Trump’s Inflation Failure Could Cost Republicans at Midterms

WHO:

The Guardian - In the Guardian’s Harris Poll, 83% of respondents said gas prices were hurting their finances.

Alternet - Clinical and forensic psychologist Alan D. Blotcky said he had not interviewed or evaluated Trump, calling that an important limitation. Blotcky said Trump’s personality traits, rather than possible cognitive slippage, were causing the problems.

Alternet - Blotcky described Trump as a “malignant narcissist” and said he believed Trump was motivated by a desire to be “the last standing hero.”

Alternet - In an interview with The New Republic, Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg said Latino early-vote participation was up 41% compared with the prior midterm election; he cited increases across multiple states, including 58% in Georgia and 84% in Virginia.

Alternet - A Times poll found that more than a quarter of Hispanic voters personally knew someone arrested, detained, and deported by ICE.

Alternet - Fox senior political analyst Juan Williams accused Trump and MAGA allies of using deceptive political attacks against Democratic candidates James Talarico, Abdul El-Sayed, and Amy Acton.

Fox News - Sen. Roger Marshall said he was “not a political expert” but believed a Democratic win in Kansas would mean Republicans could not keep control of the Senate.

Fox News - Political scientists Don Haider-Markel of the University of Kansas and Nathaniel Birkhead of Kansas State University assessed the Kansas Senate race; Birkhead said Marshall’s close association with Trump created an opening for Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton.

CNN - President Trump made conditional promises to voters in states with key Senate contests, including offers involving Republican candidates Michael Whatley, Roger Marshall, and state-level Democratic candidates Amy Acton and Adam Hamilton.

The Guardian - A Harris Poll conducted for The Guardian found that nearly two-thirds of respondents believed the United States was experiencing a recession, and one-third said a surprise bill could leave them financially unable to cope.

Alternet - President Donald Trump spoke at a rally in Perry, Georgia; New Republic editor Michael Tomasky analyzed Trump’s remarks.

Alternet - Tomasky argued Trump may be less concerned about Republican election victories when his name is not on the ballot, may believe a Republican defeat would let him claim the party cannot succeed without him, and may benefit politically from conflict with a Democratic-controlled Congress.

Alternet - Tomasky said Republican candidates viewed Trump as a liability, and some were distancing themselves from him.

ABC News - AFL-CIO President Liz Shuler said voters focus on costs and pay not keeping up with costs, calling it “a double whammy.”

ABC News - Stephen Moore, who had advised Trump on the economy, said the Iran situation had significantly affected the economy and Republicans might pay a high political price.

ABC News - Voters interviewed included Misty Reeder, 48, and Sandra Capell, 69, in Easley, South Carolina; Beti Rosales, 47, in Allentown, Pennsylvania; and Amy Richards, 56, and Renee Blood, 57, in Round Rock, Texas.

ABC News - Democratic candidates cited included Sen. Jon Ossoff, Roy Cooper, Abdul El-Sayed, and Cait Conley; Conley was running against Rep. Mike Lawler in New York.

WHAT:

Alternet - Williams said a false claim circulated that Talarico had gone to an Ohio hospital for treatment for mental illness; he had stopped campaigning while recovering from the flu.

Alternet - Williams said Republican candidate Mike Rogers used AI-generated ads depicting El-Sayed laughing at calls for “Death to America.”

Alternet - Williams reported that Vivek Ramaswamy’s campaign used an ad featuring Amy Acton’s mother discussing Acton’s childhood trauma, then increased spending on the ad after criticism. Trump told Ramaswamy to “keep it up,” and JD Vance called the criticism “whining.”

Alternet - The Marshall Project reported that, from January 2025 to August 2025, ICE arrested 8,592 children and detained 8,755; 562 babies and toddlers were detained, and 54% of children released from ICE detention were deported.

Alternet - The article reported that nearly one million immigrants had been deported since Trump returned to power, as many as 80% without criminal records, and more than 500 U.S. citizens—most of them Hispanic—had been detained by ICE.

Alternet - Pollster Tom Bonier said Texas early voting was nearly 3 million; he estimated 217,000 votes came from people who had not voted in 2024, half of them Hispanic.

Alternet - Williams reported that Republican-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund had booked more than $5 million in television advertising supporting Ohio Rep. Max Miller, whose former wife accused him of abusing her and their daughter.

Fox News - Marshall said his race had been about 12 points ahead before the Iran war and that his poll numbers fell as fuel prices rose. He said he visits all 105 Kansas counties each year.

Fox News - Marshall said he did not believe he could win without Trump voters turning out, adding that most undecided voters were Trump supporters.

Fox News - Gas station signs along routes near Wichita showed gasoline prices just under $4 per gallon and diesel prices above $6 per gallon.

CNN - Trump offered every U.S. adult $5,000 if Republicans kept their congressional majority, and said he could offer up to $1 million to people reporting fraud that resulted in a conviction.

CNN - Trump tied potential federal actions to Republican victories: hurricane disaster aid for North Carolina, $100 million for a drug-manufacturing facility in Winchester, Kentucky, permanent year-round E15 fuel, and settlements for Camp Lejeune water-contamination claims. He also threatened to withhold help for Georgia farmers and said federal support for Alaska would stop if Mary Peltola won.

CNN - A Reuters/Ipsos poll found registered voters considered Trump’s $5,000 offer inappropriate by 66%-18%. An NBC News poll found fewer than one in six thought they would likely receive the money; voters said 46%-21% that a candidate supporting the offer would make them less rather than more likely to vote for that candidate.

Alternet - Alan D. Blotcky, a clinical and forensic psychologist, said he had not interviewed or evaluated Trump and described that as an important limitation on assessing him. Blotcky said Trump’s personality traits, rather than possible cognitive decline, were causing the problems.

Alternet - A USA Today report examined implementation of Project 2025, a 920-page proposal. The article said the Government Accountability Office found DOGE’s claimed $215 billion in savings largely unsubstantiated.

The Guardian - Inflation fell to 2.3% by April 2025, rose to 3% in September 2025, and was 2.4% in January and February 2026. It reached 4.2% in May and remained above 3.4% afterward.

The Guardian - The Strait of Hormuz was blocked after the Iran war began; the route typically carries one-fifth of the world’s oil.

The Guardian - Average U.S. gasoline cost $4.32 per gallon in mid-October, nearly $1.30 more than a year earlier. Prices were $3.81 in Texas, compared with $2.64 a year earlier, and $6.21 in California.

The Guardian - Employers added 181,000 jobs in 2025, compared with 2.2 million in 2024; unemployment remained just over 4%.

The Guardian - The S&P 500 continued rising, with economists attributing much of its acceleration to AI investment. The wealthiest 1% own nearly half of stock-market investments.

Alternet - Trump’s fundraising email showed him boarding a train and warned supporters, “In just 1 week, we might have to say goodbye to each other forever”; it claimed Democrats would file articles of impeachment against him on their first day and have the votes to remove him.

Alternet - A separate fundraising email warned that a Democratic Congress would “reverse everything I’ve done to Make America Great Again over the past two years.”

Alternet - Trump threatened to launch intensive new air strikes on Iran.

Alternet - Trump said the United States was making “a frickin’ fortune” from the Iran war, despite people paying more at the pump. He said his advisers warned him not to discuss the money while people were suffering from higher fuel costs.

Alternet - Tomasky disputed Trump’s claim about war-related profits. He cited Wall Street Journal reporting that Persian Gulf oil exports had exceeded pre-war levels and an OilPrice.com report that Asian orders for U.S. crude had fallen about half since September; he also noted U.S. oil exports to Asia had slumped as tanker shipping costs rose.

Alternet - Tomasky warned a Republican electoral defeat could give Trump an excuse to revive election-fraud allegations. He speculated the administration could challenge election-result certifications.

Alternet - The Justice Department sued to prevent Alaska from certifying its Senate race if Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan lost to Democrat Mary Peltola, arguing a second Republican candidate with the same name could confuse voters.

ABC News - Trump campaigned on lowering costs but said the country had entered an economic “golden age.” He called “affordability” “a con job by the Democrats” and said it “doesn’t mean anything to anybody.”

ABC News - Filling a Ford F-150 cost about $100, around $30 more than a year earlier. Mortgage rates had risen enough to depress home sales; consumer prices rose faster than paychecks over the preceding 12 months.

ABC News - Inflation was 3% when Trump took office and reached 3.7% the previous month. Trump claimed inflation was below 2% and “under control”; inflation had reached 9.1% in June 2022.

ABC News - Trump imposed double-digit tariffs on trade partners including the European Union, India, Japan, Canada, and Mexico; the U.S. government took stakes in several dozen private companies, and Trump signed broad income-tax cuts into law.

ABC News - Record-high diesel prices increased shipping and farming costs. Gas, groceries, rent, restaurant supplies, and plumbing costs were among expenses voters said had risen.

ABC News - Reeder said she and her husband’s rent had risen by hundreds of dollars during six years of renting. Rosales said her restaurant’s lime, avocado, and plumbing costs had increased and she was considering voting Democratic.

ABC News - Trump promised in his 2024 campaign, “With your vote in this election, I will end inflation.” Democrats used cost-of-living concerns in campaign ads and rallies; Ossoff said costs were higher for filling a truck, groceries, medical care, and home energy.

WHERE:

Alternet - Trump spoke at a rally in Perry, Georgia; the Justice Department lawsuit concerned Alaska’s Senate race.

ABC News - Voter interviews took place in Easley, South Carolina; Allentown, Pennsylvania; and Round Rock, Texas. The article also identified Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas as conservative states where high diesel prices created political trouble for Republicans.

WHEN:

Alternet - Trump’s Perry rally was held on a Saturday; the article said his remarks came days before the November 3 elections.

ABC News - The midterm elections were one week away. The article described inflation over the preceding 12 months and said Trump took office less than two years earlier.

ABC News - Trump’s campaign promise to end inflation was made during the 2024 election campaign.

WHY:

Alternet - Blotcky said Trump’s supporters and powerful institutions capitulate because of money and fear, including fear of lawsuits and having federal payments stopped.

Alternet - The article argued that Hispanic voters’ movement away from Republicans reflects distrust over immigration enforcement, not only inflation; it reported that legal immigration had fallen by half and the government was denying virtually all asylum seekers.

Fox News - Haider-Markel said conditions for Democrats in Kansas were unusually favorable; he noted the last race that seemed close was in 2020, but it ultimately was not as close.

Fox News - Birkhead said Marshall’s tie to Trump, whose brand he described as “not particularly popular,” was another factor in the race’s competitiveness; he said a race with Sen. Jerry Moran instead of Marshall would likely be less competitive.

CNN - Trump’s conditional offers were presented as an effort to associate voting Republican with receiving desired benefits, although a Reuters/Ipsos poll found most registered voters considered the $5,000 offer inappropriate.

Alternet - Brookings Institution senior fellow William Galston said the administration’s politicization of emergency aid was “one of the few remaining areas of genuine neutrality” to be politicized.

The Guardian - The Guardian reported that tariffs on imports preceded renewed inflation; after many tariffs were paused and found illegal, prices declined. It attributed later inflation increases to the Iran war’s effect on oil prices.

The Guardian - The Guardian said hiring growth was slowed by stricter immigration policies, tariff uncertainty, and higher supply costs.

Alternet - The i Paper correspondent Simon Marks said Trump’s fundraising appeal was intended to spur supporters to vote by suggesting his presidency could end if they stayed home.

Alternet - Tomasky said Trump’s appetite for confrontation could outweigh concern for Republican congressional power; investigations, subpoenas, and political fights could let Trump portray himself as under attack.

ABC News - Voters blamed higher costs on Trump’s tariffs and the ongoing Iran war. Democrats argued Republican policies compounded economic hardship while benefiting billionaire donors.

ABC News - Moore said financial stress was evident despite economic growth, low unemployment, rising median incomes, and a record-setting stock market.

HOW:

Alternet - The article said many Project 2025 policies were implemented through executive orders that a future president could reverse or rescind.

Alternet - The i Paper’s Simon Marks said Democrats would retain limited power even if they won both chambers: Trump could veto legislation, and overriding a veto would require two-thirds majorities in both chambers.

Alternet - Tomasky suggested a Republican loss could help Trump argue the party could not win without him or could be used to renew election-fraud claims.

ABC News - Democrats targeted vulnerable Republicans and districts Trump had won by double digits with campaign messaging about prices, wages, and economic policies.

(UPDATED October 27, 2026 11:04 UTC)

Rising fuel costs and economic anxiety are weighing on voters, with 83% saying gas prices are hurting their finances, nearly two-thirds believing the country is in a recession, and gasoline averaging $4.32 a gallon in mid-October. President Trump offered voters $5,000 if Republicans kept their congressional majority and tied potential federal aid and projects to election outcomes, while polls found most voters considered the cash offer inappropriate. Campaigns are also facing scrutiny over deceptive attacks, as Latino early voting has climbed sharply in several states and Kansas Republican Sen. Roger Marshall acknowledged his race had tightened as fuel prices rose.

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(UPDATED October 27, 2026 10:05 UTC)

Rising fuel costs and inflation are putting Republicans on the defensive, with Kansas Senator Roger Marshall saying his race has lost ground as gasoline prices climbed and that he needs Trump voters to turn out. Trump has tied cash offers and federal aid to Republican victories, including promising $5,000 to every adult if Republicans keep Congress, while polls found most voters viewed the offer as inappropriate or unlikely to reach them. Across the country, voters are grappling with higher household costs, and a poll found nearly two-thirds believe the United States is in a recession, even as Trump calls the economy a golden age and dismisses affordability concerns as a Democratic “con job.”

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(UPDATED October 26, 2026 23:09 UTC)

President Trump offered financial rewards and targeted federal aid to voters and states if Republicans hold their congressional majority, including a promise of $5,000 for every adult, but polls found most voters considered the payment inappropriate or unlikely. Those promises come as voters face higher costs: gasoline averaged $4.32 a gallon in mid-October, inflation had climbed above 3.4%, and nearly two-thirds of respondents in a Harris Poll said the country was in a recession. Trump called affordability concerns a Democratic “con job” while campaigning on lower costs, even as voters and labor leaders pointed to rising bills and paychecks that aren’t keeping up.

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(UPDATED October 26, 2026 16:10 UTC)

Nearly two-thirds of Americans surveyed believe the country is in a recession, and one-third say a surprise bill could leave them unable to cope, as higher fuel, food, rent and other costs weigh on households. Gasoline averaged $4.32 a gallon in mid-October, while hiring slowed sharply from the previous year, despite unemployment just above 4% and a rising stock market that benefits wealthier Americans most. At a Georgia rally, President Trump called affordability a Democratic “con job” and touted an economic “golden age,” even as he warned supporters of a Democratic Congress and threatened more air strikes on Iran.

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(UPDATED October 26, 2026 14:46 UTC)

Rising costs and wages failing to keep pace are central concerns for voters ahead of the midterm elections, as President Trump calls affordability a Democratic “con job” while claiming the country is in an economic “golden age.” Voters cite higher costs for fuel, rent, groceries and small businesses, and Trump’s former economic adviser Stephen Moore warned that the Iran conflict could carry a steep political price for Republicans. Trump has also warned supporters that Democrats could impeach him and reverse his agenda if they win control of Congress, while some Republican candidates are distancing themselves from him.

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(UPDATED October 26, 2026 12:48 UTC)

President Trump defended the economy at a rally in Georgia, calling it a “golden age” and dismissing affordability concerns as a Democratic “con job,” even as he said the United States was making “a frickin’ fortune” from the Iran war while fuel costs remained high. Voters described rising expenses for gas, groceries, rent, and small businesses, while consumer prices had outpaced paychecks and inflation had climbed to 3.7%; Democrats made those costs a focus of their campaigns, and Trump’s former economic adviser Stephen Moore warned the Iran situation could carry a heavy political price for Republicans. New Republic editor Michael Tomasky argued Trump may prioritize political conflict over Republican victories, while the Justice Department separately sued to block Alaska from certifying its Senate race if Republican Dan Sullivan loses to Democrat Mary Peltola.