Polls Point to Democrats Winning the House by a Landslide

WHO:

Mediaite - CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten discussed polling and data on the midterm elections.

Mediaite - Enten said Democrats were “in ‘blowout territory’” in their effort to retake Congress.

Mediaite - The article said President Donald Trump visited Michigan to rally Republican support ahead of the midterms.

WHAT:

Mediaite - Enten said he had reviewed “hundreds, no thousands of polls and data points.”

Mediaite - Enten put the chance of a House blowout at 71%, versus 29% that one would not occur.

Mediaite - He estimated a 2% chance that Republicans would win at least 230 House seats and “blow out” Democrats, compared with a 69% chance that Democrats would do so.

Mediaite - Enten estimated a 57% chance that Democrats would win at least 52 Senate seats.

Mediaite - He put the chance that Republicans would win at least 51 Senate seats at 24%.

Mediaite - Enten estimated an 81% chance of a Senate blowout, defined as either party winning “with room to spare,” and a 19% chance the Senate race would be close and decided by one state.

Mediaite - Enten said one party was likely to win the Senate by at least one seat.

WHERE:

Mediaite - Trump’s visit to rally Republican support took place in Michigan.

Mediaite - Enten’s segment was shown via CNN on YouTube.

WHY:

Mediaite - Enten presented the forecasts as conclusions drawn from polling and data, saying, “the numbers do the talking and I just listen.”

HOW:

Mediaite - Enten described the House and Senate outlooks using estimated probabilities of seat outcomes and the likelihood of a blowout.

(UPDATED October 26, 2026 16:13 UTC)

CNN data analyst Harry Enten says Democrats are in “blowout territory” in their bid to retake Congress, estimating a 71% chance of a House blowout and a 69% chance they win at least 230 seats. He puts Democrats’ chance of winning at least 52 Senate seats at 57%, while estimating an 81% chance either party wins the Senate by a comfortable margin and a 19% chance the outcome is close and decided by one state. Enten says his forecasts draw on thousands of polls and data points, as President Trump visits Michigan to rally Republican support.