Early Midterm Voting Offers Clues for Wall Street’s Future

WHO:

Yahoo - Sen. Lindsey Graham’s sister, Darline Graham, said she needed a “private conversation” to discuss President Trump’s decision to pause the Russia sanctions bill she helped pass.

Yahoo - Vice President JD Vance said the U.S. government should direct Elon Musk’s decisions about Starlink in Ukraine; Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the U.S. did not order or direct the network throttling.

Yahoo - Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez campaigned for Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed.

Yahoo - President Trump criticized LeBron James for continuing warm-ups during the national anthem at Philadelphia’s season opener, saying James should apologize to U.S. service members and veterans.

Associated Press - Republican Sen. Thom Tillis called on those responsible for the Ukraine Starlink slowdown to “raise your hand.”

Associated Press - Vice President JD Vance urged Republicans to ignore polling, saying polls can have a “demotivating effect on our voters.”

Associated Press - Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez campaigned in Maine with Democratic Senate candidate Troy Jackson, who is challenging Republican Sen. Susan Collins.

Associated Press - Calley Means, a Make America Healthy Again adviser, resigned from the Trump administration and said he left with “tremendous respect” for President Trump and Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Associated Press - Republican Ashley Hinson, who serves in the U.S. House, is running against Democrat Josh Turek in Iowa’s Senate race and said she would be President Trump’s “top ally.”

Associated Press - Vice President JD Vance is scheduled to campaign for Republican Sen. Roger Marshall in Topeka, Kansas.

Associated Press - Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal opened an inquiry into the slowing of SpaceX’s Starlink and Starshield services for Ukraine and sent letters to Elon Musk and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.

Associated Press - The State Department announced the return of the Pickering, Rangel and Payne fellowships for graduate students pursuing Foreign Service careers, with higher stipends and living-expense payments.

Associated Press - Vice President JD Vance said Elon Musk runs a private corporation and that U.S. policy should direct decisions about Starlink in Ukraine.

Associated Press - Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine called a campaign ad featuring Amy Acton’s estranged mother “deeply, deeply troubling” and urged Republican nominee Vivek Ramaswamy to take it down.

Associated Press - Federal authorities charged Virginia state Sen. L. Louise Lucas and six others with alleged marijuana trafficking and money laundering; Lucas surrendered.

ABC News - More than 18 million Americans had voted early by mail or in person.

ABC News - Registered Democrats and voters modeled by L2 as likely to support Democrats accounted for a higher share of early ballots in every state except Alaska and Michigan, where their share was similar to 2024.

ABC News - L2 aggregates voter registration data with other sources to analyze voter characteristics, including demographics and partisanship; its analysis included voters it matched across elections.

ABC News - An ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll found 72% of Democratic voters said they were certain to vote, compared with 65% of Republican voters. A Reuters/Ipsos poll found 36% of Democrats were very enthusiastic about voting, compared with 29% of Republicans.

Bloomberg Markets - Democrats are expected to gain a majority in at least the House of Representatives; the outlook for Senate control is less certain, though Democratic candidates have a polling edge in key races.

WHAT:

Yahoo - The Associated Press reported that early voting was surging compared with the previous midterm election in many states expected to determine Senate control.

Yahoo - Voter-identification proposals in California, Colorado and Nevada would require driver’s license or partial Social Security numbers on mail-in ballots.

Associated Press - The Senate contest in Kansas is the most expensive in the state’s history; no Democrat has won a Kansas Senate seat since 1932.

Associated Press - Trump said Republican Ohio gubernatorial nominee Vivek Ramaswamy should keep airing an ad featuring Amy Acton’s estranged mother, calling it “hitting pay dirt.” Ramaswamy’s campaign is spending $4 million to broadcast the ad online and on television.

Associated Press - The Pentagon memo cited the case of a U.S. Special Forces soldier charged in April with using classified information about the operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to win more than $400,000 on Polymarket.

Associated Press - The Ukraine Starlink speed restrictions left the country more exposed to Russian Shahed drones, which can fly faster than 400 kph (250 mph).

Associated Press - The three Foreign Service fellowships will resume with lower enrollment; the State Department did not clarify whether acceptance criteria had changed.

Associated Press - Travel bans target 40 Bolivians and 21 Colombians, including two sitting Bolivian members of parliament and a current Colombian mayor; the measures revoke existing U.S. visas and block future applications.

Associated Press - Vance paused a Nebraska rally after a person appeared to collapse, led the crowd in the Lord’s Prayer, and asked his staff to send a doctor.

Associated Press - Republican groups committed $26 million to television and digital advertising in Kansas; total Republican ad spending was $32 million, compared with $38 million committed by Democrat Adam Hamilton and Democratic groups, for $71 million overall.

Associated Press - A federal judge ordered Trump to sit for a deposition in his defamation lawsuit against the BBC by Dec. 11; he could face sanctions, including dismissal of the suit, if he does not comply unless discovery is extended beyond Dec. 18.

Associated Press - The Justice Department sued over ballots from 20,000 people in California whom the administration says may not be citizens; California officials said setting those ballots aside was not feasible and that checks indicated many were citizens.

Associated Press - Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes and Secretary of State Adrian Fontes sued Maricopa County Recorder Justin Heap, seeking restoration of voting eligibility for 25 people investigators determined were U.S. citizens.

Associated Press - President Trump said Starlink was again operating at full speed for Ukraine and said, “I guess the bottom line, he put it back.”

Associated Press - The Pentagon issued a memo prohibiting troops and department personnel from using classified or nonpublic unclassified information to bet on prediction markets; violations could bring administrative or criminal penalties.

Associated Press - The Trump administration imposed travel bans on 61 current and former Bolivian and Colombian officials, judges, lawmakers and family members over alleged corruption and narcotrafficking.

ABC News - In the past two elections, total votes were divided relatively evenly among early in-person, mail-in, and Election Day voting.

ABC News - Early ballots showed a larger Democratic share, consistent with higher Democratic turnout in primary elections and polling that indicated greater Democratic voting enthusiasm.

ABC News - In Georgia and Iowa, the early and absentee vote was about 18 percentage points more Democratic than in 2024.

ABC News - A Pew Research Center survey matched respondents to their 2024 voting records and estimated Democrats led by 24 points among mail or absentee voters; Republicans led by 14 points among early in-person voters and 16 points on Election Day. Estimates were consistent with results from 11 states that report vote method.

ABC News - In an ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll, likely voters who planned to vote early or had done so favored Democrats by 26 points. Early in-person voters favored Democrats by 14 points; voters planning to return ballots before Election Day favored Democrats by 50 points; those planning to vote in person on Election Day favored Republicans by 11 points.

Bloomberg Markets - Wall Street is bracing for stocks to fall if Democrats regain control of both congressional chambers. Control of even one chamber would give Democrats committee majorities able to propose legislation and hold hearings.

WHERE:

Associated Press - Vance’s rally was held in North Platte, Nebraska; Ocasio-Cortez and Jackson held their Maine event in Portland.

Associated Press - The reported Senate contests include Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan and Ohio; the Starlink service slowdown affected Ukraine.

ABC News - The analysis covered early voting across the United States and reported state-level findings for Alaska, Michigan, Georgia, and Iowa.

Bloomberg Markets - The election concerns the United States Congress and control of the House and Senate.

WHEN:

Yahoo - The State Department announced Thursday that the Pickering, Rangel and Payne fellowships would return.

ABC News - The articles describe early voting in the 2026 midterm elections; ABC News’ voter-file analysis was run on Tuesday, and its reported early-vote counts were current as of Thursday morning.

ABC News - In Michigan and Georgia, the reported ballot totals were as of Oct. 19.

Bloomberg Markets - The article describes the 2026 US midterm election as less than a month away.

WHY:

Yahoo - Vance said Musk did not want to become involved in a war between two countries without the U.S. government directing him.

Yahoo - Darline Graham said she did not raise the Russia sanctions waiver with President Trump during their flight to Washington because other people were present.

ABC News - In Georgia, the article said the lower share of low-propensity voters in 2026 was understandable because it is not a presidential election year.

ABC News - ABC News said early voting is only one indicator and does not establish whether lower-propensity voters will vote later or on Election Day. Past elections saw Republicans more likely to vote on Election Day, and Republican candidates won Election Day votes.

Bloomberg Markets - Wall Street’s concern about stocks falling is tied to the possibility that Democrats regain control of both congressional chambers.

HOW:

Associated Press - The Trump administration said it may pursue additional lawsuits in other states over voter eligibility; Attorney General Todd Blanche said challenging election certification was not the Justice Department’s intention.

Associated Press - The Pentagon memo said betting on military outcomes creates a signal that adversaries can monitor; it cited platforms including Polymarket and Kalshi.

ABC News - In Georgia, lower-propensity voters were described as more Democratic by modeled partisanship than in 2024; the article said whether lower-propensity Republicans turn out will affect Republican competitiveness.

ABC News - L2 models likely party preference in states without party registration using information such as primary turnout; neither party registration nor modeled preference guarantees a vote for that party’s candidates.

ABC News - In Michigan, about 670,000 people had voted; 90% had voted in at least three of the previous four general elections, and 1.3% were new or newly returned voters. Among voters who participated in all four, 58% were Democrats and 40% Republicans, compared with 57% and 41%, respectively, in 2024.

ABC News - In Georgia, nearly 850,000 votes had been cast. Voters who participated in all four of the previous general elections accounted for 71% of ballots, compared with 63% in 2024; the article said lower-propensity voters were a smaller share but more Democratic by modeled partisanship than in 2024.

(UPDATED October 23, 2026 14:20 UTC)

More than 18 million Americans have voted early, with Democrats accounting for a larger share of ballots in nearly every state analyzed. Polls also show Democratic voters more likely than Republicans to say they are certain or enthusiastic about voting, while Democrats are favored to win the House; Senate control remains less certain. The campaign spotlight is on Kansas, where the Senate race is the state’s most expensive ever, and Vice President JD Vance is urging Republicans not to be discouraged by polling. The fight over Ukraine’s Starlink service has drawn scrutiny: Vance said U.S. policy should guide Elon Musk’s decisions, while officials disputed that Washington directed the slowdown. President Trump says Starlink is back at full speed. Meanwhile, a federal judge has ordered Trump to sit for a deposition in his BBC defamation lawsuit by Dec. 11.

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(UPDATED October 23, 2026 13:18 UTC)

Early voting is showing a stronger Democratic share, with more than 18 million Americans already casting ballots. Polls also find Democrats more certain and enthusiastic about voting, and early voters favor Democrats, while Election Day voters lean Republican. Democrats are expected to gain the House, though the Senate remains uncertain. In Kansas, Republican Sen. Roger Marshall faces a costly challenge from Democrat Adam Hamilton; Vice President JD Vance is campaigning for Marshall, while Republican Ashley Hinson says she would be President Trump’s top ally in Iowa’s Senate race. Vance also urged Republicans not to be discouraged by polls. The Ukraine Starlink slowdown drew scrutiny from Sen. Richard Blumenthal, while President Trump said service had returned to full speed. The administration imposed travel bans on 61 Bolivian and Colombian officials and associates. Federal authorities charged Virginia state Sen. L. Louise Lucas and six others with alleged trafficking and money laundering.

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(UPDATED October 23, 2026 02:16 UTC)

More than 18 million Americans have voted early in the midterms, and early ballots show a larger Democratic share in nearly every state. Polls also find Democrats more likely than Republicans to say they are certain or enthusiastic about voting, though early returns alone do not predict the final outcome: Republicans have often held an advantage among Election Day voters. The political stakes are high, with Democrats favored to win the House and competitive Senate races drawing heavy spending. In Kansas, Republican groups have committed $26 million to advertising, while Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton and allied groups have committed $38 million. In Ukraine, President Trump said Starlink service had returned to full speed after a slowdown prompted an inquiry from Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal. Vice President JD Vance said U.S. policy should guide decisions about the service.

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(UPDATED October 22, 2026 20:19 UTC)

More than 18 million Americans have voted early in the 2026 midterms, and early ballots show a larger Democratic share across nearly every state. Democrats also appear more energized: 72% of Democratic voters said they were certain to vote, compared with 65% of Republicans, while another poll found greater enthusiasm among Democrats. In Georgia and Iowa, early and absentee voting has been about 18 percentage points more Democratic than in 2024. Polls suggest voters planning to return ballots before Election Day strongly favor Democrats, while Election Day voters lean Republican. But early voting is only one indicator, and Republicans have historically done better with Election Day ballots. Democrats are expected to gain the House, while Senate control remains uncertain despite Democratic advantages in key races.

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(UPDATED October 22, 2026 16:23 UTC)

More than 18 million Americans have voted early in the 2026 midterms, and early ballots show a larger Democratic share than in 2024. Democrats and voters modeled as likely to support them made up a higher share in nearly every state, while the shares were similar in Alaska and Michigan. In Georgia and Iowa, early and absentee voting was about 18 points more Democratic than in 2024. Polls also show stronger Democratic enthusiasm: 72% of Democratic voters said they were certain to vote, compared with 65% of Republicans. Among likely voters planning to vote early, Democrats led by 26 points. But early voting is only one indicator: Republicans have often held an advantage among Election Day voters. Democrats are expected to gain the House, while Senate control remains uncertain. Wall Street is bracing for stocks to fall if Democrats take both chambers.