Gulf Supply Rebound Pushes World Oil Market Into Surplus
WHO:
IJR - The International Energy Agency (IEA) said Persian Gulf exports are recovering.
Bloomberg Markets - The International Energy Agency said Persian Gulf exports are recovering.
WHAT:
IEA - Observed oil inventories rose by 52 million barrels (1.7 million barrels per day) in October.
IEA - Global oil supply increased by 2.3 million barrels per day to 105.4 million barrels per day in October, up 5.3 million barrels per day since August.
IEA - Gulf oil exports, excluding Oman, reached 18.4 million barrels per day last month, 26% below pre-war levels; crude flows reached 15 million barrels per day, 82% of pre-war levels.
IEA - The IEA raised its fourth-quarter 2026 global oil supply estimate by 3.3 million barrels per day.
IEA - Global supply is projected to recover by 6.6 million barrels per day to 108.1 million barrels per day in 2027, including a 5.3 million-barrel-per-day increase in Gulf production.
IEA - Oil demand is projected to fall by an annual average of 2.7 million barrels per day in 2026, then increase by 2 million barrels per day in 2027; petrochemical feedstocks are expected to account for almost 80% of 2027 gains.
IEA - North Sea Dated crude prices fell more than 30% from $136 per barrel on 8 October to around $93 per barrel at the time of writing, remaining $22 per barrel above pre-war levels.
IEA - Persistent attacks on Russian energy infrastructure are reducing diesel supplies to international markets; the IEA plans accelerated releases of emergency diesel stocks over the coming months.
IJR - The IEA said global oil supply is exceeding demand, returning the market to a surplus in the fourth quarter.
IJR - The IEA expects the surplus to grow in 2027 as supply rebounds.
Bloomberg Markets - The IEA said global oil markets will swing to a supply surplus for the first time since the start of the Iran war.
WHERE:
IJR - Recovering exports from the Persian Gulf are contributing to the global oil supply surplus.
Bloomberg Markets - Persian Gulf exports are recovering.
WHY:
IEA - Attacks on shipping threaten maritime security, which the agency said is pivotal to a sustained recovery.
IJR - Recovering Persian Gulf exports are pushing global oil supplies above demand.
IJR - High prices and disrupted fuel exports continue to weigh on demand.
Bloomberg Markets - The surplus is occurring as Persian Gulf exports recover despite the ongoing conflict.
HOW:
IJR - The IEA said supply is rebounding while conflict and risks to shipping continue.
Bloomberg Markets - The market’s shift to surplus is linked to recovering Gulf exports.
(UPDATED November 13, 2026 22:03 UTC)
The International Energy Agency says recovering Gulf exports are pushing global oil markets into surplus. Global supply rose by 2.3 million barrels daily in October, while inventories increased. The surplus is expected to grow next year, despite shipping risks and weaker demand.
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(UPDATED November 13, 2026 16:04 UTC)
The International Energy Agency says recovering Persian Gulf exports are pushing global oil supply above demand. Oil markets are returning to a surplus as supply rebounds, despite ongoing conflict and shipping risks. The agency expects the surplus to grow in 2027, while high prices weigh on demand.