Poll Signals Democratic Midterm Edge as Trump Pushes Power Grab

WHO:

MS NOW - Joe Scarborough, host of “Morning Joe,” discussed a New York Times–Siena University poll of likely voters.

MS NOW - The poll compared Democratic and Republican candidates for Congress; it also asked voters which party they trusted on healthcare, cost of living, foreign wars, and artificial-intelligence threats.

Alternet - Scarborough and reporter Maggie Haberman had discussed their speculation about President Donald Trump’s political behavior.

Alternet - Jonathan Lemire said Trump’s focus was on “changing the chyron at the bottom of the television” and on gaining “advantage,” “attention,” “wealth” or “power.”

Alternet - Scarborough and Lemire discussed Trump, Stephen Miller, Republicans, and voters who had supported Trump for his immigration plan.

WHAT:

MS NOW - The poll found Democrats leading Republicans nationally by 11 points ahead of the midterms. Likely voters preferred a Democrat to represent their congressional district by 52% to 41%.

MS NOW - On healthcare, 57% trusted Democrats to do a better job, compared with 37% for Republicans. On cost of living, voters favored Democrats 55% to 40%.

MS NOW - Republicans trailed Democrats by 10 points on handling foreign wars. Voters preferred Democrats to address potential AI threats, 48% to 37%.

MS NOW - Scarborough called the poll “absolutely extraordinary” and said, “My, how things have changed in two years.” He said Trump “can’t get out of the war he started in Iran.”

Alternet - Scarborough said Trump “always wants to see how much he can get away with,” including how much Republicans, the media, and courts would permit.

Alternet - Scarborough said Trump and Stephen Miller had dismantled Trump’s advantage with Hispanic voters, who had supported his plan to deport “the worst of the worst.” The article said the administration had targeted people with no criminal history, including no violent-crime background.

Alternet - Lemire said Trump had “blown all that political capital,” citing Iran and hardline deportation policies. He said Trump’s rally appearances appeared to have done more harm than good and that polls showed Trump and his party underwater on every issue, including former strengths.

Alternet - Scarborough cited Trump’s remarks at rallies in South Carolina about Darline Graham’s husband and in Ohio about Senator Jon Husted’s posterior.

WHERE:

MS NOW - The poll measured national voter preferences.

Alternet - The article described Trump’s rally remarks in South Carolina and Ohio.

WHY:

MS NOW - Scarborough attributed Democrats’ polling advantage in part to Republican healthcare and cost-of-living positions, Trump’s handling of international issues, and his lack of action on AI regulation.

HOW:

MS NOW - The New York Times and Siena University poll surveyed likely voters and reported party preferences and issue-trust results.

Alternet - Scarborough and Lemire characterized Trump’s actions as boundary-pushing to gain attention, advantage, wealth, or power.

(UPDATED October 22, 2026 23:11 UTC)

A national poll of likely voters gives Democrats an 11-point lead over Republicans ahead of the midterms. In the New York Times–Siena University survey, voters preferred a Democrat to represent their congressional district, 52% to 41%. Democrats also led on healthcare, 57% to 37%, and the cost of living, 55% to 40%. Republicans trailed by 10 points on foreign wars, while voters favored Democrats on addressing artificial-intelligence threats, 48% to 37%. Joe Scarborough called the results “absolutely extraordinary” and linked the Democratic advantage to Republican positions on everyday costs, international issues, and AI regulation. He also said President Trump “can’t get out of the war he started in Iran.” Scarborough and Jonathan Lemire argued that Trump’s hardline deportation policies had cost him support among Hispanic voters who backed deporting serious criminals. Lemire said Trump had squandered political capital, and that his rally appearances appeared to do more harm than good.