Talarico’s Texas Senate Bid Surges in Final Polls as Paxton Race Tightens
WHO:
Newsweek - James Talarico, a Democrat, is running against Republican Ken Paxton for a Texas U.S. Senate seat; the articles’ headlines describe Talarico’s chances as reaching a record high and the race as tightening.
The Texas Tribune - Paxton is Texas’ three-term attorney general; Talarico is an Austin state legislator. Libertarian Ted Brown is also running.
The Guardian - Talarico is a 37-year-old, four-term Texas state representative, former teacher, Presbyterian seminarian, and former education nonprofit leader. He defeated U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the Democratic Senate primary.
The Guardian - Wendy Davis, a former Democratic state senator, called Talarico “Baby Obama”; Republican colleagues called him “Baby Gov.”
The Guardian - Donald Trump called Talarico “James Talafreako.” The article says JD Vance implied Talarico was gay, though Talarico has a girlfriend.
The Guardian - Elon Musk gave $158 million to the Senate Leadership Fund. The fund transferred the money to the Texas Pac, which ran anti-Talarico ads across Texas’ 22 media markets.
CNBC - Republican Gov. Greg Abbott is seeking a fourth term against Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa.
WHAT:
The Texas Tribune - Polls put Paxton and Talarico within the margin of error. The candidates campaigned across Texas to mobilize supporters, persuade undecided voters, and criticize each other.
Newsweek - Talarico said, “Texans are ready for change.”
The Guardian - Talarico’s campaign raised a record $64 million in the third quarter, including donations from many small-dollar contributors.
The Guardian - Musk-funded advertising falsely claimed Talarico supported taxpayer-funded gender reassignment surgeries for minors, the article reports.
CNBC - Kalshi traders assigned Abbott a 60% chance of winning and Hinojosa a 40% chance. Hinojosa’s Kalshi odds rose from 8% in mid-July; her Polymarket odds rose from 5% in late July to 39%.
WHERE:
The Texas Tribune - Key voting areas include South Texas and the border counties of Cameron, Hidalgo, and Webb; the Dallas-Fort Worth suburbs of Tarrant, Collin, and Denton; and Harris County.
The Guardian - Talarico was born in Round Rock, taught in San Antonio, and represents a suburban Austin-area district.
WHY:
The Texas Tribune - The Latino vote, suburban margins, rural turnout, Harris County turnout, third-party votes, and skipped Senate ballots could affect the outcome.
CNBC - Political observers are watching for backlash to artificial-intelligence data centers in the gubernatorial election.
HOW:
The Texas Tribune - Hispanic voters were 19% of the statewide early electorate, compared with 16% in 2022 and 17% in 2024. Early voting exceeded 2024 levels in Hidalgo, Starr, and Webb counties.
The Texas Tribune - Talarico announced a $25 million Black voter turnout initiative. Harris County’s early turnout rate was 39%, compared with 29% in 2022.
The Texas Tribune - Brown received 2.4% in the 2024 Senate race and was polling between 1% and 3% in October; polling averages had neither Paxton nor Talarico at 50%.
CNBC - Kalshi contracts are resolved using data from the Texas Secretary of State’s office.
(UPDATED November 3, 2026 01:08 UTC)
Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton are locked in a close Texas Senate race. Talarico raised a record $64 million, while Musk-funded ads attacked his positions. Early turnout is rising in key counties, as candidates court voters across Texas.