Polls Point to Seven Senate Battlegrounds as Top Seats at Risk of Flipping
WHO:
Fox News - The New York Times/Siena poll covered Democratic candidates James Talarico, Adam Hamilton, Sherrod Brown, Troy Jackson, Mary Peltola, Josh Turek and Abdul El-Sayed, and Republican candidates Ken Paxton, Roger Marshall, Jon Husted, Susan Collins, Dan Sullivan, Ashley Hinson and Mike Rogers.
Fox News - Siena Research Institute executive director Don Levy said Senate control for either party remained possible because many races were within the poll’s margin of error.
CNN - The article ranked 11 Senate contests by likelihood of flipping and said Democrats needed to flip four Republican-held seats while holding their own to win the majority.
CNN - The article identified Roy Cooper and Michael Whatley in North Carolina; Brown and Husted in Ohio; Talarico and Paxton in Texas; Jackson and Collins in Maine; Peltola and Sullivan in Alaska; Hamilton and Marshall in Kansas; Turek and Hinson in Iowa; El-Sayed and Rogers in Michigan; Chris Pappas and John Sununu in New Hampshire; Darline Graham and Annie Andrews in South Carolina; and Jon Ossoff and Mike Collins in Georgia.
WHAT:
Fox News - Democratic candidates improved their standing in six of the seven surveyed states compared with September polls; Alaska was the exception.
Fox News - Voters who decided within the past month favored Republican candidates by nine points.
CNN - North Carolina Democrat Roy Cooper led Republican Michael Whatley by 14 points in a final High Point University/YouGov poll. Over the final two weeks, Democrats spent $10.4 million on the race and Republicans spent $2.5 million.
CNN - In Ohio, Republicans spent about $141 million on advertising in October, compared with Democrats’ $102 million. President Trump visited Ohio three times during the final month.
CNN - In Texas, Republican advertising spending since the primary exceeded $278 million; Elon Musk accounted for $168 million. Texas early voting totaled 7.7 million ballots, and Latino voters made up a higher share of early voting than in the prior election.
CNN - In Kansas, 53% of likely voters viewed Sen. Roger Marshall unfavorably. Adam Hamilton had $2.9 million in campaign funds entering the final weeks, compared with Marshall’s $810,000; Democratic groups outspent Republicans in October, $45.7 million to $31.5 million.
CNN - Rep. Haley Stevens endorsed Republican Mike Rogers, and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer called her decision a “despicable betrayal.”
CNN - A New York Times report alleged that hundreds of former patients of Roger Marshall were sued over unpaid bills, with some arrested.
CNN - In Michigan, 1.5 million early votes had been cast by Sunday, approaching half the total cast in the state during the 2022 midterms.
CNN - South Carolina’s Senate candidates Darline Graham and Annie Andrews were each expected to receive about $17 million in outside spending over the final two weeks.
CNN - In the Texas race, James Talarico’s ad ran more than 6,000 times in the final week; Texas PAC spent nearly $10 million to air its ad more than 5,000 times.
CNN - In Michigan, the Senate Leadership Fund spent more than $3.75 million to air an ad about 1,500 times attacking Abdul El-Sayed. El-Sayed’s top ad featured his grandparents saying, “Stop listening to those lying ads.”
Fox News - Democrats led in Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Ohio and Texas; Iowa was virtually tied, while Michigan Democrat El-Sayed led by double digits.
Fox News - Poll results among likely voters: Talarico led Paxton 50%–43%; Hamilton led Marshall 49%–44%; Brown led Husted 49%–44%; Jackson led Collins 51%–45%; Peltola led Sullivan 48%–46%; Turek led Hinson 48%–47%; and El-Sayed led Rogers 53%–42%.
Fox News - Trump’s job approval was 38% among likely voters in the seven states. Democrats had a nine-point advantage on trust to address cost of living, and Democratic candidates led among independents in all seven states.
CNN - Its Poll of Polls showed Brown leading Husted 50%–45%; Jackson leading Collins 50%–46%; Turek leading Hinson 46%–45%; and El-Sayed leading Rogers 50%–45%. It found no clear leader in Texas or Alaska.
CNN - Republicans spent $560 million on advertising in the 11 listed races, compared with Democrats’ $521 million. Excluding Georgia and North Carolina, the figures were about $550 million and $469 million, respectively.
The Guardian - Early voting reached records in North Carolina, Texas, South Carolina and Georgia. North Carolina had more than 1 million Democratic early voters and 679,000 Republican voters; Texas had 7.6 million early votes, South Carolina nearly 1 million, and Georgia more than 2.8 million—13% above its 2022 midterm turnout. Early voting in Maine, Kansas and Michigan was up more than 30% compared with 2022.
WHERE:
Fox News - The seven surveyed Senate battlegrounds were Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, Texas, Iowa and Michigan.
CNN - Its 11-race list also included North Carolina, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Georgia.
WHEN:
Fox News - The poll surveyed likely voters from October 23 through November 1; state-level margins of sampling error ranged from ±3.4 percentage points in Texas to ±5 points in Alaska.
WHY:
CNN - In Iowa, voter concerns included rising costs for diesel, fertilizer and other goods; Democrat Rob Sand’s expected strong performance in the governor’s race could also benefit Josh Turek.
CNN - The article cited voter frustration over the economy, the Iran war and corruption as factors behind Democratic energy.
HOW:
CNN - The ranking drew on reporting and conversations with Senate-race strategists, candidate fundraising, polling and state political conditions.
(UPDATED November 2, 2026 16:01 UTC)
Democrats led in most surveyed Senate battlegrounds, while several close races could shift control. Their standing improved in six states, though late-deciding voters favored Republicans. Record early voting and heavy spending underscored the nationwide fight for the Senate.
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(UPDATED November 2, 2026 15:00 UTC)
Democrats lead several Senate battleground polls, though many races remain close enough to threaten either party’s control. Michigan Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads by double digits, while Iowa’s contest is nearly tied. Democrats hold a nine-point advantage on cost-of-living trust, and early voting has surged across several states.