Polls Point to Democratic Midterm Edge, With a 23-Point Lead in New Jersey
WHO:
PBS - The PBS News/NPR/Marist poll surveyed registered voters; likely voters were identified by respondents’ estimated probability of voting.
PBS - Marist Institute for Public Opinion director Lee Miringoff said partisan crossover and independent voters’ support give Democrats an advantage.
PBS - Democratic strategist Joel Payne said opposition to Trump could help Democrats win the midterms, while not necessarily building a lasting coalition.
PBS - Republican strategist Melik Abdul said Republicans faced difficulty in the House, but he expected them to retain the Senate, possibly by one or two seats.
PBS - Trump campaigned for Republican candidates and made himself a focus of the Republican campaign.
New Jersey Globe - Fairleigh Dickinson University (FDU) poll director Dan Cassino said affordability and gas prices favored Democrats, while Republican-favorable issues were less important to voters.
New Jersey Globe - The New Jersey generic ballot measures overall party preferences, not individual congressional contests; Republican Rep. Tom Kean Jr. faces Democrat Rebecca Bennett in the competitive 7th district.
WHAT:
PBS - Among likely voters, 84% said they were enthusiastic about voting, including 59% who were very enthusiastic.
PBS - More than 8 in 10 Democrats and 44% of independents said their congressional vote was against Trump; 12% of independents said it was to support him. Half of Republicans said their vote was for Trump, while 42% said he was not much of a factor. Among self-described MAGA supporters, 39% said Trump did not factor much into their congressional choice.
PBS - Among registered voters, Trump’s approval was 38%, matching the low of his second term; 61% disapproved, the highest level Marist had recorded in either of his terms.
PBS - Likely Democratic voters ranked preserving democracy first among their issues at 43%, followed by cost of living at 39%; Republican likely voters ranked cost of living first at 31%, democracy at 23%, and immigration at 20%.
PBS - Among voters under 45, 42% said they were very enthusiastic about voting, compared with 68% of voters 45 or older.
PBS - Likely voters planned to vote on Election Day (40%), early in person (25%), or by mail (12%); 6% of Republicans planned to vote by mail, compared with 15% of Democrats and 15% of independents.
PBS - Eighty percent of likely voters said a losing candidate should accept election results; 5% said a losing candidate should definitely challenge the results.
PBS - A federal appeals court blocked the Justice Department’s effort to stop California from counting mail ballots from people the federal government called “likely” noncitizens. The California secretary of state said the administration had provided no evidence for its claim.
PBS - Further investigation found that every name initially flagged in the Justice Department’s accusation involving nearly 16,000 likely noncitizen voters in Nevada was a citizen.
New Jersey Globe - During the first three days of New Jersey early voting, Democrats cast 38,535 in-person ballots, compared with 22,541 Republicans. Compared with the same point the previous year, Democratic voting rose 27.9% and Republican voting fell 28.2%.
New Jersey Globe - Through Monday, 222,057 New Jerseyans had cast in-person early ballots: 120,933 Democrats, 60,140 Republicans and 40,249 unaffiliated voters. Another 486,670 mail-in ballots had been cast: 316,609 by Democrats, 91,344 by Republicans and 77,178 by unaffiliated voters.
New Jersey Globe - Combined mail-in and in-person voting totaled 708,727 ballots: 437,542 from Democrats, 151,484 from Republicans and 117,427 from unaffiliated voters, giving Democrats a nearly 286,000-ballot advantage over Republicans.
New Jersey Globe - In New Jersey’s 7th congressional district, 29,925 voters had cast in-person early ballots: 14,174 Democrats, 9,486 Republicans and 6,162 unaffiliated voters. In the 2nd district, Democrats led Republicans in in-person early voting 10,787 to 8,697, with 4,365 unaffiliated voters.
New Jersey Globe - The early-voting figures do not identify which candidates voters supported, and the article said Republicans could gain ground during the remaining early-voting period or on Election Day.
PBS - Among likely voters who had already voted, Democrats led 68%-31%; voters who had not yet voted were evenly split, with 48% favoring each party.
PBS - Half of Republican likely voters planned to vote in person on Election Day, compared with 31% of Democrats.
PBS - In the poll, 51% expected Democrats to win their local congressional race and 46% expected Republicans to win.
PBS - The Cook Political Report shifted its ratings for 47 House seats in Democrats’ favor during October.
PBS - Likely voters favored candidates with new ideas and change over candidates with experience by 14 percentage points.
PBS - Thirty-nine percent of likely voters said no campaign, party or civic group had contacted them to encourage voting. Contact rates were 66% among Democratic likely voters, 57% among Republicans and 55% among independents.
New Jersey Globe - When immigration was raised immediately before the turnout question, 86% of Republican respondents said they were very likely to vote or had already voted, compared with 73% when affordability was raised.
New Jersey Globe - The article reported that Republicans had lost ground among younger and Hispanic voters since the 2024 presidential election.
PBS - Likely voters favored Democratic congressional candidates 52% to 44%; independents favored Democrats by 13 points. Democrats led likely voters by 8 points for control of Congress and registered voters by 10 points.
PBS - Forty-four percent of likely voters said their congressional vote was mostly against Trump, 21% said it was for him, and 35% said he was not much of a factor.
PBS - Trump’s job approval was 40% among likely voters, with 59% disapproving, including 53% who strongly disapproved. Among independents, 34% approved and 64% disapproved.
PBS - Cost of living (34%) and preserving democracy (33%) were the leading issues for likely voters; immigration registered 12%. Thirty-eight percent said family finances had worsened in the past year, while 15% said they had improved.
PBS - Very enthusiastic voters included 71% of Democrats, 61% of Republicans and 48% of independents. More than 30 million ballots had been cast: over 15.1 million by mail and 15.5 million in person.
PBS - More than three-quarters of likely voters expressed confidence their state or local government would run a fair and accurate election; eight in 10 said losing candidates should accept results.
PBS - Ad spending in the 2026 midterm cycle exceeded $10 billion, according to AdImpact.
New Jersey Globe - FDU’s New Jersey poll found Democrats leading Republicans 55% to 32% among likely voters; among voters very likely to vote or already voting, the lead was 59% to 33%.
New Jersey Globe - Democrats led by 27 points when affordability was emphasized (58%-31%), 26 points for gas prices, and 25 points for checks on Trump’s power. The lead was 16 points for immigration and 19 points for transgender issues.
New Jersey Globe - Democrats led by 36 points after the Iran war was raised immediately before candidate preference (62%-26%), versus 15 points after immigration (53%-38%).
New Jersey Globe - Affordability mattered to 90% of voters, gas prices to 87%, immigration to 83%, the Iran war to 82%, and transgender issues to 38%.
New Jersey Globe - Democrats led among voters under 30, 63%-20%; Hispanic voters, 58%-29%; white voters, 52%-36%; and voters without college degrees, 49%-35%. Independents favored Democrats 36%-25%, with 25% undecided.
New Jersey Globe - Eight percent of Republicans planned to vote Democratic, while 5% of Democrats planned to vote Republican.
New Jersey Globe - New Jersey voters identifying as MAGA fell from 27% in January 2024 to 16% in March 2026 and 10% in the latest poll; about one-third of Republicans identified as MAGA, down from more than two-thirds in early 2024.
WHERE:
PBS - Trump held campaign rallies in more than a dozen states, including Texas, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa and Florida, and visited states he had won in 2024, including Alabama and Montana.
New Jersey Globe - FDU’s generic-ballot survey covered New Jersey voters and included the state’s competitive 7th congressional district.
WHEN:
PBS - PBS News, NPR and Marist conducted their survey from Oct. 19 to 20, 2026.
PBS - The poll surveyed 1,280 registered voters; its margin of error was 3.7 percentage points, and the likely-voter margin was 3.8 points.
New Jersey Globe - FDU surveyed 807 New Jersey voters from October 16-22; the margin of error was +/-3.4%.
WHY:
PBS - The article reported that cost-of-living concerns, dissatisfaction with Trump, and stronger Democratic enthusiasm were factors associated with Democrats’ polling advantage.
New Jersey Globe - FDU’s experiment found that emphasizing affordability, gas prices and checks on Trump’s power increased Democratic support; emphasizing immigration or transgender issues narrowed the lead.
HOW:
PBS - The PBS News/NPR/Marist poll collected responses by phone, text and online.
New Jersey Globe - FDU randomly asked respondents about three of six issues before asking their voting likelihood and preferred congressional candidate.
(UPDATED October 27, 2026 22:11 UTC)
Democrats lead Republicans 52% to 44% among likely voters in the national congressional ballot, while a New Jersey poll shows Democrats ahead 55% to 32%; polling analysts say affordability and gas prices are helping Democrats, and President Trump has made himself a focus of the Republican campaign. Trump’s approval stands at 38% among registered voters, with 61% disapproving, and 44% of likely voters say their congressional vote is mainly against him, compared with 21% who say it is for him. In New Jersey, Democrats have cast nearly 286,000 more combined early and mail-in ballots than Republicans, though those totals don’t show which candidates voters support, and national polling finds 84% of likely voters enthusiastic about voting.
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(UPDATED October 27, 2026 17:08 UTC)
Democrats lead Republicans 52% to 44% among likely voters in the national congressional ballot, while a New Jersey poll found Democrats ahead 55% to 32%. Cost of living and preserving democracy were the top concerns nationally, and voters favored candidates offering new ideas and change; in New Jersey, emphasizing affordability, gas prices or checks on President Trump’s power widened the Democratic lead. Trump has campaigned for Republican candidates, but pollsters and strategists said Democrats’ advantage may reflect dissatisfaction with Trump and stronger Democratic enthusiasm, while Republicans still expect to retain the Senate.
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(UPDATED October 27, 2026 16:14 UTC)
Likely voters favor Democrats for control of Congress by 52% to 44%, while a New Jersey poll found Democrats ahead 55% to 32% on the state’s generic ballot. Cost-of-living concerns and dissatisfaction with President Trump stand out: 44% of likely voters said their congressional vote was mainly against him, and his approval rating was 40%, with 59% disapproving. In New Jersey, Democrats’ lead grew when voters were asked about affordability, gas prices or checks on Trump’s power, while Republican strategist Melik Abdul said Republicans faced a difficult House race but could retain the Senate by one or two seats.