Fed and BOJ Set to Hold Rates, Maintain Cautious Stance

WHO:

ABC News - President Trump posted, “LOWER THE INTEREST RATES FOR THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND FAST!” hours after the Fed’s September rate increase.

Fast Company - President Donald Trump criticized the Fed for raising rates, largely blaming the rate-setting committee rather than Kevin Warsh, whom Trump appointed.

Bloomberg Markets - David Mericle is Goldman Sachs’ chief U.S. economist.

Bloomberg Markets - Richard Clarida, a former Federal Reserve vice chairman, predicted a December rate increase and possibly another in March.

Bloomberg Markets - Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented from the FOMC’s decision to hold rates.

Fast Company - Aditya Bhave, Bank of America’s head of U.S. economics, said elevated oil and gas prices could keep inflation high for several months and diesel costs could raise shipping prices broadly.

Bloomberg Markets - Casey Sprake, market strategist at AG Capital, said the Fed’s view had changed again, citing high energy prices.

Bloomberg Markets - Claudia Sahm, chief economist at New Century Advisors, said there was a strong economic argument for a quarter-point rate increase.

CNBC - Kevin Warsh is the Federal Reserve chair; Brett Ryan is a senior U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank.

CNBC - Krishna Guha is head of economics and central bank strategy at Evercore ISI; Mohamed El-Erian is chief economic advisor at Allianz.

Bloomberg Markets - Robert Kaplan, Goldman Sachs vice chairman and former Dallas Fed chief, said the Fed can wait one meeting before raising rates while it assesses economic indicators.

Fox Business - The Federal Reserve’s policymakers are expected to decide whether to change interest rates.

Fox Business - Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, said the Fed would likely wait until December to raise rates.

CNBC - All 16 respondents to a CNBC survey expected the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to keep rates unchanged.

CNBC - Kazuo Ueda is governor of the Bank of Japan.

CNBC - Homin Lee, senior macro strategist at Lombard Odier, said domestic economic factors support further tightening, but a fragile bond market could limit board consensus for consecutive hikes.

CNBC - Sosuke Nakamura, an economist at Citi Research, said he sees no clear signs of inflation accelerating enough to justify consecutive rate hikes.

CNBC - Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reportedly told lawmakers Japan was “on the cusp of shifting to a period of sustained inflation driven by rising wages,” while also citing higher import costs.

WHAT:

CNBC - The market saw about a 50-50 chance of a final Fed rate increase before the end of 2027.

Fast Company - The Fed’s press conference the previous month lasted about 30 minutes; Jerome Powell’s press conferences typically lasted about 45 minutes.

Bloomberg Markets - The FOMC voted 10-2 to keep the federal funds rate at 3.75% to 4%; Cook and Hammack were the dissenting votes.

Bloomberg Markets - New Zealand’s Reserve Bank voted 4-3 to leave its official cash rate unchanged; Governor Anna Breman said further increases were highly likely at coming meetings.

ABC News - Employers added 29,000 jobs in September, down from 162,000 in August and below economists’ expectations.

CNBC - Kevin Warsh has said he is highly reluctant to use the Fed’s traditional “forward guidance” practice.

CNBC - The Fed’s financial conditions index had tightened slightly since the September rate increase, partly due to stock-market volatility.

Fast Company - The average 30-year mortgage rate reached 7.4% earlier in the month before slipping; Oxford Economics estimated that higher mortgage rates had made buying a home unaffordable for 5 million more Americans since the beginning of the year.

Fast Company - The September consumer price index rose 0.3% in both August and September; the rate was 2.4% in February, before the Iran war.

Fast Company - The personal consumption expenditures price index for September was forecast to rise 3.6% year over year, up from 3.4% in August; core PCE inflation was forecast at 3.1%, up from 3%.

Fast Company - The Bank of Canada was forecast to raise its key rate by a quarter point to 2.5%; the European Central Bank was also scheduled to meet.

Fast Company - U.S. unemployment was 4.2%; FactSet forecast third-quarter economic growth of 3%, versus 2.2% in the second quarter.

CNBC - The labor market was described as “low-fire, low-hire,” with layoffs near their lowest levels since the late 1960s while unemployed people struggled to find jobs.

CNBC - Fed officials Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and New York Fed President John Williams had recently signaled a possible pattern of rate hikes at every other meeting.

CNBC - Citigroup economists expected easing inflation data could keep the Fed on hold and possibly lead to rate cuts next year, although the firm forecast a December hike.

CNBC - The Fed’s rate increase in September was a quarter percentage point.

Bloomberg Markets - Robert Kaplan cited high diesel prices and other structural pressures spreading through the economy, and warned aggressive rate hikes could damage already-weak sectors.

CNBC - September core CPI was 2.6% year over year, up 0.3 percentage point from August.

CNBC - The Chicago Fed’s financial conditions index showed slight tightening after the September rate increase.

CNBC - Fed funds futures indicated about a 10% chance of a rate increase at the current meeting and a better-than-80% chance in December.

CNBC - The BOJ raised rates last month to their highest level in 31 years.

Fox Business - Markets assigned a 90.6% probability to the Fed holding its target rate at 3.75%–4%; the probability was 84.5% a week earlier and 35.8% a month earlier.

Fox Business - The September consumer price index rose 0.6% month over month and 3.7% year over year, above the Fed’s 2% inflation target.

Fox Business - The CME FedWatch tool showed a 75.1% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed hike in mid-December and a 46.5% chance rates would be 50 basis points higher, at 4.25%–4.5%, by March.

Fox Business - Long said September inflation was hot across used cars, airfares, recreation, auto repairs, and medical costs. She said further hikes were likely, possibly including a couple in 2027, and that borrowing costs and mortgage rates above 7% could persist for at least a year.

CNBC - Survey respondents expected the BOJ to hold its policy rate at 1.25%, while signaling a possible hike in December or January.

CNBC - Japan’s September core inflation, excluding fresh food, rose 2.1% year over year, its highest level of the year. Inflation-adjusted wages rose 1.5% year over year in August, the eighth consecutive monthly increase.

CNBC - Reports by Reuters and The Japan Times said the BOJ was expected to declare that its 2% “underlying inflation” target had been met.

WHERE:

NBC News - The Federal Reserve is meeting in Washington.

CNBC - Ueda spoke at a conference in Tokyo, Japan.

WHEN:

Fast Company - The Fed’s policy meeting included a Wednesday press conference by Kevin Warsh; it was expected to be shorter than his predecessor Jerome Powell’s typical 45-minute conferences.

WHY:

ABC News - Bank of America Global Research said a rate hike could lead investors to worry about overtightening, while a hold could prompt questions about the Fed’s inflation-fighting credibility.

ABC News - Deutsche Bank Research said the Fed might prefer to avoid headlines about raising rates just before midterm elections, when affordability was a principal concern, though the election would not be a “primary consideration.”

Fast Company - Rapid expansion of artificial-intelligence infrastructure and higher energy prices were described as inflation drivers that higher interest rates would not easily curb.

Bloomberg Markets - Breman cited anchored inflation expectations, subdued wage growth, and weak domestic demand in explaining the New Zealand rate decision.

ABC News - Bank of America Global Research said a Fed hike could prompt investor concerns about overtightening, while holding rates could raise doubts about the Fed’s inflation-fighting credibility.

ABC News - Deutsche Bank Research said midterm elections would not be a “primary consideration” for the Fed, though it could prefer to avoid headlines about raising rates ahead of an election focused on affordability.

CNBC - Krishna Guha said the Fed faced “material execution risk” because limited detail on its assessment of inflation, employment, and the pace of tightening made policy communication challenging.

CNBC - Guha said that if inflation continued to disappoint or growth momentum failed to moderate, the Fed would add more hikes.

CNBC - Ryan said skipping the current meeting would give officials more time to assess economic data; he expected Warsh to signal that recent inflation readings reinforced the expectation of further tightening over time.

CNBC - El-Erian argued that monetary tightening could harm housing and consumer borrowing, and said fiscal containment—not monetary tightening—was the appropriate response to inflation and higher Treasury yields.

CNBC - CNBC survey respondents cited the BOJ’s recent rate increase as a reason to expect it to hold rates steady.

Fox Business - Fed policymakers avoid letting politics influence monetary policy and can be hesitant to change rates at meetings before elections.

Fox Business - Heather Long said a rate hike immediately before the election would face “a very high bar,” and the September inflation report was “not a five-alarm fire.”

Fox Business - Long said the Fed could wait because gas prices had eased from September highs and October inflation might be cooler; she said the September data did not require immediate action.

CNBC - A weak yen was raising import costs, while elevated energy costs were feeding into prices; government subsidies were absorbing some energy costs for consumers. Rising wages were also a potential source of inflation.

HOW:

ABC News - The September rate increase was expected to affect inflation with a lag of several months, as higher rates slow economic activity and reduce demand.

Fox Business - The CME FedWatch tool reported market probabilities for Fed rate decisions.

CNBC - The BOJ’s rate expectations were based on a CNBC survey of 16 respondents.

(UPDATED October 28, 2026 22:00 UTC)

The Federal Reserve voted 10 to 2 to keep its benchmark rate at 3.75% to 4%, with Governors Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissenting, as policymakers weigh persistent inflation against a weakening labor market. September inflation rose 3.7% from a year earlier, while employers added just 29,000 jobs, and President Trump urged the Fed to lower rates, criticizing its decision-making. Markets see a strong chance of a rate increase in December, while all 16 respondents in a CNBC survey expect the Bank of Japan to hold its rate steady.

(UPDATED October 28, 2026 21:00 UTC)

The Federal Reserve voted 10 to 2 to hold its benchmark rate at 3.75% to 4%, with Governors Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissenting, as policymakers weigh persistent inflation against a weakening job market. Rising energy costs, including diesel, are adding to inflation concerns, while September inflation remained above the Fed’s 2% target and employers added just 29,000 jobs. Markets are pricing in a possible rate increase in December, while President Trump criticized the Fed’s decision to raise rates and largely blamed the rate-setting committee.

(UPDATED October 28, 2026 20:00 UTC)

The Federal Reserve voted 10 to 2 to hold its benchmark rate at 3.75% to 4%, with Governors Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissenting as inflation and elevated energy costs keep pressure on prices. Markets see a December increase as likely, though economists are divided: some say the Fed can wait for more data, while others warn that diesel and fuel costs could spread through the economy and that aggressive hikes could hurt weaker sectors. In Japan, all 16 economists surveyed expected the Bank of Japan to hold rates at 1.25%, while rising inflation and wages have fueled expectations it could signal a hike in December or January.

(UPDATED October 28, 2026 16:02 UTC)

With inflation still elevated and energy costs threatening to spread through the economy, markets broadly expect the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady at its current meeting, while traders see a stronger chance of a hike in December. September inflation rose 3.7% from a year earlier, and employers added just 29,000 jobs, intensifying the Fed’s challenge as officials weigh persistent price pressures against a softening labor market and the risk of damaging rate increases. In Japan, all 16 survey respondents expect the Bank of Japan to leave its policy rate unchanged at 1.25%, though rising inflation and wages could set the stage for a hike in December or January.

(UPDATED October 28, 2026 15:00 UTC)

The Federal Reserve is weighing whether to raise interest rates as inflation remains elevated, with high oil and diesel costs threatening to push up prices across the economy. Markets largely expect the Fed to hold rates steady at this meeting, while many see a December increase as more likely; economists say officials are balancing stubborn inflation against risks to housing, borrowing and already-weak parts of the economy. In Japan, all 16 respondents to a survey expect the central bank to keep its rate at 1.25%, though rising wages, import costs and inflation could pave the way for a hike in December or January.

(UPDATED October 28, 2026 08:04 UTC)

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold interest rates steady, with officials weighing persistent inflation against a weak labor market and the risk that more tightening could strain housing and consumer borrowing. Markets see a greater chance of a Fed hike in December, though economists say policymakers can wait for more data, and some warn that inflation pressures may call for further increases. The Bank of Japan is also expected to keep rates unchanged after its recent hike, even as rising wages and import costs fuel inflation and officials consider further tightening.

(UPDATED October 28, 2026 04:00 UTC)

The Federal Reserve is weighing whether to hold interest rates, with markets assigning a 90.6% chance of no change as policymakers assess inflation and the economic outlook. September inflation remained above the Fed’s 2% target, and markets see a stronger chance of a rate hike in December, though economists say officials could wait for more data. In Japan, all 16 survey respondents expect the Bank of Japan to keep its rate at 1.25%, while signaling a possible hike later as rising wages and import costs sustain inflation.

(UPDATED October 28, 2026 02:02 UTC)

The Federal Reserve is weighing whether to hold interest rates, with markets assigning a 90.6% chance of no change and economists saying policymakers can wait for more evidence, despite September inflation running at 3.7% year over year. Markets see a 75.1% chance of a quarter-point Fed hike in mid-December, while economist Heather Long said easing gas prices and potentially cooler inflation could give the Fed room to wait. All 16 respondents to a CNBC survey expect the Bank of Japan to keep its rate at 1.25%, though rising wages and import costs are fueling inflation concerns and the bank could signal a hike in December or January.

(UPDATED October 28, 2026 00:10 UTC)

Markets overwhelmingly expect the Federal Reserve to hold its rate at 3.75% to 4%, while policymakers meet in Washington, though investors see a possible increase in December after September inflation came in at 3.7% year over year. Economist Heather Long said the Fed could wait because gas prices have eased and the latest inflation report did not demand immediate action, even as borrowing costs and mortgage rates above 7% could persist. In Japan, all 16 respondents to a CNBC survey expect the Bank of Japan to leave its rate at 1.25% unchanged, while signaling a possible increase in December or January as rising wages and import costs sustain inflation, but a fragile bond market may constrain further hikes.

(UPDATED October 27, 2026 22:13 UTC)

Markets put the odds of the Federal Reserve holding rates at 3.75% to 4% at 90.6%, while economist Heather Long said the Fed could wait until December as gas prices have eased and October inflation may be cooler. The Bank of Japan is also widely expected to hold its policy rate at 1.25%, though survey respondents anticipate it may signal a hike in December or January. Japan’s core inflation reached 2.1% in September and real wages rose for an eighth straight month, while a weak yen and higher import costs add to inflation pressures.