With Three Days Left, Polls and Early Voting Shape Midterms

WHO:

CNN - Democrat Elaine Luria is seeking a rematch against Republican Jen Kiggans in Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District; Kiggans defeated Luria in 2022.

CNN - Democrat Hannah Pingree is running for Maine governor, and Democrat Matthew Dunlap is challenging former Republican Gov. Paul LePage in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District.

CNN - Democrat Rebecca Bennett is challenging Republican Rep. Tom Kean Jr. in New Jersey’s 7th District; Democrat Cait Conley is challenging Republican Rep. Mike Lawler in New York’s 17th; and Democrat Blake Gendebien is running for the open New York 21st District seat.

CNN - In Florida, Democrats Jared Moskowitz, Kathy Castor and Darren Soto are defending House seats; David Jolly is challenging Byron Donalds for governor; and Angie Nixon is challenging Sen. Ashley Moody.

CNN - Democrat Annie Andrews is challenging Republican Sen. Darline Graham in South Carolina; Democrat Scott Colom is challenging Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith in Mississippi.

CNN - In Texas, Tejano singer Bobby Pulido is challenging Rep. Monica De La Cruz; sheriff’s deputy Johnny Garcia is running for the open 35th District seat; and Katy Padilla Stout is challenging Brandon Herrera in the open 23rd District.

CNN - Michigan Senate candidates are Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers; CNN reported that Trump and other Republicans had made Islamophobic remarks about El-Sayed.

CNN - Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins is running for Alaska governor, and Democrat Mary Peltola is challenging Sen. Dan S. Sullivan.

CNN - Bradley Narduzzi, an American who has voted from Mexico for two decades, said he has noticed people becoming more cautious about expressing their opinions, including during his frequent trips to Texas.

CNN - The Trump administration changed the federal form used by citizens voting from abroad, removing an option for people who are U.S. citizens but have never lived in the United States to identify themselves.

CNN - The Democratic National Committee sued the Defense Department and the Office of Management and Budget over the overseas-voting form change, arguing it could make registration and ballot requests harder.

CNN - James Burns said Vote From Abroad helped him update his registration and understand state-specific ballot-return rules.

PBS - Detroit elections chief of operations Daniel A. Baxter said officials’ estimate to report about 95% of ballots on election night was not a statutory deadline or guarantee.

Roll Call - Inside Elections identified Democratic former Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown as narrowly ahead of appointed Republican Sen. Jon Husted in Ohio’s Senate race.

Roll Call - Inside Elections said Democratic former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper was running a strong Senate campaign.

Roll Call - Inside Elections said Republican Sen. Marsha Blackburn was in a closer-than-expected Tennessee governor’s race, with a conservative independent drawing Republican support.

Roll Call - Inside Elections identified Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa as challenging Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and Republican state Sen. Christine Drazan as within striking distance in her Oregon governor rematch with Tina Kotek.

CNN - James Burns said he left Arizona for Ajijic six years ago; Samuel McCree said he left Salt Lake City for Mexico City two years ago. McCree’s mother, Peg, belongs to the League of Women Voters.

Roll Call - Inside Elections projects Democrats could gain four to six Senate seats and 20 to 30 House seats. The party needs a net gain of three House seats for a majority and four Senate seats for a majority.

NPR - NPR correspondent Tamara Keith said the Republican nominee in Nevada’s 2nd Congressional District moved into the district to run for Congress, blamed his grandchildren for a misstep, and is still favored to win. The retiring Republican incumbent said he voted for a Libertarian.

NPR - Keith identified Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Maryland Gov. Wes Moore as potential Democratic presidential contenders whose Election Night remarks may offer clues about their plans.

CNN - Pope Leo XIV submitted a mail-in ballot, becoming the first pope to vote in a U.S. election and likely the first to vote in a secular democratic election.

PBS - Maine’s Senate ballot includes Republican Sen. Susan Collins, Democratic challenger Troy Jackson and six write-in candidates. Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows said the state may know the ranked-choice outcome the day after the initial results or the following day; historically, it has known the outcome the week after the election.

PBS - Alaska’s Senate ballot includes Republican incumbent Dan S. Sullivan and unaffiliated candidate Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. The Justice Department sued to block certification if the incumbent loses, alleging voter confusion; lawyers for Democrat Mary Peltola asked the court to dismiss the case.

CNN - The Mexican lakeside community of Ajijic has between 8,000 and 10,000 foreign residents.

NPR - Ashley Lopez said Alaska voters are again considering the state’s top-four nonpartisan primary system and ranked-choice voting, which voters have previously retained.

NPR - Nevada Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo, elected in 2022, is facing state Attorney General Aaron Ford.

NPR - Domenico Montanaro said only about 10% of congressional districts are competitive and that split control of Washington can stall legislation without compromise.

PBS - Ryan Macias, an election technology and cybersecurity expert, said states count and certify results according to laws passed by their legislatures. Joe Lenski, executive vice president of SSRS, said some close House and Senate races may take several days to call, and Alaska and California races may take a week or two.

PBS - Detroit elections chief of operations Daniel A. Baxter estimated officials would report results for approximately 95% of Detroit ballots on election night; he said they would try to finish tabulation by 4 a.m., but it could take longer.

CNN - James Burns, a retired American living in Ajijic, and Samuel McCree, a 45-year-old American living in Mexico City, described concerns about democracy and safety.

CNN - Bradley Narduzzi, an American who has voted from Mexico for two decades, said he had never before felt such uncertainty about voting: “This is the first time in my life — I’m in my 50s — that I’ve been worried about my vote.”

NPR - Domenico Montanaro, NPR senior political editor and correspondent, said national polls have generally measured the congressional “horse race” well, with a slight underestimation of Republican turnout; he cautioned that polls have margins of error.

NPR - Sam Gringlas, NPR congressional reporter, described covering candidates at an antique shop, a farmer’s market, a UAW picnic, a family farm and a smokejumper-themed brewery.

NPR - Tamara Keith, NPR senior political correspondent, said Nevada’s 2nd Congressional District race features a Trump-backed Republican nominee and a former Miss Nevada who is now a state legislator; the retiring Republican representative said he voted for a Libertarian.

Al Jazeera - Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, said a large Democratic lead in House polling suggests the House is “almost certain to flip to Democrats,” while the Senate remains “much more up in the air.”

Al Jazeera - President Donald Trump planned rallies in Iowa and Kansas; Republican Senate candidate Ashley Hinson and Senator Roger Marshall were among the candidates he was expected to support. Kansas Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton was identified as a megachurch pastor.

Al Jazeera - Texas Senate candidates Ken Paxton, a Republican, and James Talarico, a Democrat, focused campaign efforts on Houston. Democrat Mary Peltola was expected at a rally in Bethel, Alaska.

WHAT:

CNN - The Guardian interviewed nine voters across the political spectrum about political extremism, election confidence, priorities for Congress and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.

CNN - Voters interviewed by The Guardian offered differing views on election fairness, immigration enforcement, economic priorities, impeachment and Hegseth; one described the proposed livestreaming of an execution as “a lynching.”

CNN - CNN’s election-night guide identified races in Virginia, Pennsylvania and Maine as early indicators of Democratic performance, followed by contests in Georgia, North Carolina, Florida, Texas and other states.

CNN - CNN reported that Trump’s approval rating was lower than it had been before the 2018 midterms and below the levels of Barack Obama, George W. Bush and Bill Clinton before major midterm losses by their parties.

CNN - The article said all 435 House seats and 35 of the Senate’s 100 seats are contested in the midterm elections.

CNN - In 2022, an estimated 3.1% of eligible U.S. voters living in Mexico participated in the midterms.

CNN - The League of Women Voters was founded in 1920, the same year the United States ratified the constitutional amendment recognizing women’s right to vote.

PBS - In 2020, Donald Trump led Wisconsin’s early vote count by more than 100,000 votes; after Milwaukee finished processing mail ballots around 3:30 a.m., the count shifted toward Joe Biden.

PBS - Detroit spans about 140 square miles and has more than half a million voters; Troy, Michigan, has 66,000 voters.

Roll Call - Inside Elections moved Pennsylvania’s 1st District from Lean Republican to Toss-up; Arizona’s 2nd, Minnesota’s 1st, Virginia’s 1st and 5th, and Wisconsin’s 1st from Likely Republican to Lean Republican; and South Carolina’s 1st from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican.

Roll Call - Inside Elections moved Georgia’s Senate race from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic and Iowa’s from Tilt Democratic to Lean Democratic.

Roll Call - Inside Elections moved the Michigan governor’s race from Tilt Democratic to Lean Democratic.

Roll Call - Inside Elections said three Republican seats targeted through Texas redistricting were not looking easy to win: the open 9th District shifted from Likely Republican to Lean Republican, the 28th District from Tilt Democratic to Lean Democratic, and the open 35th District from Lean Republican to Toss-up.

Roll Call - Inside Elections made 64 rating changes: 45 House races, nine Senate races and 10 governor races. Sixty-three shifted toward Democrats and one toward Republicans.

Roll Call - Inside Elections’ House battleground expanded from 64 competitive races in March 2025 to 82, including 55 Republican-held and 27 Democratic-held seats. Its Senate battleground grew from five competitive races in January 2025 to 16, including 12 Republican-held and four Democratic-held seats.

Roll Call - The outlet compared the political conditions to 2006, when Democrats gained six Senate seats and 30 House seats.

NPR - NPR’s Domenico Montanaro said poll margins of error of plus or minus 3 or 4 percentage points represent a range of 6 to 8 points, and that horse-race polling is less useful than tracking statistically significant trends in public opinion.

NPR - Montanaro said incumbents may avoid debates to prevent giving challengers exposure; he argued debates can help voters understand candidates’ policies and give lesser-known candidates a platform.

Al Jazeera - Democratic strategist Celinda Lake said many voters were seeking change: “You got a lot of voters who say, ‘I’m going to do a Hail Mary for change, but I hope you do something.’”

PBS - A 2024 contested North Carolina state Supreme Court race took about six months to resolve.

NPR - NPR correspondents identified possible midterm indicators for 2028, including Jon Ossoff’s Georgia margin, performance by progressive and moderate Democrats, and whether Republicans distance themselves from Trump.

NPR - Montanaro said that if Democrats win a House or Senate majority, investigations and oversight of the administration would be the biggest effect; he said bipartisan AI guardrails could advance, although the president opposes AI restrictions.

NPR - Montanaro said only twice since World War II has the president’s party gained congressional seats in a midterm: in 2002 after 9/11 and in 1998.

NPR - NPR correspondents highlighted redistricting measures in Maryland, Colorado and Missouri, and a California wealth-tax ballot initiative backed by tens of millions of dollars in spending.

Al Jazeera - An Emerson College poll showed Kansas Democratic Senate challenger Adam Hamilton at 49% and Republican Sen. Roger Marshall at 45%.

Al Jazeera - Alaska’s Senate contest is one of seven toss-up races that could determine control of the Senate. The dispute involves two candidates named Dan Sullivan; Trump accused Democrats of recruiting an independent with the same name as the Republican senator to confuse voters. The Justice Department took legal action, and Mary Peltola denied involvement.

PBS - The U.S. Supreme Court upheld California’s policy allowing mail ballots postmarked by Election Day to arrive up to a week later. California counties must report most ballot results by the 13th day after the election, with some ballots counted within 30 days.

PBS - Ohio’s 2025 law requires most absentee ballots to arrive by the close of polls on Election Day, ending the previous four-day grace period.

PBS - As of the evening of Oct. 26, about half of Detroit’s 106,000 absentee ballots had been returned; the city has 38 drop boxes.

CNN - The Democratic National Committee sued the Defense Department and the Office of Management and Budget over a change to the federal overseas-voting form. The change removed an option for US citizens who have never lived in the United States to identify themselves on the form.

CNN - About 91,000 voting-age US citizens lived in Mexico in 2022; an estimated 3.1% of eligible voters there participated in that year’s midterms, according to the Defense Department’s Federal Voting Assistance Program.

CNN - Vote From Abroad helped Americans in Mexico update registrations, request ballots and understand state-specific ballot-return requirements.

Al Jazeera - RealClearPolling’s national congressional ballot average showed Democrats leading Republicans 51.4% to 43.2%, an 8.2-percentage-point lead.

Al Jazeera - An Economist/YouGov survey found 44% of registered voters expected Democrats to control the House, compared with 31% expecting Republicans to retain it. For the Senate, 39% expected a Democratic majority and 36% a Republican one.

Al Jazeera - An Associated Press analysis reported more than 43 million early votes, nearly 10 million more than at the comparable point before the 2022 midterms.

Al Jazeera - Texas had more than 6.3 million early votes, versus 4.2 million at the same point in 2022, a 50% increase. Georgia had more than 2.5 million ballots cast, exceeding the 2.3 million recorded in its 2022 early-voting period. Early voting increased by more than 30% in Maine, Michigan, North Carolina and Kansas compared with the same period in 2022.

Al Jazeera - One Georgia voter said, “We all just really want a better future for everyone, especially like the next generation.” Another credited social media: “Social media and the media has put voting in the limelight.”

Al Jazeera - Trump told a Florida rally, “You got to vote. Bad things happen when you get too confident, right? So let’s pretend they’re one point down.” Bill Clinton, campaigning in Mississippi, said, “I can’t tell you how many people I care for that have lost in Mississippi because of those who did not vote at all.”

WHERE:

The Guardian - The voter panel included Sally Rasmussen of Medford, Wisconsin; David Ferrari of Tallahassee, Florida; Sharon Anderson of Etowah, Tennessee; Patti Fucci of Roswell, Georgia; Morgan Akin of Redding, California; Yajaira Martinez of Pharr, Texas; Justin Daniels of Detroit, Michigan; Caleb Davis of Greenville, South Carolina; and Scott Akridge of Marietta, Georgia.

CNN - Americans in Mexico are following US issues including trade and tariffs, tighter immigration measures, and ICE operations.

NPR - NPR identified competitive Senate races in Maine, Iowa and Kansas, and gubernatorial contests in Illinois, Pennsylvania and Maryland as areas to watch for potential 2028 political indicators.

PBS - Detroit election workers collect ballots from drop boxes and transport them to Huntington Place for tabulation.

NPR - NPR correspondents highlighted House and Senate races in Nevada, Michigan, Texas, South Florida, South Texas, Georgia, and Alaska, along with ballot measures in Maryland, Colorado, Missouri, California and Alaska.

Al Jazeera - Campaign activity included Florida, Houston and Harris County, Texas; Atlanta, Georgia; Mississippi; and planned rallies in Iowa and Kansas.

WHEN:

Al Jazeera - Trump’s Iowa and Kansas rallies were scheduled for Sunday; Election Day was identified as Tuesday. The article said the early-voting totals were reported five days before Election Day.

WHY:

CNN - Paul Maslin said the expected late Republican polling surge had not materialized; he described the contest in Republican-leaning states as a question of whether Democratic leads were sufficiently “baked in” to hold.

CNN - Bill Miller said Texas election outcomes would depend on whether Republican turnout overcame a favorable environment for Democrats; he said, “There are more Republicans than Democrats.”

CNN - Bradley Narduzzi said immigration enforcement, deportation policies and border-control measures contribute to a tense climate in the United States.

PBS - Mail ballots arriving close to Michigan’s 8 p.m. Election Day deadline can take election workers additional time to process and count.

Roll Call - Inside Elections said frustrations in Oregon appeared to center on decades of Democratic control at the state level rather than Republican control federally.

NPR - Domenico Montanaro said debates can give lesser-known candidates a platform and help voters understand candidates’ policies, particularly because voters otherwise often encounter politicians through campaign ads, speeches, and curated social-media clips.

Roll Call - The article attributed Republican struggles largely to President Trump’s negative job-approval rating. It said the prospect of polls underestimating Republican support or Republican-leaning undecided voters turning out could affect results.

NPR - Montanaro said declining local journalism has left local newspapers and television stations with less money for rigorous, frequent polling, contributing to the prevalence of low-quality state polls.

NPR - Montanaro said presidential elections generally draw more voters than midterms, while presidential campaigns are easier to cover because they involve two candidates competing for one job.

PBS - Election officials said late-arriving absentee ballots can take additional time to process and count; in Michigan, ballots received by 8 p.m. on Election Day are included in the deadline.

PBS - Shenna Bellows said accuracy and reflecting voters’ will matter most in reporting results: “We will work as expeditiously and efficiently as possible to get results as quickly as we can, but what is most important is that it is accurate and reflects the will of voters.”

CNN - Burns said Americans abroad were concerned about possible post-election violence and the safety of family and friends. McCree said defending democratic institutions was especially important.

NPR - Montanaro said polling helps show statistically significant changes in public opinion, approval ratings and attitudes; campaigns and corporations use polls to guide spending, travel and messaging.

Al Jazeera - Trump’s campaign team viewed his in-person rallies as a way to mobilize Republican voters.

HOW:

CNN - CNN’s election-night guide said Virginia polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern, Pennsylvania and Maine at 8 p.m., Georgia and South Carolina at 7 p.m., North Carolina and Ohio at 7:30 p.m., Texas at 9 p.m., and Alaska at 1 a.m.

PBS - In Troy, Michigan, ballots have been counted before midnight in past elections, according to City Clerk M. Aileen Dickson.

The Weather Channel - Its Election Day forecast said a storm system would bring showers and thunderstorms to the Central U.S., including Chicago, Minneapolis, Kansas City, and Dallas; temperatures were forecast to be chilly from the Northwest through the Rockies and far northern Upper Midwest, then become comfortable by afternoon.

PBS - The U.S. Postal Service recommends mailing ballots at least one week before the deadline. Some jurisdictions begin verifying and preparing mail ballots before Election Day, while others, including New Hampshire, cannot begin until Election Day.

PBS - Mail ballots require processing that can include verifying voter identity and matching envelope signatures to registration records. Some states permit processing before Election Day; others, including New Hampshire, do not.

PBS - Maine and Alaska use ranked-choice voting for competitive Senate races: if no candidate gets more than 50% of first-choice votes, the lowest-ranked candidate is eliminated and those votes are transferred to voters’ next choices until someone exceeds 50%.

PBS - Alaska accepts ballots mailed from outside the United States for 15 days after Election Day.

CNN - McCree gave his ballot to a friend traveling to the United States to mail it, citing the cost and unreliability of Mexico’s postal service.

NPR - Montanaro said poll results should be presented with margins of error, historical context, campaign reporting and on-the-ground reporting; he said state polling includes low-quality and fake polls.

Al Jazeera - Early-vote totals counted in-person ballots and returned mail ballots, but did not indicate which candidates voters selected or predict final results.

(UPDATED November 1, 2026 12:56 UTC)

Democrats are mounting major challenges nationwide, while forecasts suggest gains in both chambers of Congress. A federal form change has prompted a Democratic lawsuit, raising concerns about overseas voting access. Pope Leo XIV cast a mail-in ballot, becoming the first pope to vote in a U.S. election.

(UPDATED November 1, 2026 12:00 UTC)

Democrats sued over a changed overseas voting form, warning it could complicate registration and ballot requests. Americans voting from Mexico described growing caution and uncertainty about participating in elections. Democrats may gain seats, while analysts say the House looks more competitive than the Senate.

(UPDATED November 1, 2026 10:00 UTC)

Democrats are gaining ground in House races, while Senate control remains uncertain. Sherrod Brown narrowly leads Ohio’s Senate race against Republican Jon Husted, and Roy Cooper is running a strong campaign in North Carolina. Analysts shifted several key race ratings toward Democrats.

(UPDATED November 1, 2026 06:56 UTC)

Election forecasts point to Democratic gains, with the House appearing more likely to flip than the Senate. Inside Elections shifted 63 race ratings toward Democrats, projecting potential gains across both chambers. Several Senate contests remain toss-ups, while close races could take days to call.

(UPDATED November 1, 2026 01:04 UTC)

The Democratic Party sued over a federal change to overseas voting forms. Alaska’s Senate race remains a toss-up amid legal action over candidates sharing a name. Control of Congress is uncertain, and a Democratic majority could bring investigations and oversight.

(UPDATED October 31, 2026 22:56 UTC)

Pope Leo XIV cast a mail-in ballot, becoming the first pope to vote in a U.S. election. More than 43 million early votes were recorded, nearly ten million above the comparable point in 2022. Control of the House appears more likely to shift to Democrats, while Senate races remain uncertain.

(UPDATED October 31, 2026 21:57 UTC)

Early voting has surged nationwide, with more than forty-three million ballots already cast. Polls suggest Democrats could flip the House, while Senate control remains uncertain. Americans abroad face voting hurdles, and states follow differing ballot-counting rules.

(UPDATED October 31, 2026 17:57 UTC)

Democrats sued over a changed overseas voting form, saying it excludes some Americans abroad. Early voting has surged, with more than 43 million ballots cast nationwide. Polling points to Democrats favoring a House takeover, while the Senate remains uncertain.

(UPDATED October 31, 2026 16:01 UTC)

Democrats lead the national House ballot by eight points, while Senate control remains uncertain. Early voting has topped 43 million ballots, nearly 10 million more than in 2022. Campaigns are mobilizing voters nationwide.