Poll Finds Tight Senate Races in Maine, Kansas; Democrats Lead in Texas, Michigan
WHO:
Fox News - The CNN poll covered likely voters in Senate races between Democrat Troy Jackson and Republican Sen. Susan Collins in Maine; Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton in Texas; Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan; and Democrat Adam Hamilton and Republican Sen. Roger Marshall in Kansas.
The Guardian - The article described Collins as the Republican incumbent in Maine, and Jackson as the replacement Democratic nominee after Graham Platner dropped out following allegations of sexual misconduct.
The Daily Beast - CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten said he would “rather be Troy Jackson at this point than Susan Collins” in Maine. Collins, 73, has served in the Senate for three decades and was first elected in 1996.
Fox News - Collins was the only Republican incumbent running in a state that voted for Kamala Harris in 2024. The article said Collins had voted for President Trump’s second impeachment in 2021 and against Pete Hegseth’s Senate confirmation in 2025.
WHAT:
Fox News - CNN’s September poll had Abdul El-Sayed at 47% and Mike Rogers at 44%; El-Sayed’s support among likely Democratic voters rose from 90% in September to 95% in October. The share of Rogers supporters motivated by opposition to El-Sayed rose from 41% to 57%, while Rogers’s favorability fell from 58% to 50%.
Fox News - In Texas, 24% of Republicans viewed Ken Paxton unfavorably, compared with 2% of Democrats who viewed James Talarico unfavorably.
Fox News - Donald Trump won Kansas by 16 percentage points in 2024.
The Daily Beast - A Marist University poll found Susan Collins at 47% and Troy Jackson at 49% among likely Maine voters.
The Guardian - The Trump administration reportedly promised Volkswagen executives tariff relief for companies investing in U.S. manufacturing. The proposed Commerce Department program, not yet finalized, would create carve-outs for companies that commit to building U.S. factories, ahead of the announcement of a $4 billion Audi plant in Georgia.
The Guardian - Vice President JD Vance called for an investigation into Mary Peltola’s alleged recruitment of a candidate named Dan Sullivan in Alaska’s Senate race. Vance said, “I think that we should certainly look into whether she committed election fraud,” while calling the alleged conduct “a great moral failing.”
The Guardian - Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy ordered an inquiry into whether Peltola’s campaign should face criminal charges or civil penalties over the alleged recruitment effort.
The Guardian - A federal judge declined the Justice Department’s request to make California segregate and withhold 20,000 ballots linked to alleged noncitizens. Judge David Carter wrote, “California and its people are sovereign, too.”
Fox News - In Maine, 49% of respondents favored Jackson and 45% Collins; at least 12.5% said they could change their minds. Forty-six percent said Collins would prioritize constituents over the Republican Party.
Fox News - In Texas, 49% of likely voters favored Talarico and 43% Paxton. Among voters of color, 64% supported Talarico, including 22% of those who voted for Trump in 2024.
Fox News - In Michigan, 49% favored El-Sayed and 42% Rogers. Ninety-five percent of likely Democratic voters supported El-Sayed; 57% of Rogers’s supporters said opposition to El-Sayed motivated their vote. Rogers’s favorability was 50%, down from 58% in September.
Fox News - In Kansas, 49% favored Hamilton and 45% Marshall. Fifty-seven percent viewed the Democratic Party unfavorably, compared with 38% who viewed Hamilton unfavorably. Fifty-nine percent of Hamilton’s supporters said opposition to Marshall motivated them; about 12% of Republican and Republican-leaning likely voters backed Hamilton.
The Daily Beast - A Marist University poll found Jackson at 49% and Collins at 47%. Enten cited Trump’s approval rating as an advantage for Jackson, while noting Collins had previously defied poor polling. He cited a Pew Research Center poll showing Trump’s net approval rating was 38 points underwater and said, “No president I’ve ever seen is in a worse position before a midterm election than President Trump.”
Fox News - Democrats needed to flip four Republican-held Senate seats to reach a 51-seat majority, according to the article.
WHERE:
Fox News - The four Senate contests were in Maine, Texas, Michigan and Kansas.
The Guardian - The article characterized Kansas as a normally deep-red state and reported that the Maine and Kansas contests had no clear winner.
WHEN:
Fox News - CNN’s September poll was released in early September; its October poll showed the updated Michigan figures.
Fox News - CNN conducted the poll by telephone from October 20 through October 27, 2026.
Fox News - The poll included 838 likely voters in Kansas, 783 in Maine, 768 in Michigan and 923 in Texas. Margins of sampling error were ±4.5 percentage points in Kansas and Maine, ±4.7 in Michigan, and ±4.2 in Texas.
The Daily Beast - Enten’s referenced Marist poll was conducted the week before publication.
WHY:
Fox News - The article said Collins’s Maine race had become a referendum on her own career; three-quarters of respondents from either party said their choice was motivated more by Collins than Jackson.
Fox News - In Kansas, Hamilton drew cross-party support despite broad unfavorable views of the Democratic Party.
HOW:
The Guardian - The Justice Department gave California election officials 48 hours to review a list it said identified noncitizens on voter rolls; Los Angeles officials found preliminary indications the list was inaccurate.
Fox News - CNN randomly sampled registered voters by telephone and reported results for likely voters.
The Daily Beast - Enten based his Maine assessment partly on Trump’s approval rating and Collins’s history of outperforming unfavorable polling.
(UPDATED October 30, 2026 10:39 UTC)
Democrats lead in Senate polls in Maine, Texas, Michigan and Kansas, tightening contests. In Maine, Troy Jackson leads Republican incumbent Susan Collins, 49% to 47%. Democrats need four Republican-held seats for a Senate majority; Kansas remains competitive.
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(UPDATED October 30, 2026 03:00 UTC)
CNN polls show Democratic challengers leading Republican incumbents in all four Senate races surveyed, with Troy Jackson ahead of Susan Collins in Maine, James Talarico ahead of Ken Paxton in Texas, Abdul El-Sayed ahead of Mike Rogers in Michigan, and Adam Hamilton ahead of Roger Marshall in Kansas. In Maine, a separate Marist poll also put Jackson ahead, while Collins’s race is seen as a test of her own record; in Kansas, Hamilton is drawing some Republican support despite the state’s strong Republican lean. Elsewhere, Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy ordered an inquiry into an allegation that Mary Peltola recruited a candidate in the Senate race, and a federal judge rejected the Justice Department’s request to make California withhold 20,000 ballots tied to alleged noncitizens.
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(UPDATED October 30, 2026 01:15 UTC)
Democratic challengers led Republican incumbents in all four Senate races surveyed by CNN, though the contests in Maine and Kansas had no clear winner. In Maine, Troy Jackson led Susan Collins, 49% to 45%, while James Talarico led Ken Paxton in Texas, 49% to 43%; Abdul El-Sayed led Mike Rogers in Michigan, 49% to 42%, and Adam Hamilton led Roger Marshall in Kansas, 49% to 45%. Collins’s race has become a judgment on her own career, while Hamilton drew some Republican support despite widespread unfavorable views of the Democratic Party; Democrats need to flip four Republican-held seats to reach a 51-seat majority.