Bills-ravens Rout Fuels Week 9 Showdown Picks Against Vikings

WHO:

buffalobills.com - The Bills’ defensive backs recorded 13 pass breakups over their last two games, one more than their combined total across their first five games.

buffalobills.com - Safety Cole Bishop recorded a strip-sack against Baltimore.

buffalobills.com - Buffalo offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael described Minnesota’s defense as “a great defense” and said the Bills’ preparation and communication had been “really strong.”

buffalobills.com - Buffalo defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard said the team needed to move on to the next opponent, adapt its game plan, and put players in good positions; he said the Bills’ preparation for Baltimore was their best of the season.

buffalobills.com - Leonhard said Buffalo’s defensive backs were gaining rhythm and confidence and “hitting their stride.”

buffalobills.com - Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell said Kyler Murray’s hamstring was sore and that he was awaiting medical updates; Murray said the injury had not hampered him during the game.

vikings.com - Minnesota’s starting guards against Detroit were Joe Huber and Will Fries; they ranked 33rd and 41st among guards in Pro Football Focus grades.

vikings.com - Donovan Jackson, Minnesota’s guard, suffered a torn meniscus in Week 4.

buffalobills.com - Buffalo defensive backs held Las Vegas tight end Brock Bowers to four receptions with no touchdown and Baltimore wide receiver Zay Flowers to zero catches on five targets.

buffalobills.com - Buffalo linebacker Greg Rousseau led the Bills with six pressures against Baltimore; defensive lineman Deone Walker recorded a 19% pressure rate.

buffalobills.com - Cornerbacks Christian Benford and Davison Igbinosun had Week 8 coverage EPA figures of -5.8 and -4.7, respectively. Igbinosun’s catch rate allowed over expected was -74.6%; linebacker Dorian Williams led all NFL players at -90.2%.

buffalobills.com - Safety Damar Hamlin tied Benford for sixth in tight-window percentage at 50% and ranked ninth in average target separation, at 1.6 yards.

buffalobills.com - Buffalo’s offense is led by quarterback Josh Allen; offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael said the team’s preparation and communication against Minnesota’s defense had been strong.

buffalobills.com - Minnesota’s defense is coordinated by Brian Flores. Its leading listed pass rushers are outside linebackers Andrew Van Ginkel, with 6.5 sacks, and Dallas Turner, with six.

buffalobills.com - Buffalo defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard said the defense needed to adapt its game plans and praised the improving play of the defensive backs.

buffalobills.com - Vikings quarterback Kyler Murray had hamstring soreness. Coach Kevin O’Connell said Murray was being evaluated; Murray said it had not affected the game. Carson Wentz would start if Murray could not play.

buffalobills.com - Buffalo defeated Baltimore 36-10. Josh Allen completed 21 of 34 passes for 289 yards and two touchdowns; wide receiver DJ Moore caught three of four downfield targets for 78 yards and a touchdown.

vikings.com - Minnesota’s loss to Detroit was its first of the season. The Vikings fell in several published power rankings: No. 9 at NFL.com, No. 6 at Bleacher Report and CBS Sports, No. 8 at USA Today and The Athletic, No. 9 at Sports Illustrated, No. 5 at Sporting News, and No. 6 at Yahoo! Sports.

CBS Sports - The article’s Week 9 pick was Bills -3.5, projecting Buffalo to beat Minnesota 24-17.

WHAT:

vikings.com - Minnesota’s 89.7% blitz rate against Detroit was the highest by an NFL team since at least 2018, according to Next Gen Stats, surpassing its 85.2% rate against Indianapolis the previous week.

vikings.com - Minnesota had recorded 16 missed tackles on rushing plays all season before its Detroit game, when it missed 15 on rush attempts.

vikings.com - Minnesota’s seven games against Detroit on the day daylight saving time ended produced a 4-3 record; its 2026 loss made it 6-10 in Week 8 games played on that day.

Buffalo Rumblings - In the six listed No. 1 EPA-per-play offense versus No. 1 defense matchups since 2017, the top-ranked offense’s record was 3-3; across 16 such matchups since 2001, it was 10-6 and averaged 25.6 points.

vikings.com - Minnesota’s 230 rushing yards allowed against Detroit were its most under Brian Flores since his second game as Vikings defensive coordinator, in Week 2 at Philadelphia in 2023.

vikings.com - Detroit had 10 runs of at least 10 yards against Minnesota, matching the Vikings’ total allowed across their entire season before that game.

vikings.com - Minnesota’s 50 offensive plays were its fewest in a game since Week 13 at Seattle, its previous loss.

Buffalo Rumblings - In the six No. 1 offense-versus-No. 1 defense matchups since 2017, the top offense averaged +0.217 EPA per play entering the game and +0.059 during it; the latter figure would rank between the current No. 9 Patriots and No. 8 Bears offenses.

NBC Sports - The Week 9 picks projected Buffalo to beat Minnesota 22-17.

vikings.com - Minnesota’s 19-15 loss to Detroit ended its three-game winning streak in games played on the day daylight saving time ends; the Vikings are 24-26 in 50 such games since 1966.

vikings.com - Minnesota has played 16 Week 8 games on the day daylight saving time ends, going 6-10; its loss to Detroit ended a three-game winning streak in those games dating to 2009.

Buffalo Rumblings - Since 2017, the top EPA-per-play offense has gone 3-3 against the top EPA-per-play defense in six matchups. Across 16 such games since 2001, the top offense went 10-6 and averaged 25.6 points; seven times it recorded negative EPA per play.

CBS Sports - The Week 9 picks article projected Buffalo to defeat Minnesota 24-17 and selected Buffalo -3.5.

NBC Sports - The Week 9 picks article projected Buffalo to defeat Minnesota 22-17.

buffalobills.com - Buffalo’s 36-10 win over Baltimore was its first double-digit victory of the season.

buffalobills.com - Buffalo blitzed on 64.5% of Baltimore’s dropbacks, its highest rate since 2021; its blitz rate had not exceeded 39% in its first six games.

buffalobills.com - Buffalo generated 11 pressures while blitzing Baltimore, including seven quick pressures under 2.5 seconds, and recorded three sacks.

buffalobills.com - Buffalo allowed Baltimore 68 passing yards, tied for the fourth-lowest total in a game that season.

buffalobills.com - Baltimore threw on 61.2% of its plays against Buffalo, the league’s ninth-highest rate.

buffalobills.com - Josh Allen’s 43-yard downfield completion to DJ Moore was his longest completion measured by air yards that season.

buffalobills.com - Moore had a 28.7% target share and 42.3% air-yards share across his three full games, figures that would rank sixth and fourth league-wide, respectively.

CBS Sports - The article’s Week 9 pick projected Buffalo to win 24-17 and selected Buffalo -3.5.

Buffalo Rumblings - In the six No. 1 offense-versus-No. 1 defense matchups since 2017, the No. 1 offense averaged +0.059 EPA per play during the game, compared with +0.217 entering it; seven of 16 such matchups since 2001 saw the top offense post negative EPA per play.

vikings.com - Minnesota allowed 230 rushing yards against Detroit, its most under defensive coordinator Brian Flores since the coordinator’s second game with the Vikings.

vikings.com - Minnesota had recorded 16 missed tackles on rushing plays all season before its Detroit game, when it missed 15 tackles on rush attempts; 12 occurred in the second half.

vikings.com - Minnesota allowed Detroit an explosive-play rate of 16.2%, its highest under Flores, and recorded minus-0.78 EPA per drive on offense, the article’s second-lowest league ranking.

vikings.com - Minnesota’s 19 missed tackles against Detroit included 15 on rushing plays; Gibbs forced 12 missed tackles on 23 carries.

Buffalo Rumblings - Across 16 matchups since 2001 between the No. 1 EPA-per-play offense and No. 1 defense by EPA allowed per play, the offense averaged +0.217 EPA per play entering the game but +0.059 during it.

CBS Sports - Buffalo scored touchdowns on 70% of its red-zone trips this season, the fifth-highest rate.

buffalobills.com - Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores blitzed on a league-leading 73% of snaps and blitzed Indianapolis quarterback Daniel Jones on 85% of his dropbacks in Week 7.

buffalobills.com - Buffalo opponents went 2-for-4 in goal-to-go situations over the last two games, compared with 4-for-4 in Weeks 5 and 6.

buffalobills.com - Minnesota has recorded at least one sack in 35 consecutive games, the NFL’s longest active streak.

Buffalo Rumblings - The Bills-Vikings game is the seventh since 2017 to match the No. 1 offense in EPA per play against the No. 1 defense in EPA allowed per play. In the six previous matchups, the top offense went 3-3; across 16 such games since 2001, it went 10-6 and averaged 25.6 points. Seven times, the top offense recorded negative EPA per play.

vikings.com - In Minnesota’s loss to Detroit, the Vikings possessed the ball for 24:17, a season low; their 50 offensive plays and 18 rushing plays were also season lows.

vikings.com - Minnesota allowed 10 Detroit runs of at least 10 yards, matching the number of such runs it had allowed all season.

buffalobills.com - Buffalo won its first game after the bye for the 12th consecutive season.

buffalobills.com - Buffalo’s pressure rate against Baltimore was the NFL’s highest in Week 8, at 61.3%; its sack percentage was sixth-highest, at 12.9%.

buffalobills.com - Against Baltimore, Buffalo allowed 2.3 passing yards per play, third-lowest yards after catch at 52, and fourth-lowest yards after catch over expected at -10.

Buffalo Rumblings - Since 2017, the top EPA-per-play offense went 3-3 against the top EPA-per-play defense in six matchups. Since 2001, the No. 1 offense was 10-6 in 16 such games, averaging 25.6 points; seven times it recorded negative EPA per play.

buffalobills.com - Minnesota allowed 13.2 points per game, while Buffalo averaged 33.3. The Vikings led the league in points allowed and red-zone defense, allowing touchdowns on 25% of opponents’ red-zone trips.

buffalobills.com - Minnesota blitzed Jared Goff on 90% of his dropbacks against Detroit, sending extra rushers on 26 of 29; the article called it the highest single-game blitz rate by a team since 2018. Minnesota had 25 sacks and at least one takeaway in each of its first seven games.

buffalobills.com - Allen had completed 63% of passes against the blitz since 2024, with 26 touchdowns, nine interceptions, 8.3 yards per attempt, and a 103.0 passer rating. This season, his blitz figures were 66% completions, 8.4 yards per attempt, three touchdowns, three interceptions, and an 88.2 rating.

buffalobills.com - Over Buffalo’s previous two games, opponents completed 56% of passes against the Bills in Las Vegas and 46% against Baltimore. Buffalo allowed three touchdowns on eight red-zone possessions and recorded 13 defensive-back pass breakups, compared with 12 across its first five games.

buffalobills.com - Buffalo blitzed Baltimore on 64.5% of dropbacks and generated 11 pressures, including seven quick pressures; Cole Bishop recorded a strip-sack. Buffalo’s pressure rate was 61.3%, and its average time to pressure was 2.48 seconds.

buffalobills.com - Buffalo used man coverage on 54.8% of dropbacks against Baltimore, compared with 19.5% entering the game, and allowed 68 passing yards. Allen completed six of 10 downfield throws for 157 yards and two touchdowns.

vikings.com - Detroit beat Minnesota 19-15. The Lions rushed for 230 yards, including 164 in the second half; Jahmyr Gibbs ran for 153 yards and a touchdown and forced 12 missed tackles.

vikings.com - Minnesota blitzed on 26 of 29 dropbacks (89.7%), sacked Goff four times in the first half, and forced his first interception of the season. The Vikings had 19 missed tackles, 15 on rushing plays, and ran 50 offensive plays, including 18 rushes.

WHERE:

vikings.com - Minnesota’s 19-15 loss to Detroit was its seventh game against Detroit on the day daylight saving time ended.

CBS Sports - The Bills-Vikings game was listed for Monday night in Minnesota; the Week 9 schedule listing gave an 8:15 p.m. start on ESPN.

vikings.com - Minnesota lost to Detroit in Detroit.

WHEN:

CBS Sports - The Vikings’ next three opponents are Buffalo, Green Bay at Lambeau Field, and San Francisco.

WHY:

vikings.com - NFL.com’s Nick Shook said Minnesota’s defense finally crumbled late against Detroit, allowing a quick go-ahead touchdown drive, while the Vikings’ offense could not respond.

vikings.com - The Athletic attributed Minnesota’s loss partly to its offense’s minus-0.78 EPA per drive and the defense allowing its highest explosive-play rate under Flores.

buffalobills.com - The Bills’ recent defensive improvement followed a scheme change under Leonhard and the integration of six new starters. The article said improved coverage and more plays on the ball contributed to greater consistency.

CBS Sports - The pick favored Buffalo because Minnesota averaged 279.4 yards and 20 points per game, while Buffalo averaged 33.3 points per game.

vikings.com - Minnesota’s defeat followed a second-half decline in run defense, missed tackles, and limited offensive possession.

HOW:

buffalobills.com - Buffalo allowed three touchdowns on its opponents’ last eight red-zone possessions, compared with eight touchdowns on eight possessions in Weeks 4 and 5.

buffalobills.com - Buffalo changed to man coverage on 54.8% of dropbacks against Baltimore, up from 19.5% entering the game; it allowed 68 passing yards while using that approach.

vikings.com - Jahmyr Gibbs forced 12 missed tackles on 23 carries against Minnesota.

buffalobills.com - Buffalo generated 30 pressures against Baltimore, with 11 players recording at least one and eight recording multiple. Rousseau generated pressure on 27.3% of his pass rushes.

buffalobills.com - Buffalo’s defense posted -0.83 passing EPA per play allowed against Baltimore, the league’s third-best figure that week.

buffalobills.com - Flores’s pressure packages used simulated pressures and blitzes, sometimes lining up seven or eight players near the line of scrimmage.

vikings.com - Detroit’s rushing attack gained 164 yards after halftime after being held to 66 yards in the first half.

Buffalo routed Baltimore 36-10, its first double-digit win this season. The Bills pressured Baltimore and held it to just 68 passing yards. Minnesota surrendered 230 rushing yards to Detroit and now faces Buffalo.