Seven Key Contests Could Determine Senate Control

WHO:

CNN - The article identifies Republican nominee Darline Graham as a candidate selected by Trump.

CNN - CNN said the Kansas and South Carolina polls show Democrats have opportunities in states where high-quality polling had been scarce.

CNN - CNN’s Isabelle LaBianco contributed to the article on Senate polling.

Fox News - Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan is facing a same-name challenger in Alaska.

CNN - Michigan’s Senate candidates are Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers; Texas’s are Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton; Maine’s are Democratic challenger Troy Jackson and Republican Sen. Susan Collins; Kansas’s are Democrat Adam Hamilton and Republican Sen. Roger Marshall.

Fox News - Sherrod Brown and Jon Husted are candidates in Ohio’s Senate race.

CNN - South Carolina’s appointed Republican Sen. Darline Graham and Democratic candidate Annie Andrews are running for Senate.

CNN - Andrews is a physician; Graham is the sister of the late Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham and had previously been largely unknown.

CNN - Minnesota Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan is running against Republican Michele Tafoya, a former TV sportscaster.

CNN - Florida Republican Sen. Ashley Moody is running against Democratic state Rep. Angie Nixon, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America.

CNN - Florida Republican Rep. Byron Donalds is running for governor against Democratic former Rep. David Jolly.

Fox News - Ohio Democrat Sherrod Brown leads Republican Jon Husted within the margin of error in a Senate race.

Fox News - Democrats are seeking Senate seats in states President Trump won.

WHAT:

CNN - At least six Senate seats were polling mostly within the margin of error, five were just outside it, and two others were competitive without high-quality polling.

CNN - A potential Democratic outcome of 49 seats would represent a one-third chance of Democrats remaining in the minority.

CNN - The article said the Senate could remain out of reach for Democrats even if they won one of the biggest popular-vote margins in recent decades.

CNN - In Florida, Ashley Moody led Angie Nixon 50%-44%; a University of North Florida poll had shown Moody ahead 49%-45%.

CNN - In Florida’s governor’s race, Byron Donalds led David Jolly 48%-44%; CNN said the 4-point margin was close to the poll’s 3.9-point margin of error.

CNN - The article said Democrats’ Senate outcomes could range from 47 seats to 55 or even 57; winning 50 seats would leave Republicans in control through Vice President JD Vance’s tie-breaking vote.

CNN - If Democrats won the margin-of-error races, North Carolina, Ohio and Alaska, plus Florida and Mississippi, they could reach 57 seats. If Republicans lost Nebraska, the result could be 57-42 if Dan Osborn did not caucus with either party.

CNN - A uniform 10-point shift toward Democrats from the 2024 presidential results in every state would yield Democrats 49 Senate seats.

CNN - Six of the last eight quality polls in Michigan and six of the last nine in Texas showed no clear leader; Iowa’s last five quality polls showed no clear leader.

CNN - Democrats would need to win 49 seats to remain in the minority if Republicans retained control; winning 50 would not secure the Senate majority.

CNN - The article said only once since 1981 has either party controlled more Senate seats than the 57-seat scenario: Democrats held 59 seats after the 2008 election and later reached 60 after a special election.

CNN - In Michigan, at least one in eight likely voters said they could still change their minds; El-Sayed’s lead over Rogers followed a race with no clear leader in CNN polling around Labor Day.

CNN - In Texas and Kansas, at least six in ten uncommitted likely voters were Republicans or Republican-leaning independents. More than nine in ten Maine likely voters said their choice was locked in.

CNN - In Maine, about three-quarters of likely voters supporting either candidate said their choice was motivated more by Collins than Jackson.

CNN - In Texas, Trump carried the state in 2024 by the largest margin of his three presidential runs; most Talarico supporters said their vote was primarily in support of him rather than against Paxton.

Fox News - Fox News reported that Trump was campaigning across the country as Republicans faced uncertainty in Senate races.

Alternet - Charlie Cook called a Democratic House sweep a “done deal”; pundits projected Democrats could gain five to 30 House seats.

Alternet - Republicans retained a clear financial advantage in the midterm elections, which the article described as the most expensive midterms in history.

Alternet - Trump said, “I don’t care about the midterms.”

Alternet - Thirty-six governorships are also on the ballot, alongside state legislative and local contests.

Alternet - Polling cited in the article found Trump’s approval underwater in 47 of 50 states; seven in ten Americans said the country was headed in the wrong direction.

Alternet - One survey found 48% of Americans said they were financially worse off than when Trump returned to office.

Alternet - The article reported that 48% of Kamala Harris’s 2024 voters were very enthusiastic about voting, compared with fewer than one-third of Trump supporters.

Alternet - Elon Musk had donated more than a quarter-billion dollars to Republican groups, including his own voter-turnout operation.

CNN - In Michigan, three-quarters of Abdul El-Sayed’s supporters said their vote was primarily in support of him, while 57% of Mike Rogers’ supporters said theirs was primarily against El-Sayed.

CNN - In Texas, 24% of likely voters viewed Ken Paxton unfavorably; 2% of Democrats viewed James Talarico negatively.

CNN - In Maine, 21% of voters who disapproved of President Trump supported Susan Collins, compared with 16% for Rogers, 12% for Roger Marshall and 10% for Paxton.

CNN - In Maine, 55% of Troy Jackson’s supporters said party control was their top concern; in Kansas, half of Marshall’s supporters said it was their top consideration.

CNN - In Maine, 79% of Jackson’s supporters were extremely motivated to vote, compared with 62% of Collins’ supporters. Collins-supporter motivation had risen 9 points since the previous poll, while Jackson-supporter motivation held steady.

CNN - In Michigan, El-Sayed led Rogers 49%-42% among likely voters; in Texas, Talarico led Paxton 49%-43%.

CNN - In Maine, Jackson led Collins 49%-45%, though CNN described the race as having no clear leader. In Kansas, Hamilton led Marshall 49%-45%, also without a clear leader.

CNN - Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats to take control; three of those seats are held by Republicans.

CNN - El-Sayed had support from 95% of Democratic likely voters, compared with 90% in the previous poll. Rogers’ unfavorable rating rose to 50% from 42% in early September.

CNN - Talarico had support from 63% of Latino likely voters and 64% of likely voters of color in Texas, including 22% of voters of color who said they backed Trump in 2024.

CNN - Hamilton had support from about 12% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters; 59% of his supporters said opposition to Marshall primarily motivated their vote.

CNN - Collins had an unfavorable rating of 54%; Jackson’s rating was 46% unfavorable and 39% favorable. Collins’ campaign advertising was noticed by 42% of likely voters, versus 27% for Jackson’s.

CNN - The New York Times/Siena poll was described as the first high-quality public poll of South Carolina’s Senate race.

CNN - 17% of Peggy Flanagan’s supporters said she was too far to the left.

CNN - The New York Times/Siena poll showed Ashley Moody leading Angie Nixon by 6 points.

CNN - The Florida governor’s poll showed Byron Donalds leading David Jolly by 4 points, close to the poll’s 3.9-point margin of error.

CNN - The article reported no high-quality polling in Nebraska or Mississippi.

Wired - Republicans were spending time and money on Senate races in historically red states.

The Washington Post - Democrats are heavily favored to retake the House, while control of the Senate is a much tighter contest.

Drudge Report - A headline characterized the South Carolina Senate race as a toss-up; another linked to The Washington Post’s article about seven races that could decide Senate control.

CNN - A New York Times/Siena poll found Graham and Andrews tied at 48% among South Carolina likely voters.

CNN - South Carolina likely voters favored Andrews over Graham by 13 points on having the “right experience to be an effective senator.” By 7 points, voters said Graham did not have the right experience.

CNN - Among South Carolina independents, 59% said Andrews had the right experience, compared with 31% for Graham. Andrews led independents 57%-37% and received 7% of Republican likely voters.

CNN - 62% of Democratic likely voters strongly agreed Andrews had the right experience; 35% of Republicans strongly agreed Graham did.

CNN - 39% of South Carolina likely voters said Andrews was too far left. CNN said Republican attacks referencing her comments on transgender rights and using an anti-transgender slur had so far fallen flat.

CNN - A New York Times/Siena poll put Flanagan ahead of Tafoya 54%-40%. Flanagan led independents 54%-39%; Democrats led Minnesota’s generic ballot by 18 points, and 57% of likely voters viewed President Trump strongly unfavorably.

CNN - A New York Times/Siena poll showed Moody leading Nixon 50%-44%; a University of North Florida poll showed Moody ahead 49%-45%. Nixon led independents 52%-38%, and 37% of likely voters said she was too far left.

CNN - The Florida governor’s poll showed Donalds at 48% and Jolly at 44%, with a 3.9-point margin of error.

Fox News - Fox News Power Rankings rated Senate control a toss-up.

WHERE:

CNN - The Senate contests discussed are in South Carolina, Minnesota, Florida and Ohio; CNN also cited Kansas, Nebraska and Mississippi.

CNN - Trump won South Carolina by 18 points and Kansas by 16 points in 2024; Minnesota backed Kamala Harris by 4 points.

WHEN:

Alternet - The article said the midterm elections would be held on November 3 and described the congressional term beginning afterward as the 120th Congress.

WHY:

CNN - CNN said Republicans could benefit if conservative voters in states Trump won by double digits in 2024 returned to the GOP in the final stretch.

CNN - The article said Collins’ competitiveness reflected her ability to defray criticism that she was too close to Trump; Maine voters were about as likely to view Jackson as beholden to Democrats as Collins to Republicans.

Alternet - The article said Democrats’ unpopularity and Republican-favorable gerrymandering were reasons for caution about predicting a Democratic sweep.

Alternet - The article said Democrats gaining either chamber would give them power to conduct House investigations and block nominations for senior judicial and government posts; Congress could also restrict funding for presidential orders.

CNN - The article said Republican attempts to portray Annie Andrews as an extremist had so far fallen flat.

CNN - The article said Florida had trended Republican in the Trump era and described the state as a second-tier Democratic target.

CNN - CNN said Graham faced questions about her qualifications and that voters’ assessments of the candidates’ experience helped explain the close South Carolina race.

CNN - CNN reported that the Minnesota poll suggested the electorate might be sufficiently favorable to Democrats to offset concerns about Flanagan’s popularity and ideological positioning.

HOW:

CNN - The Michigan and Texas polls were conducted online and by telephone from Oct. 20-27, 2026; the Kansas and Maine polls ran from Oct. 20-26, 2026. Voters were sampled from registered-voter lists and a probability-based panel.

CNN - The polls surveyed likely voters online and by telephone; sample sizes were 838 in Kansas, 783 in Maine, 768 in Michigan and 923 in Texas. Margin of sampling error ranged from 4.2 to 4.7 percentage points.

CNN - The reported polling came from New York Times/Siena surveys, except the earlier Florida Senate poll, which was conducted by the University of North Florida.

Fox News - Fox News assessed control of the Senate using its Power Rankings.

(UPDATED October 29, 2026 21:01 UTC)

The Senate map is highly competitive, but Democrats face a steep path to control: they need a net gain of four seats, and even winning 50 would leave Republicans in charge through Vice President JD Vance’s tie-breaking vote. Recent polls show Abdul El-Sayed leading Mike Rogers in Michigan and James Talarico leading Ken Paxton in Texas, while Maine’s Troy Jackson and Kansas’s Adam Hamilton also lead their Republican opponents; those races remain close, and Ohio’s Sherrod Brown is within the margin of error against Jon Husted. Democrats’ possible outcomes range from 47 to 55 seats or more, but even a large national shift could leave them short, as polling also shows contests in Alaska, Florida and South Carolina drawing attention.

(UPDATED October 29, 2026 19:01 UTC)

Democrats are seeing opportunities in several Senate races, with Abdul El-Sayed leading Mike Rogers in Michigan 49 to 42 and James Talarico ahead of Ken Paxton in Texas 49 to 43, while races in Maine and Kansas remain too close to call. The broader polling picture is mixed: Ashley Moody leads Angie Nixon in Florida 50 to 44, Byron Donalds leads David Jolly for governor 48 to 44, and Sherrod Brown leads Jon Husted in Ohio within the margin of error. Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats to take control, and even 50 seats would leave Republicans in charge because Vice President JD Vance could break a tie.

(UPDATED October 29, 2026 17:02 UTC)

New polling shows Democrats competitive in key Senate races, with Abdul El-Sayed leading Mike Rogers in Michigan and James Talarico ahead of Ken Paxton in Texas, while races in Maine and Kansas remain close. In South Carolina, appointed Republican Sen. Darline Graham and physician Annie Andrews are tied at 48%, and Democrats are also contesting seats in Ohio, Minnesota and Florida as Republicans defend a narrow path to Senate control. Democrats are heavily favored to retake the House, while Republicans retain a financial advantage and President Trump is campaigning nationwide amid uncertainty about the midterms.

(UPDATED October 29, 2026 13:02 UTC)

Several Senate races are competitive, with Democrats Abdul El-Sayed leading Mike Rogers 49% to 42% in Michigan and James Talarico leading Ken Paxton 49% to 43% in Texas, while South Carolina’s Darline Graham and Annie Andrews are tied at 48%. Democrats also lead in Maine and Kansas, though those contests have no clear leader, and polls show Peggy Flanagan ahead of Michele Tafoya in Minnesota as Republicans Ashley Moody and Byron Donalds lead their Florida races. Senate control is rated a toss-up, while Democrats are heavily favored to retake the House; 36 governorships and state and local contests are also on the ballot.

(UPDATED October 29, 2026 10:59 UTC)

Senate control is a toss-up, with Democrats needing a net gain of four seats and several races tightening even in states President Trump won. In South Carolina, Republican Darline Graham and Democrat Annie Andrews are tied at 48%, while Minnesota Democrat Peggy Flanagan leads Michele Tafoya 54% to 40%; Florida’s Ashley Moody leads Angie Nixon 50% to 44%, and Ohio Democrat Sherrod Brown is narrowly ahead of Jon Husted. Democrats also lead in early polling in Michigan, Texas, Maine and Kansas, though those contests remain close, while Florida Republican Byron Donalds leads David Jolly in the governor’s race by 48% to 44%.

(UPDATED October 29, 2026 09:59 UTC)

The Senate is shaping up as a tight contest, with Democrats needing a net gain of four seats to take control, while Republicans are also defending seats in states President Trump won. Polls show Democrats leading in Michigan, Texas and Minnesota, while South Carolina is tied, and races in Maine, Kansas and Ohio are close; in Florida, Republicans lead in both the Senate and governor’s contests. In South Carolina, Democrat Annie Andrews and Republican Darline Graham are tied at 48%, with voters giving Andrews an edge on experience, while Minnesota Democrat Peggy Flanagan leads Michele Tafoya and Florida Republican Ashley Moody leads Angie Nixon.

(UPDATED October 29, 2026 00:00 UTC)

Senate control is a toss-up, with Democrats targeting Republican-leaning states while Republicans also spend heavily on Senate races; Democrats are heavily favored to retake the House. In South Carolina, appointed Republican Sen. Darline Graham and Democrat Annie Andrews are tied at 48%, though voters favor Andrews on experience, while Ohio Democrat Sherrod Brown leads Republican Jon Husted within the margin of error. Minnesota Democrat Peggy Flanagan leads Michele Tafoya 54% to 40%, and in Florida, Republican Ashley Moody leads Angie Nixon 50% to 44% as Republican Byron Donalds leads Democrat David Jolly 48% to 44% in the governor’s race.

(UPDATED October 28, 2026 23:00 UTC)

Democrats are heavily favored to retake the House, but control of the Senate remains a toss-up, with races in several states President Trump won helping shape the contest. In South Carolina, appointed Republican Sen. Darline Graham and Democratic physician Annie Andrews are tied at 48%, though voters favor Andrews on experience and she leads among independents; Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan leads Republican Michele Tafoya 54% to 40%, while Florida Sen. Ashley Moody leads Angie Nixon 50% to 44%, and Ohio Democrat Sherrod Brown is narrowly ahead of Republican Jon Husted. In Florida’s governor’s race, Republican Byron Donalds leads Democrat David Jolly 48% to 44%, within the poll’s margin of error.