. CNN found Democrats leading 49% to 39% among registered voters, with an 11-point edge among likely voters in a separate New York Times and Siena University poll. Trump’s approval was 32% in the CNN survey and 36% in the Times-Siena poll. Another survey put his approval at 34%, with 62% disapproving. Voters were especially critical of his economic record: CNN found just 27% approved of his handling of the economy, and two-thirds said his policies had worsened conditions. Prices and inflation were among voters’ top concerns. About six in ten said their midterm vote would send a message about Trump, and twice as many described that message as opposition rather than support. Democrats also led on trust to handle voters’ top personal issues.

--

(UPDATED October 21, 2026 22:22 UTC)

Democrats hold a strong polling advantage ahead of the midterms, while President Trump’s approval has fallen to record lows in a CNN survey. Democrats lead Republicans 49% to 39% among registered voters in congressional races, their biggest advantage in CNN polling since before the 2020 election. A separate New York Times and Siena poll found Democrats ahead by 11 points, while Trump’s approval stood at 36%. CNN measured his approval at 32%, including just 27% on the economy and 23% on inflation. Two-thirds of Americans said his policies had worsened economic conditions. Cost-of-living concerns appear central: voters who named the economy as their top issue favored Democrats by nine points. About six in ten said their vote would send a message about Trump, and most described it as opposition. Democrats need three House seats to take control; the Senate requires a net gain of four seats for a majority.

--

(UPDATED October 21, 2026 20:23 UTC)

Democrats hold a double-digit advantage over Republicans in a new poll of likely voters, while President Trump’s approval has fallen to a record low in a separate national survey. Democrats lead 49% to 39% among registered voters choosing a candidate for Congress in their district, and likely voters favor them by 11 points. Trump’s approval stands at 32%, with just 13% strongly approving; another poll put his rating at 36%, the lowest in that survey. Economic concerns appear central: 67% disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy, and two-thirds say his policies have worsened conditions. About six in ten say their midterm vote will send a message about Trump, with twice as many signaling opposition as support. Democrats also lead among independents, women, younger adults, and voters most motivated to turn out. Still, many voters say neither party would improve the economy or cost of living.

--

(UPDATED October 21, 2026 19:26 UTC)

Two national polls show Democrats with a substantial advantage in the midterm congressional vote, as President Trump’s approval reaches new lows. In CNN’s survey, Democrats led Republicans 49% to 39% among registered voters, the largest Democratic lead in the network’s polling since before the 2020 election. A separate poll of likely voters found Democrats ahead by 11 points. CNN found the Democratic lead extended across Black and Latino voters, women, younger adults and independents. About six in ten voters said their midterm vote would send a message about Trump, and twice as many described that message as opposition rather than support. Trump’s approval stood at 32% in the CNN poll, including 27% on the economy and 23% on inflation. Two-thirds said his policies had worsened economic conditions, while cost-of-living concerns and dissatisfaction with his performance were linked to Democrats’ advantage.