Israel Election Polls Forecast Another Deadlock

WHO:

Jewish Insider - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu leads one electoral bloc; Gadi Eisenkot leads the bloc opposing him.

Jewish Insider - Netanyahu’s Likud party polled at 23 seats, compared with 21 for Eisenkot’s Yashar party.

Jewish Insider - The Arab parties Joint List and Ra’am polled at an average of 14 seats.

Jewish Insider - Amcha Yisrael and the Reservists and Economy Party were near the 3.25% electoral threshold in recent weeks but did not receive enough votes to enter the Knesset in the overall polling average or right-leaning media polls.

Drudge Report - The headline reported that final Israeli polls pointed to a stalemate ahead of the election.

WHAT:

Jewish Insider - Final polls projected neither Netanyahu’s bloc nor the opposing bloc to reach the 61 seats needed for a Knesset majority.

Jewish Insider - The overall polling average projected 54 seats for Netanyahu’s bloc and 50 for the opposition.

Jewish Insider - An average of six mainstream TV and newspaper polls gave the Eisenkot-led bloc more seats than the current coalition; an average of polls from the last two days projected 52 seats for Eisenkot’s bloc and 50 for Netanyahu’s.

Jewish Insider - Averages of polls from Channel 14 and i24 News projected Netanyahu’s coalition at 61 seats and Eisenkot’s bloc at 45 seats.

Jewish Insider - The Joint List and Ra’am’s 14-seat average was one seat below the 15 seats they won in 2020 when they ran together.

Jewish Insider - Stat-Net estimated Arab voter turnout could reach 68–69%, compared with turnout hovering around 50% over the preceding decade.

Jewish Insider - In more left-leaning polls, the Reservists and Economy Party averaged three seats and had not pledged to recommend either Netanyahu or Eisenkot for prime minister.

WHERE:

Jewish Insider - The election is in Israel; the elected legislature is the Knesset.

WHEN:

Jewish Insider - The article says the election is “next Tuesday” and identifies it as “the Oct. 27 election”; Israeli law prohibits releasing new polls from Friday until the election.

Jewish Insider - The article compares the Arab parties’ projected seats with their result in 2020.

WHY:

Jewish Insider - Higher overall voter turnout would raise the number of votes required to meet the minimum threshold for entering the Knesset.

HOW:

Jewish Insider - The polling figures varied by outlet: mainstream TV and newspaper polls favored Eisenkot’s bloc, while polls on Channel 14 and i24 News—using pollsters who had previously worked for Likud—projected a Netanyahu-bloc majority.

(UPDATED October 22, 2026 22:15 UTC)

Final polls in Israel point to a stalemate, with neither Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc nor the opposition led by Gadi Eisenkot projected to reach the 61 seats needed for a Knesset majority. The overall polling average gives Netanyahu’s bloc 54 seats and the opposition 50. Recent polls from mainstream television and newspapers put Eisenkot’s bloc ahead, while Channel 14 and i24 News project Netanyahu’s coalition at 61 seats, against 45 for the opposition. Netanyahu’s Likud is polling at 23 seats, compared with 21 for Eisenkot’s Yashar party. The Arab parties Joint List and Ra’am average 14 seats, one fewer than they won together in 2020. Stat-Net estimates Arab turnout could reach 68 to 69 percent, above the roughly 50 percent seen in recent years. Higher turnout would also raise the vote threshold for entering the Knesset. Amcha Yisrael and the Reservists and Economy Party remain below that threshold in overall polling.