CFP Race Heats up With FCS Bracket Forecasts, Upset Risks and Alabama Debate

WHO:

NCAA.com - The projected field includes Northern Arizona (10-2) and Youngstown State (9-2) among the at-large teams.

NCAA.com - The projected conference champions include Montana State (11-1), Monmouth (10-2), Dartmouth (7-3), South Dakota State (10-2), Central Connecticut State (8-3), Southeast Missouri State (8-4), Colgate (8-4), Dayton (10-1), Lamar (10-2) and Tarleton State (12-0).

NCAA.com - The projected FCS field includes automatic-bid teams Montana State, Monmouth, Dartmouth, South Dakota State, Central Connecticut State, Southeast Missouri State, Colgate, Dayton, Tennessee Tech, Lamar and Tarleton State.

NCAA.com - Projected at-large teams are Austin Peay, Campbell, ETSU, Harvard, Idaho, Mercer, North Dakota, Northern Arizona, South Dakota, Stephen F. Austin, UAlbany, Weber State and Youngstown State.

NCAA.com - Projected top eight seeds are Montana State (11-1), Tarleton State (12-0), South Dakota State (10-2), Youngstown State (9-2), Northern Arizona (10-2), South Dakota (9-3), Austin Peay (10-2) and Tennessee Tech (10-2).

CBS Sports - The five teams named as upset risks are Georgia, Utah, UCLA, Texas and Ohio State. Miami is excluded from the list.

Yahoo Sports - Ohio State quarterback Luke Fahey is set to start against Oregon; coach Ryan Day said, “We've got to do a better job around him, helping him out as a young player.”

Awful Announcing - Fox Sports analyst Joel Klatt criticized Alabama’s No. 5 CFP ranking, saying, “Ummmm, what was that?” and “Even Alabama fans are texting me, ‘LOL.’”

WHAT:

NCAA.com - The projected conference allocations are four teams each for the Big Sky and MVFC, three each for the CAA and SoCon, and two each for the Ivy League, Southland and UAC.

NCAA.com - Projected seeds 9–16 are Lamar, Monmouth, Stephen F. Austin, North Dakota, UAlbany, Mercer, Campbell and Harvard, respectively.

NCAA.com - The projection says the Patriot League gets only one playoff team, Colgate, and that no HBCU is projected to earn an at-large bid.

CBS Sports - Ohio State’s defense ranks 12th in the Big Ten in opponents’ third-down conversion rate, sixth in explosive plays allowed and eighth in red-zone touchdown percentage; the Buckeyes are 6-4 in their last 10 games under Ryan Day.

Yahoo Sports - The recommended wagers are Oregon–Ohio State under 46.5 points (-108) and Tennessee -6.5 (-110).

NCAA.com - The projected automatic-bid records are Dartmouth 7-3, Central Connecticut State 8-3, Southeast Missouri State 8-4, Colgate 8-4, Dayton 10-1, and Monmouth 10-2.

NCAA.com - Additional projected at-large records are Campbell 9-3, ETSU 8-4, Harvard 9-1, Idaho 7-5, Mercer 9-3, North Dakota 8-4, UAlbany 9-3 and Stephen F. Austin 11-1.

NCAA.com - Projected seeds 9–16 are Lamar, Monmouth, Stephen F. Austin, North Dakota, UAlbany, Mercer, Campbell and Harvard, respectively; the projection gives Harvard the No. 16 seed over Dartmouth despite Dartmouth’s head-to-head advantage because Harvard has fewer losses.

NCAA.com - The projected first four teams out are Lehigh (9-3), Idaho State (7-5), Montana (7-5) and Villanova (8-4); the next four are Chattanooga (7-5), Illinois State (7-5), UC Davis (7-5) and UIW (8-4).

NCAA.com - The projection gives the UAC two playoff teams, Tarleton State and Austin Peay, and identifies no HBCU as an at-large selection.

CBS Sports - Utah–BYU is described as a key Big 12 matchup: BYU would take the conference lead with a win, and BYU had won three straight in the rivalry after Utah won nine consecutive meetings from 2010–2019.

CBS Sports - Georgia is a 3.5-point favorite at Ole Miss; UCLA is a 5.5-point favorite at Minnesota; Texas is a 2.5-point favorite at Missouri; and Ohio State is a 7.5-point favorite against Oregon.

CBS Sports - UCLA is one of college football’s three remaining unbeaten teams. Minnesota would be ranked if it had not lost in overtime at Indiana.

CBS Sports - Ohio State’s spread against Oregon opened at 9.5 points and had fallen to near a touchdown by late Wednesday. Oregon quarterback Dylan Raiola threw for 336 yards and three touchdowns against Northwestern.

Yahoo Sports - Ohio State gained 464 yards against USC but scored one touchdown; Luke Fahey threw for 260 yards in his first start, while Bo Jackson and Isaiah West combined for 193 rushing yards.

Yahoo Sports - Kentucky was 7-1 with six consecutive wins. Its last three winning margins were each estimated to exceed its underlying performance by about four to five points.

Yahoo Sports - Tennessee co-defensive coordinator Anthony Poindexter said, “You can't hunt plays, plays will come to you.”

Awful Announcing - The first CFP rankings placed Miami No. 1, Utah No. 3, Alabama No. 5, Texas No. 7, Ole Miss No. 10, Ohio State No. 12, Tennessee No. 13 and Boise State No. 25.

Awful Announcing - Joel Klatt said, “Texas has far better wins than Alabama,” and questioned why Texas was ranked behind Alabama despite both teams having two losses.

Newsweek - The College Football Playoff is closer to a 24-team field for the 2027 season.

NCAA.com - The projected 24-team FCS playoff field has 11 automatic bids and 13 at-large bids. Eight teams receive first-round byes; 16 teams are seeded, with seeds 9–16 assigned for the second time.

NCAA.com - The projection gives four places each to the Big Sky and MVFC; three each to the CAA and SoCon; and two each to the Ivy League, Southland and UAC.

NCAA.com - The projected final at-large place goes to Weber State (7-5), ahead of Montana (7-5). The first four projected teams out are Lehigh, Idaho State, Montana and Villanova; the next four are Chattanooga, Illinois State, UC Davis and UIW.

NCAA.com - The article says MEAC and SWAC champions do not receive automatic bids because those champions do not participate in the FCS postseason tournament.

CBS Sports - The article describes a CFP format with seven at-large places, the highest-ranked Group of Six team, and four places for the highest-ranked conference champions. Its estimated conference champions are Georgia (SEC), Utah (Big 12), Miami (ACC) and UCLA (Big Ten).

CBS Sports - Miami is a 7.5-point underdog at Notre Dame and will be without Malachi Toney.

Yahoo Sports - The two recommended wagers are Oregon–Ohio State under 46.5 points (-108) and Tennessee -6.5 (-110).

Awful Announcing - Klatt objected that Alabama was ranked ahead of Tennessee despite Tennessee’s 26–10 head-to-head win, and ahead of Texas despite Texas having, in Klatt’s view, a tougher schedule and better wins.

WHERE:

NCAA.com - The projected automatic-bid conferences are the Big Sky, CAA, Ivy League, MVFC, NEC, OVC, Patriot League, Pioneer Football League, SoCon, Southland and UAC.

CBS Sports - The listed matchups are Georgia at Ole Miss, BYU at Utah, UCLA at Minnesota, Texas at Missouri and Oregon at Ohio State.

Yahoo Sports - The Ohio State–Oregon game is at Ohio State; Kentucky–Tennessee is at Tennessee.

Awful Announcing - Tennessee beat Alabama in Knoxville.

WHY:

NCAA.com - The projection gives Idaho an at-large bid based on projected wins over Eastern Washington, UC Davis and Idaho State, plus wins over Montana and Montana State.

NCAA.com - Weber State is projected ahead of Montana because Weber State’s wins include Idaho, Idaho State and UC Davis, while Montana’s only notable win is against UC Davis.

Yahoo Sports - Tennessee’s late loss at South Carolina followed a holding penalty that erased an 18-yard touchdown pass to Braylon Staley and a fumble at Tennessee’s 34-yard line; South Carolina gained four yards before kicking the winning field goal.

NCAA.com - The projection selects teams using available data and projected future regular-season results; the author says it reflects personal predictions, not the committee’s selections.

NCAA.com - Weber State is projected ahead of Montana because of wins over Idaho, Idaho State and UC Davis, while Montana’s notable win is against UC Davis.

CBS Sports - Georgia’s offense scored 20, 24 and 20 points in its previous three games; Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss had beaten Georgia in both career starts.

CBS Sports - UCLA faces cross-country travel and a noon ET kickoff at Minnesota; Minnesota lost in overtime at Indiana after Luke Drzewiecki made a 60-yard kick late in regulation.

CBS Sports - Texas enters its game against Missouri with several injured starters, including Hollywood Smothers and Trevor Goosby; Colin Simmons’ return is uncertain.

CBS Sports - Ohio State lost at USC, and Oregon is described as a possible threat after beating Boise State and USC and rallying against Northwestern.

Yahoo Sports - The article favors the game under because Fahey is a freshman making his second start and Ohio State may rely on its running game while he settles in.

Yahoo Sports - The article favors Tennessee because its defense is rated No. 4, while Kentucky’s recent winning margins allegedly exceeded its underlying performance.

HOW:

NCAA.com - The projection uses the Nov. 5 FCS selection committee rankings to guide the seeding of all 16 seeded teams.

NCAA.com - The author used the Nov. 5 committee rankings to guide seeding, then estimated regional placement for remaining first-round teams.

NCAA.com - The projected bracket awards bids through conference automatic qualifiers and at-large selections; head-to-head results, common-opponent tiebreakers, records and projected remaining games inform the predictions.

Yahoo Sports - Tennessee’s loss at South Carolina followed a holding penalty that erased an 18-yard touchdown pass and a late fumble at the Volunteers’ 34-yard line; South Carolina gained four yards before kicking the winning field goal.

The projected FCS playoff field includes 24 teams, with automatic and at-large bids. Montana State leads the projected seeds, followed by unbeaten Tarleton State. Ohio State prepares to host Oregon amid questions about Alabama’s playoff ranking.