Oil Swings as Iran Talks Progress and Export Risks Persist

WHO:

Euronews.com - US President Donald Trump said he was weighing a deal with Tehran and described the choice as, “do I make a deal with them, or do I finish them off?”

Euronews.com - Qatari mediators reportedly travelled to Tehran in coordination with Washington; Saudi Arabia’s defence minister, Pakistan’s army chief, and Turkey’s intelligence chief were due to attend regional security talks there.

Euronews.com - Yemen’s Houthi rebels, an Iran-aligned armed group, said they attacked Saudi airports and energy sites; Riyadh said it shot down additional missiles and drones.

Bloomberg Markets - Francisco Blanch, Bank of America’s head of commodities and derivatives research, discussed the oil-price outlook on Bloomberg Television.

OilPrice.com - UK Maritime Trade Operations and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps provided information about ships struck in Hormuz. Rahul Kapoor, S&P Global Energy’s global head of shipping analytics and research, commented on the limited number of sanctioned vessels that could return to mainstream trading. Ryan Fitzmaurice, a senior commodity analyst at Marex, discussed oil-market risks.

WHAT:

Euronews.com - Brent fell more than 6%, from about $117.40 per barrel at Friday’s close to around $110; West Texas Intermediate fell about 2% to $101.50.

Euronews.com - Brent’s Friday close was its highest since 19 March, about 2% below its early-March peak of $119.50. Before the conflict, Brent traded around $72 per barrel.

Euronews.com - Gulf crude exports excluding Iran returned to pre-war levels in September, according to Kpler. About 40% of those exports bypassed Hormuz by pipeline, versus 17% before the conflict.

Bloomberg Markets - Blanch said that if Iran resumed attacks on regional infrastructure, “$120 a barrel is probably on the cards on average for the next few months.”

OilPrice.com - Kpler estimated October Middle East oil exports exceeded pre-strike levels. Hormuz flows averaged 11.7 million barrels daily, compared with 9.8 million in September and a pre-war February average of 14.5 million, according to Reuters’ Ron Bousso.

OilPrice.com - UKMTO and IRGC information indicated at least 25 ships were hit in Hormuz during October’s first 20 days; the article said the total could be 40–50 because some attacks go unreported.

OilPrice.com - Kpler analysts reported crude crossing Hormuz fell 27% from a wartime high to at least 10.1 million barrels a day; seven commodity carriers crossed on October 6, the lowest count since late July.

OilPrice.com - Reuters reported at least 18 tanker attacks in the preceding two weeks. Kpler reported Persian Gulf oil flows averaging 8.5 million barrels daily, down from more than 20 million two weeks earlier.

WHERE:

Euronews.com - Regional security talks were planned in Tehran. Trump spoke at a campaign event in Port Huron, Michigan.

OilPrice.com - Tanker attacks and ship-to-ship transfers were reported in the Persian Gulf, Hormuz, and off Oman’s coast.

WHY:

Euronews.com - Oil prices fell as diplomatic efforts to calm the Iran war appeared to accelerate and Trump said he was considering a deal.

OilPrice.com - The article attributed persistent supply concerns to tanker attacks, high freight rates, ship-to-ship transfers, low oil stocks, and uncertainty about exports.

HOW:

Euronews.com - Trump claimed oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz were exceeding pre-war levels. The strait carried about one-fifth of global oil before the war.

OilPrice.com - Ship-to-ship transfers were used to move Gulf oil and contributed to record-high freight rates. Kapoor said sanctions relief would not immediately create equivalent mainstream tanker capacity.

(UPDATED October 26, 2026 16:11 UTC)

Oil prices fell as President Trump said he was weighing a deal with Tehran, while Qatari mediators reportedly travelled to Iran and regional security talks were planned in Tehran. Brent dropped more than 6% to around $110 a barrel, and West Texas Intermediate fell about 2% to $101.50, even as shipping disruptions and attacks on tankers kept supply concerns elevated. Yemen’s Houthi rebels said they attacked Saudi airports and energy sites, while Riyadh said it intercepted more missiles and drones; Trump warned that renewed Iranian attacks on regional infrastructure could push oil to an average of $120 a barrel in the coming months.